538 FXUS65 KTWC 102022 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 122 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and hot conditions across southeast Arizona through the coming week as high temperatures remain several degrees above normal. Extreme heat will be possible Saturday through Monday across southeast Arizona. && .KEY MESSAGES... *Temperatures will increase throughout the week and into the weekend, creating widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk by Saturday. Highest temperatures Sunday creating creating widespread Major HeatRisk, with high temperatures 8 to 13 degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... The overall pattern continues to be dominated by an upper ridge over the eastern Pacific. A weak disturbance is slowly moving eastward across New Mexico, and a few showers and potential thunderstorms will be possible over Greenlee County in the cyclonic flow around the disturbance. These ~20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist over the White Mountains into Wednesday. As the upper disturbance exits the region, the weather story becomes heat as the aforementioned eastern Pacific ridge expands and builds eastward. Temperatures will be in the same general ballpark today through Friday, generally highs in the mid 90s up to around 105 across the valleys. The warmup begins in earnest on Saturday, with temperatures likely peaking on Sunday. In fact, there is a roughly 70% chance of temperatures reaching or exceeding 110 degrees in Tucson on Sunday, and close to 50% on Monday. A bit of cooling is forecast for next Tuesday as an upper trough moves across the West. && .AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z. Clear skies/SKC conditions across much of southeast Arizona thru the forecast period. The exception will be in the White Mountains NE of KSAD, with FEW-SCT clouds at around 12k ft AGL through 11/03Z, along with a slight chance of -TSRA. SFC wind generally W/NW 8-13 kts through 11/03z, then becoming variable less than 10 kts afterward. Winds become W/NW 8-13 kts again after 11/18Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are expected across most of southeast Arizona through this coming weekend. There will be a slight chance (10-20 percent) of afternoon/early evening mainly dry thunderstorms in the White Mountains through Wednesday. Generally single digit min RH values in the valleys all this week, with mountain locations in the 10-20 percent range. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less from Tucson westward all week, with occasional afternoon/early evening gusts to around 25 mph due to the strong surface heating. East of Tucson, breezy afternoon/early evening 20-foot winds are expected across portions of Cochise and Graham counties through Wednesday, with peak wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. The strongest winds will be in the upper Gila River valley near Safford, with the possibility of a few hours of near critical to critical conditions Wednesday afternoon/early evening. No Fire Weather headlines due to the small geographical area and limited time frame. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday evening for AZZ501>509. && $$ Public...Dang Aviation...Dang Fire Weather....Dang Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson