098 FXAK68 PAFC 050119 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 519 PM AKDT Fri Apr 4 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)... A large low pressure system with multiple embedded centers located several hundred miles south of Kodiak Island has pushed a front to the Southcentral coast today, where it will remain stalled out through Sunday. Though the front brings moderate to heavy precipitation along the coast, inland areas remain primarily downsloped and therefore dry, with the main impact to sensible weather being cloudy skies and warmer overnight temperatures as a result. A series of shortwaves lift north across Southcentral Alaska over the next several days bringing increased chances for light precipitation for inland locations at times. The first notable shortwave lifts across the Copper River Basin tonight, allowing for a brief shot of rain/snow down to the valley. Given overnight temperatures in the mid 30s, any snow accumulations are likely to remain minimal outside of the mountains. A second shortwave during the day on Saturday could bring another round of light rain to the Copper Basin. Then on Sunday, a more potent shortwave brings a chance of rain to the Cook Inlet region. Near freezing temperatures in Thompson Pass allow for a few inches of snow near the road summit. By Sunday night, uncertainty abounds with the track of a new, consolidated center within the broad gyre of the North Pacific low. The most likely track based on ensemble guidance tracks the low into the western Gulf, near Kodiak, which would keep inland Southcentral mostly dry, with similar conditions to today and Saturday. However, there is a potential outcome (though currently less favored) where the low tracks further north into the Gulf, toward the eastern Kenai or even into Prince William Sound, which would, in combination with cold air nudging in from the west, lead to potential for more substantial snowfall for inland regions of Southcentral. Regardless of low track, colder air does look to work into the region, bringing much cooler temperatures Sunday night into Monday from the Kenai Peninsula up through the Mat-Su Valleys. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)... ...Key messages... 1) A Winter Storm Warning has been extended until midnight AKDT tonight for the Eastern Aleutians. 2) A Blizzard Warning remains in effect through 7PM AKDT this evening for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island. 3) A Special Weather Statement remains in effect through 7PM AKDT this evening for snowfall and strong winds for the Pribilof Islands. Active weather continues across Southwest Alaska due to a slow moving system in the North Pacific. This afternoon it remains several hundred miles south of the Alaska Peninsula and will meander eastward through the weekend. A band of northerly flow has brought 8 to 10 inches of snow and gusty winds to Nunivak Island, Kuskokwim Delta Coast, and Eastern Aleutian Islands. Drifts several feet deep and difficult road conditions have been reported in Unalaska. Slightly weaker winds and snow may persist overnight, however, these should significantly diminish on Saturday as the band breaks down and the low complex continues farther east, toward the Gulf of Alaska. High pressure currently over the Western Aleutians will build eastward in the wake of the departing system, bringing drier air Sunday and into the new week. A weak front associated with a system originating from the Sea of Okhotsk will clip the Western Aleutians this weekend, but should mostly stay south of the Chain. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday to Friday)... The main feature on the Alaska Weather map is the elongated upper level trough stretching from the Arctic through Mainland Alaska to the Gulf of Alaska and Eastern North Pacific through the forecast period. A number of shortwaves slide through the flow, partially eroding the upper ridge across Western Canada. The Bering ridge continues to build through the week, becoming a closed center across Northern Kamchatka by Friday. A blend of ECMWF and Canadian models maintains good continuity over most of the trough and the rest of the region through the forecast, while the GFS becomes an outlier drawing its focus on the Arctic upper low. A decaying low South of Prince William Sound pushes locally heavy rain over coastal zones from Prince William Sound to the Canada Border, with moderate to heavy snow mostly over higher elevations inland, diminishing Wednesday. A second low over the Kuskokwim Delta spreads snow over the Southwest Alaska coasts and across the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday. Gusty winds over the Eastern Bering move across the AKPEN for midweek. This low crosses Kodiak Island before swinging across the Gulf of Alaska through Friday. This round of precipitation tapers off late Thursday over Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula before moving into open waters. In the West, a well developed low over Southern Kamchatka extends a front over the Western Aleutians Wednesday. Locally heavy rain and windy conditions with gale force gusts expected to spread across the Western and Central Aleutians and Bering through Friday. - Kutz &&.AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will continue despite a low moving through the Gulf of Alaska this weekend. Northerly winds will dominate at the surface with easterly winds aloft. Therefore, wind shear is possible through tomorrow morning though most likely this evening. There is chance for snow early next week with the return of cold air. && $$