538
FXUS65 KTWC 102022
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
122 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and hot conditions across southeast Arizona through the
coming week as high temperatures remain several degrees above
normal. Extreme heat will be possible Saturday through Monday
across southeast Arizona.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
*Temperatures will increase throughout the week and into the
 weekend, creating widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk by
 Saturday. Highest temperatures Sunday creating creating
 widespread Major HeatRisk, with high temperatures 8 to 13 degrees
 above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The overall pattern continues to be dominated by an upper ridge
over the eastern Pacific. A weak disturbance is slowly moving
eastward across New Mexico, and a few showers and potential
thunderstorms will be possible over Greenlee County in the
cyclonic flow around the disturbance. These ~20 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms will persist over the White Mountains
into Wednesday.

As the upper disturbance exits the region, the weather story
becomes heat as the aforementioned eastern Pacific ridge expands
and builds eastward. Temperatures will be in the same general
ballpark today through Friday, generally highs in the mid 90s up
to around 105 across the valleys. The warmup begins in earnest on
Saturday, with temperatures likely peaking on Sunday. In fact,
there is a roughly 70% chance of temperatures reaching or
exceeding 110 degrees in Tucson on Sunday, and close to 50% on
Monday. A bit of cooling is forecast for next Tuesday as an upper
trough moves across the West.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z.

Clear skies/SKC conditions across much of southeast Arizona thru
the forecast period. The exception will be in the White Mountains
NE of KSAD, with FEW-SCT clouds at around 12k ft AGL through 11/03Z,
along with a slight chance of -TSRA. SFC wind generally W/NW 8-13
kts through 11/03z, then becoming variable less than 10 kts
afterward. Winds become W/NW 8-13 kts again after 11/18Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions are expected across most of southeast Arizona
through this coming weekend. There will be a slight chance (10-20
percent) of afternoon/early evening mainly dry thunderstorms in
the White Mountains through Wednesday. Generally single digit min
RH values in the valleys all this week, with mountain locations in
the 10-20 percent range. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less
from Tucson westward all week, with occasional afternoon/early
evening gusts to around 25 mph due to the strong surface heating.
East of Tucson, breezy afternoon/early evening 20-foot winds are
expected across portions of Cochise and Graham counties through
Wednesday, with peak wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around
30 mph. The strongest winds will be in the upper Gila River valley
near Safford, with the possibility of a few hours of near
critical to critical conditions Wednesday afternoon/early evening.
No Fire Weather headlines due to the small geographical area and
limited time frame.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

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