893
FXUS64 KLZK 221141
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
541 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 118 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

-Low rain chances through early week before drying and warming
 conditions

-Well above normal temperatures starting Tuesday and persisting
 through the rest of the week

-Next rain chances over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Surface dewpoints in the upper 20s to lower 30s continue to
linger early this morning, but with increasing moisture return out
of the southwest in the lower atmosphere will result in dewpoints
in the 50s by this evening. With enhanced low level moisture in
place going into the middle of the week, a couple of week waves
may result in some light shower activity, although chances remain
relatively low (10-20%) across the region.

Mid to upper level ridging will amplify across the center of the
country through the middle portions of the week, resulting in a
sharp warming and drying trend starting Tuesday. Highs in the 70s
may occur as early as Tuesday (50-80% chance), and continuing
more towards the middle 70s through the Christmas holiday.
Depending on location, record high temperatures may be in play
Wednesday through Friday, as record highs from Dec 24-26 range
from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

Uncertainty in the weather pattern grows going through the
weekend, although highs in the 70s should continue through
Saturday. The spread in the weather outlook late this weekend into
early next week is in regards to a Pacific trough that`ll deepen
throughout this week and either remain progressive or cutoff from
the main flow. Should the progressive pattern prevail, much cooler
temperatures near normal may begin as early as Sunday with
increasing rain chances. Otherwise, temperatures will remain well
above normal going into next week, with rain chances delayed
towards the end or beyond the extended forecast until the cutoff
low off the West Coast ejects eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

MVFR ceilings mainly across central to southern Arkansas will
persist through the morning hours before ceilings lift to mostly
VFR ceilings through the afternoon. Later this evening, MVFR and
even IFR ceilings will redevelop, with the lowest ceilings across
southern Arkansas. Light and variable winds out of the easterly
direction will veer to a southerly direction later today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  51  71  58 /  10  10  10  10
Camden AR         67  59  72  57 /  10  10  10  10
Harrison AR       63  50  72  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    62  55  71  59 /  10  20  10  10
Little Rock   AR  61  54  71  59 /  10  20  20  10
Monticello AR     69  62  73  58 /  10  20  20   0
Mount Ida AR      65  55  72  60 /  10  10  10  10
Mountain Home AR  61  49  72  57 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        58  54  71  60 /  10  10  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     65  59  72  59 /  10  20  20  10
Russellville AR   62  52  73  59 /   0  10  10  10
Searcy AR         59  52  71  57 /  10  20  10  10
Stuttgart AR      62  58  71  60 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...77