041 FXUS64 KLZK 191149 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 649 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 -Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through Thursday evening. -Hot temperatures and humid air will lead to increasing heat indices and heat danger this weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across portions of Nrn AR this Thursday morning. This activity is anticipated to drop Swrd through the morning hours. By midday, convection should move into Srn AR ahead of a weak frontal boundary. While organized severe weather is not expected, a few storms could produce damaging winds and or large hail. Due to rain and clouds in the forecast today, high temperatures are only expected to range from upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values between 90 and 100 degrees. Afterwards, the upper level trough responsible for recent rainfall will move E with an upper ridge building into the Srn Rockies. Flow between features will briefly become NWrly Thursday evening and Thursday night. Heading into Friday, including the weekend, the ridge will shift Ewrd becoming centered over top the region. On Monday the upper ridge will slide Ewrd over the TN/OH Valleys with SW flow bringing low end PoPs to the region around the periphery of high pressure through Tuesday. Convection is expected to be limited to the afternoon hours mainly driven by diurnal heating. Thereafter, the upper ridge will retrograde back into the region reducing afternoon rain chances. The main story during the period will be an increase in heat and humidity which could result in heat related illnesses. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be well into the 90s with the highest readings over the weekend. Overnight lows are not expected to provide much relief with readings only falling into the lower to upper 70s. When combining hot temperatures with oppressive dew points, heat index values are expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees on Friday. Heat index values should creep upwards over the weekend into early next week with apparent T`s between 105 to 110 degrees. Given these conditions, heat headlines will likely be needed over the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 VFR conds are expected to prevail through much of the TAF period. Scattered SHRA/TSRA have pushed into Cntrl AR as of 12z with Nrn sites anticipated to remain dry. This activity will work Swrd through the day, impacting Srn terminals through the afternoon and evening hours. Where TSRA occur, MVFR VIS`bys are possible. Winds will be W/SW at around 10 kts on Thurs. Precip should diminish across the state from NW to SE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 71 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 91 73 94 74 / 40 10 20 0 Harrison AR 87 67 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 91 73 94 75 / 30 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 91 73 94 76 / 30 0 10 0 Monticello AR 91 74 94 76 / 50 10 20 0 Mount Ida AR 91 73 94 74 / 20 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 88 67 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 91 72 93 76 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 91 74 95 76 / 50 0 10 0 Russellville AR 92 72 94 75 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 91 71 94 74 / 10 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 90 74 93 77 / 40 10 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...70