301 FXAK68 PAFC 081321 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 521 AM AKDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)... The surface low that was southeast of Kodiak yesterday afternoon has now tracked south of Prince William Sound early this morning. Its occluded front is wrapped around the low center and then over the sound and into the Copper River Basin. This low has pushed ample moisture into Southcentral and will bring areas of rain to much of the area again today. A complicating factor for clearing out the rain is the cold, upper level low that is centered near the Seward Peninsula but digging to the southeast and already phasing with the upper low with the current Gulf low. As this happens, it will give extra lift to the residual moisture over Cook Inlet and keep numerous rain showers around into Monday. Tuesday will see this upper low drop into the Gulf of Alaska with an upper level trough extending to the northeast through the Copper Basin. This will bring some partial clearing to most of Southcentral, but with the cold air aloft associated with this low and trough, there will be some instability which could possibly bring in some thunderstorms to the Copper Basin at that time. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures are expected across Southwest Alaska through Monday. Portions of the eastern and central Bering Sea will continue to see low marine stratus as the high pressure ridge continues breaking down and shifting east. A front moves over the Western Aleutians this evening bringing renewed widespread precipitation (moderate to heavy at times) for tonight through Tuesday across the Western and Central Aleutians. There is potential for a broad swath of 25+ kt winds with a small corridor of gale-force winds. Light rain is possible for the Pribilof Islands as early as Monday afternoon as the low works further east with precipitation making it to the Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN Tuesday. As for mainland Southwest, the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island have the best chance to see light rain on Tuesday as most of the moisture remains to the north and west of Bristol Bay and the rest of mainland southwest. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... An upper level closed low over the Central Gulf of Alaska continues its trek along the West Coast past Queen Victoria Island through the forecast period. An upper level ridge moves across Mainland Alaska through the week. Across the Bering, after a couple of significant shortwaves move through the pattern, a well supported negatively tilted trough sets up from the Russian Arctic to the North Pacific. The forecast blend of GFS / ECMWF and Canadian models carry the main features through the weekend, Most uncertainty rests with the smaller details. A decaying front extending from a Western Bering low into the Central and Eastern Bering and spreads its rain from Western Alaska to the Alaska Peninsula, diminishing through midweek. A well developed North Pacific low and front moves into the Aleutians and AKPEN early Thursday bring moderate to locally heavy rain over the Aleutians into Western Alaska, AKPEN and Kodiak Island by Saturday. Gusty winds approach the AKPEN from the North Pacific early Friday, and reach Kodiak Island through Saturday. - Kutz && .AVIATION... PANC...MVFR ceilings are forecast through much of Sunday as a weakening low in the Gulf lifts into the Copper River Basin with expected periods of light rain. Later this afternoon and evening the arrival of a second and broader trough into Southcentral from the Seward Peninsula will re-invigorate rain chances with continued MVFR conditions. Winds will remain light and out of the west to northwest direction through the evening hours, before becoming southerly as the aforementioned trough changes the pressure gradient tonight. && $$