167
FXUS64 KLZK 011715
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Quiet conditions are ongoing across the area early this Sun
morning...but that will change over the next few hrs as
isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA to the NW drops SE into portions of AR.
This convection is result of an upper level weak shortwave currently
over SRN/SERN KS...which will drop SSE over WRN AR through this
morning. Chances for this isolated/scattered convection will be best
over WRN sections through the mid morning hrs...then a break will be
seen by midday. By this afternoon...there could still be some
isolated SHRA...maybe TSRA..over portions of AR with this upper wave
nearby. Cloud cover may prevent any coverage more than isolated...so
have kept POPs this afternoon on the low end.

By tonight...the upper wave will be south of AR...with upper level
ridging moving overhead through Mon night. This will keep POPs
low...but also allow temps to increase for Mon. Highs will warm from
the mid 70s to mid 80s this Sun afternoon...to the upper 70s to
around 90 for Mon afternoon. Dewpts may remain in the upper 50s to
mid 60s into Mon...but as the upper ridge slides east by Tue...SRLY
flow will increase at low levels in response to the increasing SW
flow aloft. This increased SRLY flow will allow for increasing low
level moisture...along with further warming temps for Tue afternoon.
Dewpts may approach 70 for some areas on Tue afternoon...with heat
index values peaking in the 90s for many areas.

By Tue night into Wed...a weak upper shortwave will lift NE over
NWRN sections of AR...with a cold front approaching from the NW.
This will bring increasing chances for convection Tue evening into
Wed morning for NWRN sections. This SFC cold front looks to stall
over NWRN sections...or somewhere in the vicinity of this general
area by midday Wed with the flow aloft nearly parallel. Some weak
upper waves look to pass over this SFC front...keeping chances for
convection forecast off and on through early Fri.

Flow aloft will transition back to a somewhat zonal to weak NWRLY
direction by late in the forecast Fri into the upcoming weekend. The
SFC frontal boundary will still be draped across some portion of the
region...with some continued chances for SHRA/TSRA forecast into the
weekend.

As mentioned in previous days...uncertainty on where this SFC
boundary will be each day will keep some question on where the axis
of heaviest rainfall will end up. Some guidance is pushing the SFC
front further SE into AR...while others keep it further north and or
NW into late week. Rainfall amounts across the region could range
from 2 to over 6 inches for some areas...with latest indications the
higher amounts over WRN AR and points further west. Lesser amounts
on the order of 1 to 3 inches are forecast further south and east
through late week. Any adjustment in the SFC boundary can cause the
heavy rain axis to shift east or west. Future Flood Watch headlines
may be needed as this time gets closer...and better confidence
exists on where the heaviest rainfall may occur.

There will also be some potential for a few strong/SVR TSRA mid to
late week. Pinpointing details of timing and potential for any
organized SVR Wx are a bit difficult at this time. This will depend
on daily positions of the SFC front and ripples in the upper flow
that could enhance lift and instability. This will become more clear
in the coming days as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the 18Z TAFS...

Apart from some scattered rain showers and maybe an isolated
thunderstorm VFR conditions are expected through the valid
forecast period. There may be a few hours of MVFR fog around dawn
on Monday, but any fog that develops is expected to dissipate
quickly.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         62  89  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       62  84  66  84 /   0   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    63  89  68  89 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  65  88  69  89 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     65  89  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      62  88  68  88 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  62  85  67  86 /   0   0   0  20
Newport AR        66  87  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     64  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   64  89  68  89 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         64  87  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      66  87  69  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66