332
FXUS65 KFGZ 201713
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1013 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mild, dry, and breezy conditions are on tap through
Tuesday across Arizona. The pattern looks to become active from
Wednesday through the Christmas holiday weekend with cooler
temperatures, stronger winds, and chances for widespread
precipitation. Most of the precipitation is forecast to be in the
form of rain, with some high elevation snow possible toward next
Friday or Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Not much change in the current weather pattern
through Tuesday as a mild and dry west to southwest flow aloft is
expected to remain over Arizona. As a result, we`re looking at
little change in high and low temperatures with a few record high
temperatures possible. Winds will remain locally gusty from the
southwest to west at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph today and
Sunday becoming more southerly on Monday and Tuesday as troughing
over the Pacific combines with ridging over Texas. Otherwise,
there will be periods of high clouds, likely thickest on Tuesday
as the Pacific trough draws closer to Arizona.

From Wednesday onward...The Pacific trough will push south and
east toward Arizona with a series of embedded disturbances
delivering widespread showers. The origins of the coming air mass
will be subtropical and mild for a storm in the winter. As a
result, snow levels on Wednesday will start out around 10,000 feet
gradually lowering to around 9,000 feet on Christmas Day as the
trough slowly approaches Arizona. This will leave much of northern
Arizona in the rain zone with only the highest mountains peaks
seeing any snow. The snow level could fall to 7,000 feet by next
Saturday but there is enough uncertainty in model solutions to
have minimal confidence in that. With moisture, clouds and
precipitation moving in, look for cooler daytime temperatures
more usual for this time of year. Winds will continue gusty and
likely a bit stronger, especially with any passing disturbances.
The timing of the first disturbance for Wednesday into Christmas
day appears set with widespread rain (high snow level) and gusty
winds. Beyond Thursday, the timing of additional disturbances is
a little more uncertain but at the very least periods of showers
will continue.

The main message, be prepared for wet weather if you plan to
travel in northern Arizona over the Christmas holiday weekend.
Snow will even be possible over portions of major travel routes
such as I-40 and I-17 by next Saturday or Sunday. Check back for
updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 20/18Z through Sunday 21/18Z...VFR
conditions with variable high clouds. Winds SW 5-15kts, gusts
20-25kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 21/18Z through Tuesday 23/18Z...VFR conditions
with increasing high clouds. Winds SW 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts
daytime Sunday, SW 5-10kts, gusts 15-20kts daytime Monday. Light
and variable or terrain driven during overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...Dry and warm conditions
continue with daytime temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.
Winds SW 10-20 mph, gusts 20-25 mph each day, with winds remaining
SW 10 mph tonight along and just north of higher terrain.  Minimum
RH values drop to 20-35% each afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry with temperatures remaining 15-25
degrees above average Monday and 10-20 degrees Tuesday. By Tuesday
evening a pattern change arrives with some shower chances moving in
and increasing Wednesday through the end of the week. Temperatures
Wednesday remain 15-20 degrees above average in the eastern half of
the area, while the western half of the area cools to 5-10 degrees
above average under increased cloud cover and precipitation chances.
Winds SW 10-15 mph Monday, 10-20 mph Tuesday, and 15-25 mph
Wednesday. Minimum RH 15-25% Monday and Tuesday, 30-50% Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff