972
FXUS65 KTWC 292010
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
110 PM MST Fri May 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures today and Saturday will be 6 to 10 degrees
below normal across Southeast Arizona. Winds will also be breezy
today leading to elevated fire weather conditions. Temperatures
heat back up to normal to just above normal Sunday into next
week. Moisture also makes its way into the region next week
leading to thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday east of
Tucson.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The low pressure system that is keeping Southeast Arizona in
the 80s is currently to the north of the area in the Great
basin. Outside of temperatures, the main impact with this system
is the breezy winds. As of 1 pm, the highest wind gusts have
been mostly 25-35 mph in the eastern valleys, with a recorded
gust of 44 mph in Willcox. These winds will begin to decrease
and taper off at or around sunset. As this system begins to exit
the region to the northeast of the area tomorrow, the area will
remain breezy, however will be less than today. This system
will keep high temperatures `cooler` tomorrow and below normal
in the mid 80s to low 90s.

Once this system passes, a ridge begins to build over Texas,
introducing southwest to southerly flow, allowing for
temperatures begin to increase Sunday into next week. This
increase brings back the chances for temperatures in the 100s
early to mid next week, with current NBM probabilities of Tucson
reaching 100 degrees at 25% Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Depending on how the high pressure sets up, determining the
overall upper level flow, some moisture may be advected and
moved into the region mid next week. As of now, much of this
moisture is in the eastern valleys, introducing afternoon and
evening shower and thunderstorm chances (15-50%), with the
highest chances in the White Mountains and Sky Islands.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 31/00Z.
SKC. SFC winds SLY/SWLY 12-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts until
30/03z then decrease to less than 10 kts overnight. SFC winds
become WLY/NWLY at 8 to 12 kts with occasional gusts up to 20
kts aft 30/20Z thru the end of the period. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm with dry conditions across Southeast Arizona into early
next week. An abnormally cool upper-low residing across central
California will result in below normal temperatures across
Southeast Arizona today and Saturday. This system will also
bring breezy to locally windy 20-foot winds from the southwest
12 to 20 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph. This will result in
elevated/near-critical fire weather conditions today east of
Tucson. Min RH values will be in the 7-18 percent range in the
valleys and in the 14-20 percent range in the mountains through
next week. By the middle of next week, there is some potential
for showers and thunderstorms east of Tucson.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

JT

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