167 FXUS64 KLZK 011715 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Quiet conditions are ongoing across the area early this Sun morning...but that will change over the next few hrs as isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA to the NW drops SE into portions of AR. This convection is result of an upper level weak shortwave currently over SRN/SERN KS...which will drop SSE over WRN AR through this morning. Chances for this isolated/scattered convection will be best over WRN sections through the mid morning hrs...then a break will be seen by midday. By this afternoon...there could still be some isolated SHRA...maybe TSRA..over portions of AR with this upper wave nearby. Cloud cover may prevent any coverage more than isolated...so have kept POPs this afternoon on the low end. By tonight...the upper wave will be south of AR...with upper level ridging moving overhead through Mon night. This will keep POPs low...but also allow temps to increase for Mon. Highs will warm from the mid 70s to mid 80s this Sun afternoon...to the upper 70s to around 90 for Mon afternoon. Dewpts may remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s into Mon...but as the upper ridge slides east by Tue...SRLY flow will increase at low levels in response to the increasing SW flow aloft. This increased SRLY flow will allow for increasing low level moisture...along with further warming temps for Tue afternoon. Dewpts may approach 70 for some areas on Tue afternoon...with heat index values peaking in the 90s for many areas. By Tue night into Wed...a weak upper shortwave will lift NE over NWRN sections of AR...with a cold front approaching from the NW. This will bring increasing chances for convection Tue evening into Wed morning for NWRN sections. This SFC cold front looks to stall over NWRN sections...or somewhere in the vicinity of this general area by midday Wed with the flow aloft nearly parallel. Some weak upper waves look to pass over this SFC front...keeping chances for convection forecast off and on through early Fri. Flow aloft will transition back to a somewhat zonal to weak NWRLY direction by late in the forecast Fri into the upcoming weekend. The SFC frontal boundary will still be draped across some portion of the region...with some continued chances for SHRA/TSRA forecast into the weekend. As mentioned in previous days...uncertainty on where this SFC boundary will be each day will keep some question on where the axis of heaviest rainfall will end up. Some guidance is pushing the SFC front further SE into AR...while others keep it further north and or NW into late week. Rainfall amounts across the region could range from 2 to over 6 inches for some areas...with latest indications the higher amounts over WRN AR and points further west. Lesser amounts on the order of 1 to 3 inches are forecast further south and east through late week. Any adjustment in the SFC boundary can cause the heavy rain axis to shift east or west. Future Flood Watch headlines may be needed as this time gets closer...and better confidence exists on where the heaviest rainfall may occur. There will also be some potential for a few strong/SVR TSRA mid to late week. Pinpointing details of timing and potential for any organized SVR Wx are a bit difficult at this time. This will depend on daily positions of the SFC front and ripples in the upper flow that could enhance lift and instability. This will become more clear in the coming days as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 For the 18Z TAFS... Apart from some scattered rain showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm VFR conditions are expected through the valid forecast period. There may be a few hours of MVFR fog around dawn on Monday, but any fog that develops is expected to dissipate quickly. Cavanaugh && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 64 86 68 88 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 62 89 67 89 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 62 84 66 84 / 0 0 0 20 Hot Springs AR 63 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 65 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 65 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 62 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 62 85 67 86 / 0 0 0 20 Newport AR 66 87 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 64 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 64 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 10 Searcy AR 64 87 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 66 87 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...66