800
FXUS65 KVEF 011109
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
409 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry conditions and seasonal temperatures continue through
  the weekend and into the start of next week.

* Potential for a monsoonal moisture surge midweek, with above-
  normal temperatures mid-to-late week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

Conditions remain largely dry across the forecast area, with the
persistent, dry southwesterly flow aloft. The forecast monsoonal
moisture push across Arizona has diminished considerably from
forecast runs several days ago, though the ECMWF and GFS ensemble
means continue to show 0.50 to 0.75" of PWAT climb up the Colorado
River Valley today. This moisture will elevate afternoon relative
humidities into the teens, but will struggle to produce much in the
way of cloud cover or precipitation. Similarly, latest NBM runs show
negligible (sub-10%) PoPs across eastern Mohave County, though
cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm formed
off of outflow boundaries from central Arizona. Conditions continue
to dry out through the weekend, with sunny skies and seasonal
temperatures expected heading into the next work week.

There is continued inter-model agreement in a trough pushing into
the Pacific Northwest / Northern California Monday and Tuesday,
while the monsoonal ridge over the southern CONUS / northern Mexico
continues to build. By midweek, this trough will have deamplified
the ridge over the Desert Southwest, shifting the center of the
high further east. This will allow moisture to once again creep up
the Colorado River Valley, with forecast ECMWF ensemble PWATs
peaking on Wednesday from Laughlin / Bullhead City to Las Vegas to
0.75 to 1.00". The NBM is not currently on board with this
solution, as NBM forecast temperatures continue to climb above-
normal mid-to-late week and NBM PoPs remain slight (10-20%) -
isolated to eastern Mohave County. Regardless, all models agree
that the monsoonal high will once again retrograde westward,
resulting in climbing heights and increasing temperatures.
HeatRisk in southern Mohave County increases to "Major" and
"Extreme" Thursday and Friday. Will continue to assess the
magnitude of the moisture resurgence midweek and the need for
heat-related headlines late-week as we move through the weekend.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Breezy
south winds continue through the period, strongest in the afternoon
and evening hours. Light and variable or southeasterly winds likely
during the morning hours after sunrise, but speeds expected to
remain below 10 knots until south-southwest gusts of 20-25 knots
arrive in the afternoon. Winds weaken again after sunset.
Temperatures exceeding 100F between 20z and 03z, with a high around
106F under clear skies.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light winds
this morning give way to southerly/westerly breezes across the
region this afternoon. Gusts generally 15-25 knots. Winds subside
after sunset except in the KDAG area where they`ll remain elevated
into the night. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies, with just a
few shallow cumulus over northern Inyo, Esmeralda, and northern
Mohave counties.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Woods

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