125
FXUS65 KTWC 230931
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
231 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS... Dry weather this week. Near record temperatures
possible through Tuesday, then closer to normal temperatures from
Christmas through the end of the work week then warming back up
again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed mostly cloudy
conditions area wide with back edge of the cloud cover moving into
western Pima county as of this writing. These clouds will continue
to move east across the area this morning with mostly sunny
condiitons areawide by 9 am. Well above normal temperatures to
continue into tomorrow with a few areas near record highs.

Cooler Christmas Day as a upper level trof moves across the state
with best moisture fields residing across northern half of the
state. There is a 40%-55% for light snow showers mainly across
the White mtns with little to no snow accumulation. This cooler
air mass, just slightly above normal, will continue across the
area into Friday as another system passes by to our north. A few
light showers/mountain snow showers possible across southeast
Pinal, Graham and Greenlee counties.

Warming right back up this weekend as strong upper ridge returns
to the area with well above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z.
Multiple layers of clouds AOA 15k ft AGl moving across the area
this morning with FEW-SCT cirrus level clouds AOA 20kt ft area
wide by 23/15z. SFC winds terrain driven less than 10 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with above normal temperatures
through the first half of this week. A passing disturbance later
in the week will bring cooler temperatures and a chance of showers
to the White Mountains Christmas Day and Friday. Minimum relative
humidity values 10 to 15 percent in the valleys into the middle
of this week, with 15 to 25 percent expected in the higher
terrain. 20-foot winds will mainly be less than 15 mph through
this week.

&&

.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures next 2 days.

Date                      Dec 23           Dec 24
                       FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport     77  80/2021      79  79/1936
Ajo                     78  81/2005      79  82/1955
Kitt Peak               61  65/2005      62  64/2005
Organ Pipe Cactus       79  82/1950      79  82/1989
Picacho Peak            73  78/2021      75  76/2005
Safford Ag Station      73  72/2005      72  73/1955
Sierra Vista FD         73  75/1917      73  74/1971
Tombstone               73  77/1955      73  76/2021
Willcox                 72  73/2021      71  73/2021
Douglas                 73  76/1955      73  74/1989

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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