268
FXUS65 KTWC 252103
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures heating up into this weekend
bringing widespread Moderate HeatRisk with isolated areas of Major
HeatRisk as the monsoon takes a break. Moisture returns to the
area next week for a return to typical monsoon activity.

&&


.KEY MESSAGES...
-Dry conditions and hot temperatures increasing through the
 weekend, with the warmest day on Sunday.
-Moderate HeatRisk for the valleys with Major HeatRisk for the
 Upper Gila River Valley this weekend.
-Moisture begins to move eastward beginning Sunday to the far
 eastern areas, spreading into Tucson Monday, then area wide by
 Tuesday bringing back daily chances for showers and
 thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures will be increasing each day through the
weekend. Our moisture has eroded way and moved out to the east
over the last several days. We are near the bottom of the moisture
dip where it will stay around through the weekend. The increase
sunshine will aid in the drying process, bringing our relative
humidities down to the upper single digits in the afternoon. Stay
hydrated and practice heat safety this weekend.

Ensemble models show our moisture moving back into the region
starting late Sunday in the east-southeast Cochise County. The
deeper monsoon moisture (greater than an inch) will move across
Southeast Arizona Monday to Tuesday timeframe. The median ensemble
precipitable water will be 1.3 inches by Wednesday...nearly a
0.75 inch jump from what we have today (0.57 inches). This will
provide daily chances for rain showers and thunderstorms through
the new week. The highest chances and better coverage will be
Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will come down several
degrees and staying around seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
SKC for much of the valid pd. The exception will be FEW cumulus
clouds 10k-12k ft AGL until 26/02z mnly S-SE of KTUS and the
occasional passing high clouds during the forecast period. SFC
winds mainly under 12 kts with very localized gusts to 20 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Heating up into this weekend with dry conditions
areawide. Moisture returns to the area early next week for a
return to typical monsoon activity. Afternoon winds will remain
southwest to west at 10-15 mph, with occasional afternoon gusts
at or above 25 mph. Min RHs will be in the 10 percent range to
upper single digits in the lower elevations with the mountains
around 20 percent through Monday. Poor overnight recoveries is
also expected through Monday morning. Monsoon moisture will
return late Sunday starting in eastern Cochise County, expanding
west by Monday, resulting in higher min RHs of 20-30 percent with
good overnight recoveries of at least 45 percent to upwards of 70
percent. Plus, there will be daily chances for wetting rain
showers and thunderstorms through the new week. We are returning
to our monsoonal pattern.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Strongman

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