637 FXAK68 PAFC 021240 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 440 AM AKDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A broad upper level low over the Bering will slowly push northeast into Southwest Alaska and possibly into the Interior over the next 3 days. This will keep weather unsettled as broad southerly flow continues along the coast and multiple shortwaves develop along the southern edge of the upper low and move into Southcentral. For today, expect more southeasterly gaps winds through Turnagain, Knik, and the Copper Valley. Precipitation today should mostly be confined to the coast and northern Susitna Valley, through sprinkles to periods of light rain are possible in the downsloped areas. Moving into Tuesday the eastern edge of the upper low and a shortwave will move into Southcentral, increasing marine winds and gap winds once again throughout the day. With more upper level lift, expect moderate precipitation along the coast with now likely rain from the western Kenai north into the Susitna Valley. Winds aloft will slowly veer and become slightly more southerly, which will mitigate downsloping and allow for periods of light rain for Anchorage and the Mat Valley as well. For Wednesday there is some uncertainty in the upper level pattern with another shortwave rounding the trough. The location of this feature late Wednesday into Thursday is expected to either move up Cook Inlet or stay farther southeast and track towards Cordova. This positioning will dictate the precipitation field, but for now it still looks likely that just about everywhere will get some light rain Wednesday into Thursday, it`s just a matter of where the more moderate rainfall will fall. All the solutions for now at least show that the attendant surface low will stay south of the Kenai Peninsula, which should mean an end to the southeasterly gap winds by late Wednesday. -CJ && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... The low pressure system that has been residing in the Bering Sea over the last few days continues to bring active weather to most of southern Alaska. It will slowly drift toward Bristol Bay through tonight as an upper level shortwave rotates around the backside of the low center. This shortwave is spreading rain and gusty winds across the Aleutian Chain and southern Alaska Peninsula as it works west to east today. By midday today, the low will push another round of enhanced southeasterly winds and rainfall into Southwest Alaska, but both wind magnitudes and rain rates will be weaker than what was observed over the weekend. For the Kuskokwim Delta coast, elevated water levels are again possible during high tide today, but should remain below levels of previous high tide cycles due to weaker winds and lower tide height. Unsettled and showery weather will continue across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska through tomorrow night as the low weakens and moves towards the YK Delta region where it will track inland and diminish through Wednesday afternoon. An increasingly unstable environment for the Kuskokwim Valley may result in isolated thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, though persistent cloud cover may limit chances for thunderstorms. By Wednesday morning, a weak and fast-moving North Pacific low lifts north and skirts the south of the AKPen as it heads into the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday, with the bulk of precipitation associated with this system expected to remain to the south. Further west, weak high pressure will bring generally mild conditions to the Western Aleutians and Bering Sea through Wednesday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... The large upper level trough that has been persistent across the Bering and Aleutians will flatten somewhat and lift across Southcentral with embedded shortwaves rotating around the main trough axis. The positioning and orientation of the trough will keep a favorable storm track for Southcentral, which will continue to support cooler and wetter than average weather conditions for the long term. Model guidance suggests one wave of low pressure moves into Southcentral Wednesday afternoon. A break from precipitation may occur on Friday for the region between systems, though any clearing/daytime heating will present a chance for afternoon thunderstorms. Another system works into the area for Saturday and Sunday. -AM/BL && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty southeast winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm are once again bending south and away from the terminal for much of the morning, but will return this afternoon into tonight as the gradient again becomes favorable for winds to bend into the west side of town. Gusts to around 25 to 30 kts or so will be common once winds return this afternoon, and gusty winds will likely persist through tonight. && $$