375
FXUS64 KMEG 021958
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
258 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

- Dry conditions are expected to continue through at least the
  first half of Wednesday. High temperatures will climb into the
  upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

- An unsettled weather pattern will return by Thursday through the
  weekend, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
  Heavy rain is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

A ridge currently centered just west of the Mississippi River
along with a surface high centered over the Ohio Valley will keep
us dry, but warm tonight through at least midday Wednesday.
Current temperatures are in the middle 80s across much of the
Midsouth and are expected be even warmer tomorrow. Highs this
afternoon should be in the middle to upper 80s. Much of the region
will approach the 90 degree mark tomorrow afternoon. The ridge
will shift over the Appalachians tomorrow and the surface high
will shift off the southeast coast. Meanwhile a broad trough and
associated cold front will shift out of the central and southern
plains. The pressure gradient will tighten across the middle and
lower Mississippi River valley tomorrow resulting in south winds
in the 10-15 mph range with gusts near 20 mph. The cold front
should stall somewhere over western Missouri into western Arkansas
Wednesday afternoon in response to weak ridging over the Plains
downstream of a deepening trough over the Desert Southwest. Ahead
of the front, dew points will surge into the upper 60s to low 70s
while afternoon highs climb into the upper 80s. Diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms look likely.

Thursday through the weekend appear to be much wetter with
slightly cooler temperatures as we shift into a much more
progressive pattern. Southwest flow Thursday will transition to
zonal flow Friday, to northwest flow over the weekend. Numerous
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected, reaching a
crescendo Sunday. It is a bit early to have much confidence in the
threat of severe thunderstorms, but at this time conditions do
not look very favorable. However, as the weekend evolves, the
multiple rounds of storms could result in a flooding threat.
Currently 1-3 inches of rain is expected, most falling late
Saturday into Sunday.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

VFR forecast with no impacts to aviation expected. Fair weather
cumulus and light southerly winds will prevail this afternoon and
evening. Some backing of winds to a more southerly component will
occur tonight, lasting through the end of the period. Gusts could
get up to 15-20 knots by 18z tomorrow that will last through the
afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JAB