551
FXUS65 KFGZ 090344
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
844 PM MST Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather disturbance will bring clouds through
Wednesday with a slight chance for light showers or sprinkles
over the mountains each afternoon. Otherwise, warm conditions
will continue through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Showers have dissipated with the loss of daytime heating
and just some clouds are expected to hang around through the rest
of hte night. Mid level moisture continues to remain high across
the region. A similar day is expected for Wednesday with isolated
showers and virga mainly across the higher terrain. We did see
some gusty winds with these showers (around 25-35 mph) and this
will be the case with any showers that develop on Wednesday. A
slight cooling trend will also continue though temperatures remain
rather warm for early October and some record temperatures cannot
be fully ruled out. Made some updates to the PoPs for Wednesday
but otherwise only minor edits were needed with the update this
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /420 PM MST/...Increasing mid-level moisture lead to the
development of scattered virga showers (precipitation not reaching
the ground) and light showers across northern Arizona today. Winds
have generally been light out of the southwest today with some
gusts around 20 MPH closer to any showers. This moisture will
remain over northern Arizona through Wednesday with slight chances
for light showers or sprinkles again. Daytime temperatures will
drop a couple degrees Wednesday.

Thursday into early next week...Partly to mostly cloudy each
afternoon with a gradual cooling trend as an additional low
pressure system approaches the West Coast. This low will also bring
increasing southwest winds each afternoon through the weekend.
There will be periods of mid- to high-level cloudiness as well.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 09/00Z through Thursday 10/00Z...VFR conditions
expected throughout the TAF period. Periods of -SHRA/virga will
be likely through 03Z and returning again after 18Z Wednesday,
primarily along a KFLG-KSOW line. Localized areas of HZ/FU also
possible throughout the period from prescribed burns. Winds will
generally be SW around 10 kts or less, but showers and terrain can
easily influence speed/direction.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 10/00Z through Saturday 12/00Z...VFR conditions
expected throughout the period. Minimal -SHRA/virga expected, but
periods of HZ/FU in localized areas still likely from prescribed
burns. Expect winds to be 10 kts or less and varying in direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Very warm temperatures and
mainly dry conditions. A few isolated high-based showers or
sprinkles will be possible both afternoons, mainly over the high
terrain. Brief gusty outflow winds from 20-30 mph will be possible
around any showers, especially Wednesday. Otherwise, winds
south/southwest 10 to 15 mph each afternoon, but will be heavily
influenced by terrain.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling
temperatures. Winds south/southwest 5 to 15 mph Friday, increasing
to 10 to 20 mph on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/MAS
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff