675
FXUS65 KTWC 082013
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
113 PM MST Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably hot conditions are forecast to
continue, with chances each day to break daily high temperature
records. Though temperatures should come down a few degrees by
this weekend, temperatures should remain well above seasonable
normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery show a broad high
pressure ridge over the intermountain west. This will keep
temperatures above seasonal normals today and through most of the
work week. There is a weak low pressure center off the southern
California coast that is advecting moisture into Southeastern
Arizona. The moisture is just enough to produce cloud cover for
the remainder of today and into tomorrow. A few cloud build ups
are possible tomorrow to produce a stray rain shower west of
Tucson and towards the White Mountains. The rain chances are at
the most 10 percent on Wednesday afternoon.

Ensembles are hinting at a pattern change towards the end of the
week and into the late next week. A trough is poised to develop
along the Pacific coast and starting the cascading effect of
lowering height anomalies down across the region. The results in
cooler temperature and getting close to seasonal normal for mid to
late October. The details are fuzzy because of the differences in
the long term ensembles placement and timing of the weather
system. In the end, Southeast Arizona can start to experience the
Fall season and around normal temperatures by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 10/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 7k to 10k ft AGL. Daytime SFC winds NWLY for
terminals west of KTUS and ELY/SELY for east of KTUS with speeds
of 6-12 kts with occasional gusts to 18 kts. SFC winds in the
overnight period less than 10 kts and variable. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mostly dry conditions will prevail through the week. Easterly to
southeasterly 20 ft winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph for the
first half of the week. Minimum RH values will be 5-15 percent for
lower elevations and in the low to mid 20s for higher elevations.
A brief modest increase in moisture may result in a few light
afternoon showers (less than 10% chance) to areas south and west
of Tucson and towards the White Mountains on Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Strongman

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