269
FXAK68 PAFC 061437
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 AM AKST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The front we have been watching the past few days has moved to
northern Cook Inlet where it stretches across Anchorage and into
Prince William Sound and along the rest of the north Gulf coast.
Temperatures aloft have cooled down behind the front, but even
with overnight cooling the lower elevations of the Anchorage area
saw mainly rain with temperatures remaining just above freezing.
Farther north in the Mat-Su valleys, the temperatures were able to
just dip enough to bring snowfall, but amounts have not been very
heavy at lower elevations. Palmer might still see a few inches of
snow accumulate early this morning, but all areas from Cook Inlet
through the Mat-Su will see just some snow showers behind the
front which will taper off as the day progresses. Homer has seen a
number of these snow showers overnight even with temperatures
remaining above freezing which is a testament to the colder air
aloft that moved in behind the front.


A low can be seen southwest of Kodiak Island with its small
comma-head moving northward. Because this low is lacking upper
level support, it will get absorbed into a low that is developing
in the Jet stream that can be seen just a little southeast of
that low. This new low will rapidly deepen this morning and move
to the Southern part of the Gulf this evening then slow its
northerly progress overnight. There remains some model differences
with how far north this low will trek with the NAM being notably
farther north than the GFS or ECMWF and Canadian models. This
difference will affect how much wind and precipitation occur along
the north Gulf coast and if any snow can make it as far north as
the Copper River Basin for Friday into Saturday. At this time the
more southerly position that is reflected on the GFS and other
models clustered in the central part of the Gulf is preferred.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Thursday to Sunday)...

Currently, snow showers are occurring in the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay as an area of low pressure sits over the region.
Winds have turned southerly, so warm air advection is expected to
raise temperatures above freezing this afternoon. However,
precipitation coverage will dwindle as the aforementioned low
pressure starts to be pulled south and weakens starting Thursday
night. Meanwhile, a large mass of cold air is traversing the
Bering and is allowing for snow showers and gusty near gale force
winds ranging from the Pribilof Islands to Adak. This mass of cold
air will slowly migrate eastward over the forecast period,
bringing widespread snow showers and gusty winds. Due to these
characteristics, a Special Weather Statement has been issued for
the Pribilof Islands for blowing snow beginning this afternoon and
lasting until late this evening.

As the low weakens and moves toward the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge
will move in from the west. The cold air mass will remain in place
as the ridge moves eastward. The ridge arrives in the Bering by
Thursday afternoon, bringing drier air and calmer winds with it.
By Friday night into Saturday, wind speeds and precipitation will
reach a minimum in the eastern Aleutians and the Southwest Alaska
mainland as the ridge moves inland. Behind the ridge, however, is
a very large and strong low pressure system. This low`s front
will bring a bout of storm force winds and heavy precipitation to
the western Aleutians by Friday afternoon. Due to the colder air
mass ahead of it, the precipitation will initially fall as heavy
snow before warm air advection brings temperatures above freezing
and transitions snowfall to rain. Due to the combinations of heavy
snowfall and winds, visibility reducing blowing snow is possible,
starting in Adak Friday afternoon and reaching the Pribilofs by
late Saturday morning. Focusing on the winds again, a core of
storm force winds from the low will impact the western Aleutians
on Sunday as the center of this large low enters the central
Bering. Gale force winds will impact the rest of the Aleutians in
this same timeframe. Cold air will wrap around the west and south
side of this large low, allowing for the possibility of snowfall
once again on the backside of it.

-JAR

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through Wednesday)...

An elongated upper level trough extends from Siberia and the
Russian Far East across the Bering into Bristol Bay Sunday. This
trough continues to extend across the Gulf of Alaska with a low
center Monday that exits to the Southeast by Wednesday. A number
of shortwaves slide through the pattern across the Aleutians
before dropping into the Eastern North Pacific through the
forecast period. By Wednesday, a weak trough extends across the
Southern two-thirds of the state. A weak upper level ridge over
Interior Alaska for the weekend reorients along the Arctic Coast
by midweek. A semi-organized cluster of GFS / ECMWF and Canadian
models maintain the larger scale features. The shortwaves through
the pattern enhance the uncertainty with the surface details
through the week.

The forecast opens with a well developed low in the Western
Bering that weakens and moves to the Eastern Bering for Tuesday.
An extensive area of gale force winds are expected across the
Western and Central Aleutians diminishing through Tuesday, with
mid-range storm force gusts over the Western Aleutians through
Monday. A front extends across from the low over the Bering with
widespread snow wrapping around the low and spanning open waters
with the front over the Bering. The Bering portions of the front
stretches into the Bering Strait and Western Alaska, diminishing
for Wednesday. Weather changes to rain over and South of the
AKPEN. A surface low forms on the front near Kodiak Island late
Sunday and the system pushes the rain across the Gulf coasts
through Tuesday. Another front brings areas of rain and snow over
the Western and Central Aleutians late Monday through Wednesday

- Kutz

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...A front moving through the region this morning continues
to bring southerly winds and scattered rain/snow showers to the
area. Southerly winds gusting as high as 20 knots persist into
late this morning. MVFR conditions improve to VFR conditions
behind the front this afternoon.

&&


$$