625
FXUS65 KTWC 290946
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
246 AM MST Fri May 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures today through Saturday will be 6
and 10 degrees below normal across Southeast Arizona. Winds will
also be breezy today leading to elevated fire weather conditions.
Temperatures heat back up to normal to just above normal Sunday
into next week. Moisture also makes its way into the region
next week leading to thunderstorm chances Tuesday through
Thursday east of Tucson.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The sky was clear this morning as the thick cloud
cover that was over the area yesterday has moved on east. Water
vapor imagery showed an upper low NW of Vegas. This upper low
will continue to bring below normal high temperatures today and
tomorrow while also bringing gusty SW winds and elevated fire
weather conditions today. Near normal high temperatures to close
out May on Sunday then June starts with slightly above normal
highs and triple-digit highs for lower deserts. Moisture seep
into the eastern areas next week will bring a chance of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly east of
Tucson Wed and Thu.

8-14 day outlooks (June 5-11)
Temperature: Leaning above normal
Precipitation: Leaning above normal most of area

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 30/12Z.
SKC. SFC winds terrain driven and less than 10 kts thru 29/18z
then SLY/SWLY 12-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts until 30/03z then
bcmg light thru end of valid pd. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm with dry conditions across Southeast
Arizona into early next week. An abnormally cool upper-low
residing across central California will result in below normal
temperatures across Southeast Arizona today and Saturday. This
system will also bring breezy to locally windy 20-foot winds
from the southwest 12 to 20 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph. This
will result in elevated/near-critical fire weather conditions
today east of Tucson. Min RH values will be in the 7-18 percent
range in the valleys and in the 14-20 percent range in the
mountains through next week. By the middle of next week, there
is some potential for showers and thunderstorms east of Tucson.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson