814
FXUS65 KFGZ 022110
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 PM MST Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...The unusually active pattern for early June will
continue through at least Wednesday of this week. Expect a chance
of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures will be
cooler than normal through Thursday, with warmer and drier
weather returning Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...First upper level Low is now in northeastern
Arizona and poised to exit the area over the next couple hours.
Still plenty of moisture and dynamics in the wrap around zone of
this Low to keep the numerous showers and thunderstorms over the
northern half of the state as well as the eastern mountains
through the early nighttime hours, after which the dynamics from
this Low and the loss of daytime heating should bring the showers
to an end.

For Tuesday, another cutoff Low approaches from the California
coast. This sets up a different scenario from today as leftover
moisture will combine with daytime heating and just enough lift
from the approaching Low to set off some convective afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms over the northern half of the
state. These will be more scattered in nature but locations under
one of these storms could see locally heavy amounts of rain. By
Tuesday night these storms will dissipate as we lose the daytime
heating.

A similar scenario for Wednesday as the Low advances and weakens
as it does so when it moves across the state. More daytime
convection will be expected when this happens again mainly in the
northern half of the state, with localized heavy rain possible.

What`s left of that second Low departs on Thursday followed by a
shortwave trough moving in from the north. However dynamics will
be further to the north so other than a few isolated storms
possible over the Utah/Arizona border, the rest of the state will
be drying out.

Friday onward high pressure will be building in from the south and
this will dry things out and allow our temperatures which have
been sitting below normal for the last few days to warm up to
early June averages.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 02/18Z through Tuesday 03/18Z...Look for
a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions through the TAF period due to
SHRA/TSRA. Heavier precipitation could also lead to brief localized
IFR/LIFR conditions. More widespread activity is forecast through
02Z, with declining chances for showers/thunderstorms afterwards.
Outside of gusty and erratic winds from TS/SHRA, look for
westerly winds 10-20 kts, gusting near 25 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 03/18Z through Thursday 05/18Z...A mixture of VFR
and MVFR conditions expected through the period. Look for chances
for SHRA/TSRA between 18Z Tuesday - 06Z Thursday. Outside of gusty
and erratic winds from TS/SHRA, expect SW-W winds 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Things take on a more
convective nature Tuesday and Wednesday with the northern half of
the state will see daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, with clearing skies at night. Locally heavy
downpours and erratic gusty winds are possible near the storms,
otherwise look for westerly winds 10-20 mph.


Thursday through Saturday...A few isolated thunderstorms across
far northern Arizona are possible on Thursday. Dry and seasonally
warm conditions return for Friday and Saturday. Winds will
generally be westerly around 10-20 mph, outside of any
gusty/erratic winds near showers/storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff