830
FXUS65 KTWC 220920
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
220 AM MST Mon Jun 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A dry forecast is in place into the middle of the
week. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal through
the work week resulting in moderate to major HeatRisk. Winds
will also be breezy each afternoon especially in Graham and
Greenlee Counties. There is also a slight chance for storms in
Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Broad high pressure extends from southern
California to the Gulf of Mexico and will lead to the hottest
temperatures of the year so far. The ridge will stay in place
through most of the work week then move southward as a fairly
strong trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin
this weekend. Today through Friday high temperatures will be
4-10 degrees above normal with Tucson possibly seeing five
straight days of 105 degrees or higher. The Tucson metro will be
flirting with 110 degrees with NBM probabilities for 110
degrees or higher ranging from 20-60 percent Tuesday into
Thursday. This will lead to areas of Major HeatRisk in the
Tucson metro, San Pedro River Valley, and the Gila River Valley.
An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect for these areas Tuesday and
Wednesday.

The placement of the ridge will put southern Arizona under
southerly mid-level flow which will allow some moisture to make
its way into the region. There is a slight chance of storms
over Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties as well as the White
Mountains Thursday and Friday. There could be some cloud
buildups over the higher terrain Wednesday, but right now NBM
PoPs are below 10 percent. Winds will also be breezy each
afternoon in Graham and Greenlee Counties into the weekend,
becoming breezy area wide Friday into Sunday as the trough
passes to the north. The trough will also decrease temperatures
some this weekend with highs ranging 1-3 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z.
SKC through the period. SFC winds W-NW 8-14 kts with ocnl gusts
20-25 kts this afternoon and early evening. Strongest winds will
be at KSAD. At other times, SFC winds terrain driven less than
8 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will remain west/northwest through this
week with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph across much of
the area with stronger speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph
in lower elevations of Graham county. Fire weather conditions
will be elevated most afternoons in the Gila River Valley.
Minimum relative humidity values will be 5 to 15 percent in the
valleys and 10 to 20 percent in the mountains through the middle
of the week. No storms in the short term forecast with dry
conditions expected through mid-week. Moisture moves in starting
Wednesday raising RH 5-10 percent and will also lead to a
chance for storms over the White Mountains and Santa Cruz and
Cochise Counties Thursday and Friday afternoons.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
evening for AZZ504>507-509.

&&

$$

Hardin

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