112 FXUS64 KLZK 021618 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1118 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 + Increasing temperatures and humidity levels are expected this week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations. + From mid week on, temperatures will remain warm and humid, but cloud cover will be on the increase as a front stalls out near the northwestern part of the state. + Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of and along this front from mid-week into next weekend. Given multiple rounds of possible heavy rainfall, a more widespread flooding threat may arise by late this week and into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Latest nighttime sat imgry depicted clear skies acrs the FA w/ objective sfc analysis indicative of sfc high pressure extending over much of the Upper Midwest. Clear skies and local subsidence may promote some patchy fog over portions of the FA thru Mon mrng. Thru the short term, dry and warming condns are expected alongside incrsg humidity levels, w/ rain chances returning to the FA by Tues night. Upper level flow looks to stay somewhat weak and unorganized acrs the Srn Cntrl US initially on Mon, w/ the stronger polar jet receding Nwrd towards the US/Canada border. To the south of the polar jet axis, shortwave ridging wl be amplifying over the Srn Cntrl US. Upstream of this ridging, a cutoff Pacific upper low is progged to maneuver Ewrd fm the S/Wrn US towards the Srn Plains by Mon night. This feature wl allow for an extension of the basal region of longwave troughing over the Wrn US, amplifying the upper flow pattern. At the sfc, elongated low pressure wl extend SW to NE fm the OK/TX panhandle into the Great Lakes. Mon night and into Tues, an asctd trailing cdfrnt is expected to move Swrd thru the Plains ahead of broader sfc high pressure. PoPs, including some thunderstorms should incrs in covg and magnitude along this frnt as it moves into the Ozark Plateau, NErn OK, and NW AR Tues night, w/ the frnt stalling acrs the FA near mid-week. For now, severe weather chances look to stay largely out of the Natural State on Tues w/ this aprchg system, but some stronger storms could still be seen acrs far NWrn AR late Tues night, w/ hail and gusty winds the main hazards. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 To begin the period, a cold front is expected to move into the state Wednesday morning bringing with it the chance for unsettled weather through much of the long-term period. As the frontal system moves across the state, it is expected to stall late Wednesday into Thursday morning with NW flow aloft setting up over the state. This pattern most always brings unsettled weather to the state as multiple disturbances ride along the frontal boundary. Given the latest model data, it appears this is what is likely for this upcoming week. As mentioned above, on and off showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning Wednesday and lasting through the weekend. While storms will pose a heavy rain risk that could lead to some isolated flash flooding...rainfall amounts will be spread over a multi-day period keeping the threat for flash flood somewhat lower. Additionally, severe weather chances are low at this time but could increase as we go through this week. Rainfall amounts Wednesday through Sunday are expected to be highest across northern locations where two to four inches of rain will be possible. Lesser amounts are expected across central and southern locations with one to two inches possible across central Arkansas and up to an inch possible across the south. Temperatures are expected to be average to above average through much of the period with high temperatures in the upper 70s (mainly northern locations) to lower 90s and overnight low temperatures dropping into the mid 60s to mid 70s across the state. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Expect VFR flight category across all sites through the duration of the forecast period from early Monday afternoon through early Tuesday afternoon. Surface winds will be predominately southerly to southeasterly over the forecast period across all terminals. The sites of KHRO and KBPK will experience low level wind shear later Monday evening which will persist into midday on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 67 89 71 86 / 0 0 20 50 Camden AR 66 90 70 89 / 0 0 10 30 Harrison AR 67 85 68 80 / 10 10 50 70 Hot Springs AR 68 89 71 86 / 0 0 20 50 Little Rock AR 67 89 71 88 / 0 0 10 40 Monticello AR 68 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 20 Mount Ida AR 68 89 70 85 / 0 0 30 60 Mountain Home AR 67 86 68 81 / 0 10 40 80 Newport AR 67 89 71 88 / 0 0 10 40 Pine Bluff AR 67 90 71 90 / 0 0 10 30 Russellville AR 68 89 71 85 / 0 0 30 60 Searcy AR 65 89 69 88 / 0 0 10 40 Stuttgart AR 68 89 72 88 / 0 0 10 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...74