211 FXAK68 PAFC 110007 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 407 PM AKDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)... A high pressure ridge pushing in over Southcentral Alaska is set to bring some of the nicest weather we have seen so far this summer! Skies will continue to clear as a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska pushes south. Temperatures will steadily rise over the next couple days with highs in the upper 60`s to low 70`s by Thursday. Afternoon and evening showers may develop on the slopes of the Talkeetna Mountains while shortwave perturbations being spun up from the low in the Gulf will aid in enhancing afternoon thunderstorms in Copper River Basin. High pressure looks to stick around through Friday night, so look forward to mostly clear and calm weather for the next few days! && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A weakening front stretched over the Eastern Aleutians/Southern Alaska Peninsula to Nunivak Island, bringing widespread rain and small craft winds to the region. There`s a small corridor of gale- force winds currently near the Pribilof Islands shifting northward tonight as the front continues to weaken. Tonight, a new low pressure system will enter the Western Bering, phasing with the previous low pressure system, re-initiating precipitation across the Western and Central Aleutians as well as maintaining the southwesterly winds. The new front will similarly sweep the Aleutian Chain through Wednesday into Thursday night bringing periods of light-to-moderate rainfall across the area. The Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island have the best chance to see rain while the rest of Southwest remains on the drier side, though cloud cover will gradually spill into the rest of the Southwest mainland over the next few days. Expect steady onshore flow into the Kuskokwim Delta coast to persist beyond midweek. This will coincide with the full moon and astronomical high tide, potentially resulting in coastal waters rising slightly higher than the highest astronomical tide line. This pattern may persist into the early weekend, and as the front moves over the Southwest coastline by late Friday, onshore winds may increase. -CL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... Not much change from yesterday`s long term discussion. Expect generally unsettled weather as several lows move across the region late this week and into early next week. The worst conditions during this 4-day span will likely be focused along the Eastern Bering Sea, Alaska Peninsula, Southwest Mainland, and Kodiak Island as a robust North Pacific low moves north along the Southwest Alaska coastline through Saturday. Increasing confidence in the low track means that there is also increasing confidence in gusty winds winds through the gaps and passes of the Alaska Peninsula, as well as through Kamishak Gap and into interior Bristol Bay. Additionally, periods of moderate to heavy rain will also be likely along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula given the plentiful moisture advection associated with this storm. As the low will move through rather quickly, total rain accumulations shouldn`t be too excessive. Another storm grazes the Central/Eastern Aleutians and Southern Alaska Peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday, then slides south into the North Pacific through Monday. With the storm track remaining further south, the worst conditions will remain offshore. For the western Bering/Aleutians, fairly quiet weather with winds expected to remain below 25 kt and areas of rain showers. Shifting gears to Southcentral ALaska, easterly waves emanating from a retrograding upper low will lead to more widespread rain, and a transition away from the warmer and drier conditions earlier in the week. The placement of the upper low continues to vary greatly among the models, leading to uncertainty with the timing and extent of rain. - KC && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will continue. A sea breeze up to 8 kts is expected each afternoon through the TAF period. && $$