985 FXAK68 PAFC 121311 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 511 AM AKDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)... Another exceptionally beautiful day is about to get underway for much of Southcentral Alaska. Satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies have graced the area overnight with the exception of some isolated patches of mid-level clouds, as well as a few upper-level cirrus closer to Yukon. Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low across the eastern Gulf of Alaska gradually drifting farther southeast, thus allowing upper-level ridging to amplifying as it extends from interior AK southwestward into the North Pacific. Alas, a summer weather regime. The main forecast challenge once again lies in the potential for afternoon/evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. Despite the ridge building in, the atmosphere will remain moderately unstable due to residual cold air aloft. Heating along the higher terrain, particularly that of the Talkeetnas and to a lesser extent Chugach and Wrangells, will aid in some convection initiating during the afternoon. In any case, shower or tstorm coverage looks minimal. Temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the work week with temperatures in the 70s expected for many of the valley / lower-elevation locations, with 60s anticipated closer to coastline. Increased onshore flow should bring slightly cooler weather on Saturday, but sunny and comparatively(to the last several weeks)-warm weather remains on deck for the weekend. -Brown .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Dry conditions will continue across Southwest Alaska through the end of the week, with exceptions along the Kuskokwim Delta coast, Nunivak Island, and the Western Capes who will see continued rain showers through at least tonight. Another separate low pushes out of the North Pacific towards the Aleutian Chain tonight into Friday morning. Its front brings a reinvigorated round of precipitation to the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula as well as a swath of southerly small craft winds with areas of gales through the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula. Small craft to gale force winds will move north, spreading along the Southwest coast on Friday. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for prolonged southerly flow into coastal Kuskokwim Delta. These winds will push additional water towards the coast, potentially raising water levels higher than the normal highest tide line. This pattern will persist into the early weekend, and as the front approaches the Southwest coastline on Friday, onshore winds may increase, decreasing by the late weekend. -KM/CL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)... High pressure will generally continue for the northern half of the state. Meanwhile, a low will move into the Bering and another in the eastern Gulf will retrograde westward into next week. A North Pacific low will drift east along the Aleutians towards the Gulf. The phasing of these troughs will keep the weather unsettled across much of the Bering, Aleutians, and towards the southwestern coast and possibly for the southcentral coasts. Periods of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds will be likely along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula given the plentiful moisture advection associated with this storm. Some differences appear in the models for the low in the Gulf and the weather outcome will depend on how it interacts with the approaching north Pacific low. A slightly northward movement will lead to higher chances of showers along the southcentral coast, while a southward movement of the low into the Gulf could mean the bulk of the precipitation will remain farther offshore. Over the mainland, easterly waves emanating from the Gulf low could mean afternoon showers or thunderstorm development. Toward midweek however, the ridge appears to strengthen inland, suppressing the trough southward, leaving warmer and drier conditions more likely across Mainland Alaska. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. A light sea breeze is expected this afternoon. && $$