001 FXAK68 PAFC 131332 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 532 AM AKDT Sun Apr 13 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A North Pacific low moves into the southern Gulf of Alaska this morning and will track towards the Barren Islands today before backtracking and cutting a path towards Yakutat on Monday. Another round of gales is expected along the northern Coast today and widespread across the Gulf by tonight. Strong down Inlet gale force winds ramp up this afternoon, with small craft spilling into northern Shelikof Strait. Gale force (39+ mph) winds will also be prevalent along the ridgetops of the Kenai and western Chugach mountains, with winds to small craft (24+ mph) for the ridgetops near Cordova and Valdez. Moderate to heavy precipitation will be mostly confined to the coastal areas, with drier conditions expected further inland and along downslope areas such as Anchorage and western Kenai. Some warmer air has moved in with a front yesterday evening, raising snow levels enough to produce rain at the surface. Rain is expected to continue at the surface initially, however, with some colder air moving in behind the front, snow levels may drop enough for rain to transition back to snow Monday night. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)... The current Winter Weather Advisories/Warnings remain in place as a low in Bristol Bay will pivot westward this morning across the bay and eventually southward during the rest of the day in the Eastern Bering. Gusty winds, snowfall, and blowing snow continue across the mainland Southwest Alaska coast (Kuskokwim Delta coast/Nunivak Island), southern Alaska Peninsula, and Eastern Aleutians. The key points to these advisories are as follows: - Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Blizzard Warning: Snow and blowing snow lasting through this morning. - Southern Alaska Peninsula Winter Weather Advisory: Snow, blowing snow, and gusty winds until this evening. - Eastern Aleutians Winter Weather Advisory: Snow, blowing snow, and gusty winds continuing until this afternoon. The main weather-maker continues to be a low pressure center in the eastern Bering Sea this morning. Currently its front is sweeping across the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island this morning. The low itself will move southward towards and over the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) through this afternoon before dissipating this evening. Snow, blowing snow, and gusty northerly winds will continue for the Eastern Aleutians through this afternoon and the southern AKPEN through early this evening. While conditions improve this evening, winds will remain gusty across the Eastern Aleutians, southern AKPEN, and Pribilof Islands through tonight with snow showers lingering across the southern AKPEN. Meanwhile, a low in the Gulf of Alaska tracks westward towards the Barren Islands through tonight into early Monday morning which will give interior Bristol Bay and the northern AKPEN rain/snow mix with the possibility of a couple inches of snow accumulation depending on precipitation intensity. Further west, a weak shortwave across the western Aleutians/western Bering continues to move east today through Monday before weakening. This will give the Central Aleutians a round of snow showers today through Monday afternoon. An additional low dropping out of Kamchatka looks weak at this point with most precipitation confined to the Bering as it moves south through Tuesday. A ridge builds across the Western Aleutians through Tuesday behind the next impactful North Pacific low lifting northward for Tuesday into Wednesday. The aforementioned North Pacific low will initially send its front into the Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN Tuesday morning before advancing north to mainland Southwest Alaska by Tuesday afternoon. The front pushes inland through Wednesday morning. There is still some uncertainty in the overall placement and track of this low through Wednesday morning. As of now, it appears as if the Eastern Aleutians will once again find themselves on the edge of the warm and cold side of the system. With a more east and south track, cold air can be locked in longer and allow for more snow. Conversely, a more northwest track would allow warmer air to work in quicker changing precipitation over to rain. Regardless, while the AKPEN might start as a period of snow or rain/snow mix Tuesday morning, warmer air will surge northward as the front lifts to mainland Southwest through the day Tuesday and into Wednesday with precipitation quickly changing to rain. Also of note will be the strong gusty winds that the low and front will bring. Storm-force winds will certainly be possible across the North Pacific south of the Eastern Aleutians and into the Bering Sea north of the Eastern Aleutians Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates as the active pattern looks to persist across the Southwestern mainland and eastern Bering Sea. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wed through Sat)... The progressive high amplitude pattern across the Alaskan upper level forecast is expected though the extended periods, aided by some pretty strong jet support. The main feature is an elongated upper trough extending from the Arctic through the Bering into the North Pacific on Wednesday and Thursday, tracking eastward along the Alaska Peninsula. This trough is expected to weaken as it moves into the interior of Alaska by the end of next week. In the wake of this system, expect a new area of high pressure to build back into western Alaska for next weekend. The high amplitude of the approaching low will bring high winds to the Aleutian and AKPEN late next week with moderate to heavy rain along the coast transitioning to snow in the higher elevations. As the low moves east, expect the intensity of precipitation in southcentral Alaska to decrease, but remnant precipitation will likely continue into the next weekend. - Baker && .AVIATION... PANC...The combination of a strong Turnagain Arm wind and tight pressure gradient over Cook Inlet should keep the flow down-inlet and away from the terminal this morning. The down-inlet flow strengthens as the day wears on as a low pressure system moves near Kodiak and the Kenai Peninsula. Strong cross barrier winds should keep conditions VFR through Sunday afternoon. Vicinity showers are possible Sunday evening as spillover precipitation may permit MVFR conditions. -AM && $$