753
FXUS65 KFGZ 062036
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
136 PM MST Mon Jan 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will bring colder air and chances for
rain and snow showers for Tuesday through Wednesday. Dry and cold
weather continues through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The strengthening ridge across the Pacific will be in
control of the weather pattern over the coming week. Main features
will be shortwaves ridging along the eastern side of the ridge,
bringing colder temperatures and a chance for some rain and snow
showers.

A shortwave will travel down the east side of the ridge with some of
the leading energy moving through northern Arizona, closer to the
Utah border, this evening into tonight. With limited moisture
around, expect mostly an increase in cloud cover. A few very light
rain or snow showers may fall as the energy moves through. Very
light amounts, most likely no more than a trace, can be expected
through tonight.

The wave digs deeply to the south, with the center moving over Yuma
as it starts to close off. The cut-off low will then traverse the
southern Arizona border and gradually push off to the east through
mid-week. The position of the low will keep us in a more north to
northeast flow, which tends to keep us drier and is not as favorable
for big snows around here. The models have struggled with just how
much moisture will be brought up to the area and a lot of it is
dependent on where the low cuts off. With less confidence in there
being all that moisture to tap into, remained conservative on QPF.
What we do have confidence in is that there will be plenty of co air
available and that will aid in dropping snow levels down to 3500 to
4000 feet by Wednesday.

The strong northeast flow should also help in the development of
showers across the area. Some precip will start as early as late
Tuesday morning/early Tuesday afternoon and then continue through
Tuesday night before ending on Wednesday. In general amounts still
remain on the light side, but areas along the Mogollon Rim through
the White Mountains might be able to eke out 1-3" of snow before all
is said and done. The areas likely to see 3-6" of snow are just to
the east of the higher terrain. Tried to capture this as best as we
could in the QPF/snow grids so higher amounts are reflected along
the US89 corridor, including Doney Park and east towards Winona.

Something to keep in mind will be the impacts to the Wednesday
morning commute, as the bulk of the precipitation is expected to
fall Tuesday night in Wednesday. Plan for extra time and make sure
to have a winter kit ready to go in your car, just in case.

With the wave moved off to our south, another shortwave may move in
from the north. The low to the south may provide enough south-
southeast flow to bring a little bit of extra moisture into eastern
Arizona. This second wave is considerably weaker than the previous
one and while we may see some light rain or snow showers, they look
to be mainly confined to the White Mountains on Thursday with a few
flurries elsewhere.

Another feature of these waves is the tightening pressure gradient,
resulting in very strong northeast winds, especially along and
downwind of the higher terrain. Strongest winds look to be from late
Tuesday night through Wednesday with gusts around 30-40 mph. An
uptick in winds may continue through Thursday as the second, weaker
wave move through the area. With cold air in place and the strong
northeast winds, it will certainly much colder than it is and wind
chills will be a concern.

The end of the week and into the first half of the weekend brings
increasing heights, which should allow for some slight warming to
take place, though temperatures will remain cold. The pacific high
moves little through this time and the longer range models show that
several more shortwaves will ridge along the eastern side of the
ridge. Basically, a cold and windy pattern continues with mostly
dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 06/18Z through Tuesday 07/18Z...VFR conditions
expected the next 24 hours, winds light and variable this
afternoon and overnight, except for overnight drainage winds at
KPRC and KSEZ. NE 10-15kt winds begin to develop around 15Z
Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...Scattered rain
and snow showers move in from the north around 12-18Z Tuesday.
MVFR/IFR conditions possible near the heaviest snow showers.
Heaviest amounts of precipitation mainly north and east of a
KCMR-KSOW line. Snow showers linger on Wednesday before moving out
Wednesday night, brief MVFR possible in these snow showers. Winds
NE 10-20kts, gusts 30-35kts 18Z Tues to 03Z Thurs. Light winds
overnight Wed into Thursday AM, but N-NE 10-20kt winds, gusts
25-30kts resume 18Z Thurs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Light winds overnight,
becoming N-NE 10-20 mph by mid Tuesday morning and increasing by
afternoon to 15-25 mph and remaining so through Wednesday. Wind
gusts of 30-40 mph possible along and downwind of the high terrain.
Rain and snow showers move into the area Tuesday morning and will
last through early Wednesday morning across most of the area.  By
Wednesday afternoon only the Rim and White Mountains will see a few
lingering snow showers with the rest of the precipitation moving out
of the White Mountains by early Thursday morning.  Temperatures will
be much colder with most of the region seeing highs 20 degrees
cooler than Monday`s readings and about 10 degrees below seasonal
averages.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry weather returns from Thursday
through Saturday with no precipitation expected.  Temperatures
remain 10 degrees below average on Thursday but warm toward seasonal
averages by the weekend.  N-NE winds 10-20 mph on Thursday, light on
Friday, switching W-NW 10-20 mph on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff