345 FXAK68 PAFC 250010 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 410 PM AKDT Thu Jul 24 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Warm, dry, and mostly sunny conditions continue across much of Southcentral this afternoon. Later this evening, an approaching shortwave will bring showers over the Talkeetnas and upper elevations of the Chugach front range and Wrangell mountains. Friday morning a more substantial upper level low will descend from western Alaska, across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska, bringing cooler temperatures for Friday and widespread moderate rainfall to most of the region through Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates accumulations of 0.25 to 0.35 inch of rain for the southern Kenai Peninsula and Copper Basin, and 0.40 to 0.80 inch of rain for most other locations. Expect widespread Small Craft Advisories for coastal waters in the northern Gulf and areas around Kodiak Friday. By Saturday, the low will have moved into the Gulf, with areas of gusts up to gale force in offshore zones of the northern Gulf through Saturday evening. Warm temperatures quickly return as ridging builds from the west, though some showers may linger over the eastern Sound and Copper Valley. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)... In the upper-levels, a trough situated over the Seward Peninsula and a broad ridge over the Central Bering Sea will serve as the two major factors to the weather pattern for Southwestern Alaska. Ongoing showers over the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley driven by the trough orientation will continue early tonight and expand steadily eastward into Monday morning. The trough over western Alaska is poised to drop to the southeast tonight and Friday morning driving the southeastward expansion of the rain at the surface. Expect rain to expand across mainland Southwest Alaska through Friday morning, producing moderate to heavy rain at times for the Kuskokwim Delta, Lower Kuskokwim Valley, then Bristol Bay by Friday morning. Gusty northwesterly gap winds through the eastern Aleutians and AKPen are then anticipated Friday afternoon into Saturday as the low enters the Gulf. The strongest winds are expected along the southern AKPen east of Chignik, with gusts likely reaching gale- force. Small- craft northwesterly winds are also anticipated for the Bristol Bay marine area, lasting from Friday afternoon through at least Sunday morning. The ridge over the Bering continues to strengthen and remain nearly stationary, allowing for the persistent low stratus and fog to stick around. Following the passage of the trough and it`s exit to the southeast, the ridge will fill in steadily behind, expanding its influence eastward, spreading the stratus and fog across the eastern Aleutians, reaching the Alaska Peninsula by Sunday. Weather across Southwest mainland will quiet down following the trough passage, allowing for clearing skies and drier conditions Saturday into Sunday for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and portions of interior Bristol Bay. -CL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)... Few updates to the long term forecast since yesterday`s discussion, though a potentially impactful storm could move into the Bering Sea as early as next Thursday. The features to note for the long-term forecast will be a ridge over the Bering Sea, and a low lingering in the Gulf of Alaska through the duration of the forecast period. With the ridge, expect lingering fog and low stratus across the Bering Sea until the ridge begins to exit into Southwest Alaska early next week. Behind the ridge, expect windier and wetter conditions as a front moves in. We`re monitoring the potential for a low pressure system to intensify as it moves into the Bering Sea on Thursday, bringing the potential for gales. Robust moisture advection with this low could also bring moderate to heavy rain. It`s too early to say for now where this storm will track, but it will bear watching as we get closer to the end of the month. Otherwise, for the Southern Mainland, expect unsettled weather as upper level shortwaves rotate around the low in the Gulf and emanate from a longwave trough over Northern Alaska. -KC && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Rain will move into the region Friday morning. VFR conditions are expected, though high MVFR cigs and visibility in heavier rain showers have a low probability of occurring. && $$