465
FXUS65 KFGZ 180440
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
940 PM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures are
expected through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The strong ridge across the eastern Pacific will
remain in control of our weather through the better part of the next
week. Expect continued dry conditions and well above normal
temperatures. A few shortwaves will find their way through the
region but with a lack of deep moisture it will only bring us an
increase in mid/high clouds.

Overall, daytime highs will remain around 15-25 degrees above normal
before cooling ever so slightly towards the middle of next week.
Nighttime lows will remain cool to cold as very dry air, light
winds, and mostly clear skies, will continue to lead to decent
radiational cooling. Lows will still be above the more typical lows
we see by mid/late December.

Daytime winds will generally be light with variable directions
around 5-15 mph through Thursday. Winds will increase for Friday
through Sunday, becoming southwest to west around 10-20 mph. Gusty
overnight winds will continue in areas along and downwind of terrain
features.

The ridge still looks like it will flatten out and push to the east
over the weekend and into early next week. As the high settles over
Mexico and the Gulf, the flow will shift and will allow for
troughing to develop and deepen along the Pacific coast. Models
continue to place the trough/low in different places and the timing
varies, which all play a part in what weather it will bring to our
area. Moisture remains limited and confidence remains low that we
will see much precipitation as the trough digs down and approaches
the region around the mid-week period. Additionally, warm air will
still be in place, resulting in more rain than snow with any snow
likely to be confined to areas above 8000 feet. Details should
become clearer for this potential system late weekend/early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 18/06Z through Friday 19/06Z...VFR
conditions will continue. Daytime winds on Thursday will be west
to northwest at 5-15 kts, overnight winds light and variable at
less than 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 19/06Z through Sunday 21/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Daytime winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts with
gusts to 25 kts. Overnight winds generally light and variable
Thursday night but locally gusty to 25 kts downwind of terrain
features Friday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Expect daytime highs 15-25
degrees above normal each day along with dry conditions. Winds W-NW
5-10 mph Thursday, SW 10-20 mph Friday. Minimum RH values 15-25%
each afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...Look for temperatures 10-20 degrees above
normal each day with dry conditions persisting. Winds SW 10-20 mph
Saturday, SW 5-15 mph Sunday, S-SW 5-10 mph Monday. Minimum RH
values 20-35% Saturday and Sunday, 15-25% Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff