587
FXAK69 PAFG 182323
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
223 PM AKST Thu Dec 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
There is moderate to high potential for another sizable snow event
to move across the state Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Confidence is still low on the strength and movement of this
system and thus snowfall forecasts are too uncertain to give a
good estimate. Otherwise cold weather continues for the Interior
with a brief break if/when snowfall reaches next week. Light snow
along the West Coast continues through Friday morning and some
additional snow moves across the Eastern North Slope Friday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold temperatures persist with lows in the -20s to -40s across
  the Interior.

- Low clouds in the Middle Tanana Valley brings flurries and
  keeps the area slightly warmer through Thursday. When clouds
  dissipate temperatures will fall again.

- Next week sees a chance for a brief warmup as snow and breezy
  winds disrupt the cold in the Central Interior Tuesday through
  Thursday. Confidence is still too low to give a good snowfall
  estimate, but snow is likely to be fluffy.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Snowfall along the Chukchi Sea Coast through the Southwestern
  Interior Thursday through Friday morning. Total accumulations
  between 2" and 4" are expected.

- Another system will bring a N-S oriented front across the West
  Coast late Saturday night into Monday.
 - Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches expected from the front.
 - Gusty southerly winds through the Bering Strait and along the
    Chukchi Sea coast may lead to periods of reduced visibility
    due to blowing snow.
 - Another wave of snowfall expected Tuesday through Thursday,
    but confidence is too low to give a good snowfall estimate.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Additional snowfall for the Eastern North Slope on Friday.
  Accumulations between 1" and 3" can be expected along with
  westerly gusts between 20 and 30 mph. Snowfall increases further
  east. Winds diminish Saturday.

- Southerly winds increase Sunday, stronger further west. Gusts of
  20 to 30 mph possible west of Point Barrow and up to 20 mph
  possible east of Point Barrow.

- Another system approaches the West Coast Tuesday bringing
  widespread snowfall and some gusty winds. Confidence is too low
  to give a good snowfall estimate at this time.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Thursday through Sunday.
At the start of the forecast period, Thursday, the overall pattern
is dominated by a very strong 570 decameter high in the North
Pacific extending a strong ridge through the Bering Sea. A trough
persists over the Eastern Interior, which, combined with the
ridge, allows small shortwaves to move through the West Coast and
Western Interior. A weak surface low following one of these
shortwaves is bringing light snow across the Chukchi Sea Coast
through Thursday night. This overall pattern blocks westerly flow
into the Interior and keeps temperatures cold. Eventually when the
ridge weakens and breaks down, low pressure systems will be able
to move into the Interior which will warm the region by disrupting
the cold air that has settled over the area along with any snow
and wind the low itself brings. No such weakening of the ridge nor
any notable lows are expected through the weekend. A shortwave
moving into the Eastern North Slope from the north will bring some
light snow and breezy winds east of Point Barrow Friday, but it
will not be strong enough to disrupt the Interior.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Sunday night through next Thursday.
Unlike the generally cold and calm conditions in near term, there
is potential for a larger system to impact much of Northern Alaska
next week. A larger low pressure system attempts to move east into
the region Tuesday through Thursday, but confidence is still low
on this feature. Most likely it will ride over the higher pressure
in the Bering Sea and reach into the Interior, bringing widespread
snow and some breezy easterly winds. Any snow is likely to be very
fluffy with a high snow ratio, increasing possible snowfall
amounts. Confidence is still too low to give a good snowfall
estimate at this time, but snowfall ranges of 3 to 12 inches are
possible. There is a chance however that the high pressure in the
Bering Sea is too strong and this low instead moves to the
northeast and primarily affects the Northwest Arctic Coast and
Western Brooks Range. We will continue to monitor this system as
it develops.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805>807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-810-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Stokes