702 FXAK68 PAFC 131257 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 457 AM AKDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)... Another warm and sunny day is on deck for Southcentral Alaska as a ridge of high pressure amplifies across the region. Today will likely be the warmest day of the year for many locations as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to 70s for most of the populated lower elevations. There may even be an 80 degree reading or two across the Susitna Valley or Copper River Basin today. Expect afternoon sea breezes for coastal locations and an elevated Turnagain Arm wind by this evening as a coastal ridge builds in. Afternoon convection along elevated terrain will allow for cumulus development each afternoon and evening into the weekend. The Talkeetna Mountains and the Copper River Basin remain most favorable for isolated showers during the evening hours, but coverage should remain minimal. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... * Special Weather Statement is in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta for prolonged onshore southerly flow through Saturday. * Special Weather Statement is in effect for the Southern Alaska Peninsula including Cold Bay, Sand Point and False Pass for strong southeasterly winds through Friday evening. A deepening low pressure system moving into the Bering Sea brings continued small craft to gale gap winds for the Alaska Peninsula through this evening. The winds will diminish overnight. Farther north, onshore winds from this storm into the Kuskokwim coast from Kwigillingok and Kongiganak Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning resulting in higher than usual MHHW. Coastal erosion and flooding is possible. Additionally, widespread rain from this storm continues for the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and coastal areas of Southwest Alaska through Saturday evening. Due to increased confidence in the storm`s more westward track, QPF amounts from this morning into tomorrow evening range from 0.01" to 0.10". A new storm moves through the North Pacific tracking south of the Alaska Peninsula bringing another round of rain there Sunday afternoon and evening. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)... Models are in fairly good agreement with the synoptic setup through midweek next week with the lowest confidence being toward the low center over the Bering Sea. High pressure will generally remain across the mainland of the state. Meanwhile, a closed low will linger over the Bering Sea and another in the Gulf of Alaska. A North Pacific low drifting east along the Aleutians towards the Gulf will merge with the main Gulf low by late Monday. The two main upper lows over the Alaska waters may phase, keeping unsettled weather across much of the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, Aleutians, and the Alaska Peninsula. Strong high pressure will block any significant movement in the weather pattern for most of the next week, but embedded shortwave troughs may allow for smaller, meandering features to resolve with rainfall and breeziness. Over the mainland, easterly waves emanating from the Gulf low could mean afternoon showers or thunderstorm development. Toward midweek, the ridge appears to build further, suppressing both lows, and leaving warmer and drier conditions more likely for most of Alaska. While confidence is high with the overall pattern, confidence is low for the weather associated with finer features near coastal communities due to slight variations in low centers. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will prevail. The Turnagain Arm wind may clip the terminal later this afternoon, though gusts should remain below 20 knots. && $$