995
FXUS65 KFGZ 180937
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
237 AM MST Thu Dec 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will be
the main story for the next several days. We could see
precipitation around the Christmas Holiday, but rain looks to be
the primary precipitation type.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure across the eastern Pacific continues
to keep the desert Southwest in a warm/dry pattern. Expect daytime
highs to land 15-25 degrees above normal through at least the
middle of next week, before temperatures drop a smidge towards the
end of next week. Even so, unseasonably warm conditions will stick
around for the foreseeable future.

Winds will be light and variable today, but as the area of high
pressure suppresses and slides to our south, we`ll begin to see
southwest winds pick up across the High Country. Strongest winds
will be across the higher terrain where sustained speeds look to
range from 15-25 mph and gusts could reach up to 35 mph. These
more elevated winds should stick around through the weekend, but
overall we look to stay in a breezier pattern through much of the
forecast period.

We`ve been hinting at the potential for moisture to return around
Christmas Eve/Christmas Day, and this still looks to be the case.
Model guidance suggests a low pressure system slide down the
Pacific Coast and ushering in additional moisture to AZ. Timing
and exact trajectory are still wavering some between models, but
there is at least a continuous trend of having showers around the
Christmas Holiday. Unfortunately, if you were hoping for a White
Christmas, you`ll have to look elsewhere. Snow levels are forecast
to be well above 7000` with this incoming system. There is still
time for the tune to change, but I wouldn`t get your hopes up!

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 18/06Z through Friday 19/06Z...VFR
conditions will continue. Daytime winds on Thursday will be west
to northwest at 5-15 kts, overnight winds light and variable at
less than 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 19/06Z through Sunday 21/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Daytime winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts with
gusts to 25 kts. Overnight winds generally light and variable
Thursday night but locally gusty to 25 kts downwind of terrain
features Friday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Expect daytime highs to remain
well above normal each day, along with very dry conditions. Daytime
winds west through northwest 5 to 15 mph Thursday and southwest 15
to 25 mph Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Expect daytime highs to remain well above
normal each day, along with continued dry conditions. South through
southwest winds 5 to 15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph along and north of
the Mogollon Rim Saturday. Then, south through southwest winds 10
to 15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph, for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff