166 FXUS65 KFGZ 162151 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 251 PM MST Wed Apr 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A weather system will bring dramatic changes to the weather across northern Arizona starting Thursday with increasing southwest winds and much cooler temperatures. Chances of rain showers and snow showers increase Thursday night in the northwest and will spread across northern Arizona on Friday. Showers will linger in Apache County into Saturday night. Warmer and drier weather will make a quick comeback next week. && .DISCUSSION...An area of low pressure moving south out of Canada into the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest this afternoon will dive south and merge/phase with a large area of off the coast of California. This will move across Arizona Thursday through Saturday morning. Ridging/zonal flow will then move over the State from Sunday will into next week. Impacts: Increasing winds is expected on Thursday with dry conditions. This has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for areas of northern Arizona for areas north of the Mogollon Rim to the Four Corners Area on Thursday. A wind advisory advisory has also been issued for areas along the Mogollon Rim to the Kaibab Plateau northeastward for Thursday into Thursday evening. Chances for precipitation will start over the Kaibab Plateau Thursday afternoon and will then spread southeast and east across northern Arizona into Saturday morning. Snow levels will start around 8000 feet and then lower to around 5000 feet by Saturday morning. The higher elevations of the Kaibab Plateau and San Fransisco Peaks could see 5-10" of new snowfall, The White Mountains could see 2-5" over the higher terrain. These totals are for Thursday night through Saturday evening. Keep in mind that these snow amounts may not last through the whole period as melting could occur between the heavier snowfalls. Heavier bands of snow could allow for quick accumulation. For the lower elevations, snow may melt almost as quickly as it falls. Lower elevation areas look to receive rainfall ranging from 0.20-0.40". Daytime highs are forecast to rebound back up to the 60s for higher elevation locations and 70s and 80s for lower elevation locations by Sunday afternoon. Near average temperatures and dry conditions are expected into next week with daily afternoon breezes. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 16/18Z through Thursday 17/18Z...VFR conditions are expected under FEW-SCT middle and upper-level clouds. Winds are S-SW 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts, becoming S 5-15 kts after 03Z Thursday. OUTLOOK...Thursday 17/18Z through Saturday 19/18Z... VFR conditions through 06Z Friday, then periods of MVFR-IFR in widespread SHRA/SHSN thereafter. Winds are SW 20-30 kts gusting to 35-45 kts on Thursday, then SW-W 15-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts on Friday. SW winds remain elevated at 10-15 kts overnight Thursday into Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday...A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Thursday across most of Eastern Arizona, with Near- Critical fire weather conditions expected elsewhere today and Thursday. Fire weather concerns end on Friday as widespread rain and high elevation snow showers enter the region. Widespread minimum RH is at or below 15% today, then below 15% east of the Mogollon Rim and in the White Mountains on Thursday. Winds are southwest 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph today, then southwest through west 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35-45 mph on Thursday and Friday. Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers will linger through midday Saturday, then a warming and drying trend thereafter. Winds are W-NW 15 mph or less on Saturday turning SW-W on Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 5 PM MST /6 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ004-010>014-040. Wind Advisory from 9 AM MST /10 AM MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ006-015>017-039. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ110>114-117-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...MAS/Konieczny AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff