679 FXUS64 KLZK 122254 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 554 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Overall pattern remains unsettled through the weekend with periods of showers and thunderstorms. - Several inches of rain are expected across the county warning area including areas that have already seen heavy rain, leading to a slight expansion of the flash flood watch. - Summer heat and humidity return next week with heat index values close to 100 in spots and possible heat related headlines. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 All guidance continues to indicate the very unsettled pattern we are currently in will continue through the weekend. As such very few changes have been made to the previous forecast package. Upper low/trough is currently over eastern Oklahoma and slowly wobbling off to the north and east. With the system essentially cut off from the prevailing flow, it will take several days, at least, for it to finally clear the area. The position of the low and an upper high parked over the western Caribbean is keeping a continuously flow of moisture over the region. PWATS are forecast to be between 1.75 and 2 inches through the majority of the period along with dew points in excess of 70 for much of the forecast area. Several impulses moving through the trough will produce waves of precipitation much like what was seen across the state today. With the amount of rain some parts of the southwest have already seen, the fact the rain is falling on saturated ground and the additional QPF expected, the flash flood watch will be held onto and expanded slightly to the north. The overall threat of severe weather is low this afternoon but some of the storms that do develop could produce gusty winds and the SPC marginal threat looks good. The upper low/trough combo traverses the AR/MO border but only makes it to the Mississippi River by Saturday morning. The system finally pushes off to the east during the day but a final wave moving through the NW flow will bring one final round of heavier precipitation to the area. However, several weak waves will still move across the area through Tuesday morning with at least slight chance to chance POPs. Overall, it looks like an additional three to four inches of rain is expected across central and west central Arkansas with locally heavier amounts not out the realm of possibility. Guidance remains consistent in developing ridging towards the middle part of next week. Summer like conditions are expected to return with heat index values approaching the century mark in many areas. heat related headlines are not out of the question. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 The stalled low pressure area over the southern plains will be the main impacts driver over the next 24 hours. Currently a line of thunderstorms is moving through eastern Arkansas with some isolated showers over SW Arkansas under an upper level features. This feature will continue to move eastward overnight, returning the potential for showers and thunderstorms over central and northern Arkansas. The main impacts from these storms will be lowering of ceilings to MVFR and periods of IFR visibility in heavy rain. Lightning will be a threat, but will be hit or miss over the area so VCTS is mostly seen throughout the TAFs. Northern Arkansas has the best chance to see storms overnight after 6Z. The on and off again storms will be present for the entire period as the low pressure system moves through. VCTS was utilized to show this potential for now, but as we get close to each wave moving through more Prob30 and Tempo TSRA will likely get added to the TAFs as certainty increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 69 82 69 87 / 90 70 60 60 Camden AR 68 86 70 86 / 70 50 60 70 Harrison AR 66 77 66 84 / 90 80 40 30 Hot Springs AR 68 85 69 86 / 70 60 60 50 Little Rock AR 69 85 71 87 / 90 70 60 60 Monticello AR 71 85 71 86 / 70 70 60 80 Mount Ida AR 67 85 69 87 / 70 70 50 50 Mountain Home AR 67 79 66 85 / 80 70 50 40 Newport AR 70 84 70 87 / 90 70 60 70 Pine Bluff AR 70 86 70 85 / 90 70 60 70 Russellville AR 69 83 69 88 / 90 70 50 50 Searcy AR 69 85 69 87 / 80 60 60 60 Stuttgart AR 71 85 71 85 / 90 70 60 70 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday evening for ARZ042-043-052>055-062- 063-066>068-137-140-141-237-240-241-340-341. && $$ DISCUSSION...56 AVIATION...BARHAM