029 FXAK68 PAFC 260105 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 505 PM AKDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Another partly cloudy to mostly cloudy day is in the books for Southcentral. The culprit, a shortwave trough currently overspreading Southcentral, will help shower activity increase in coverage. Showers will first affect the Copper River Basin through tonight, then spread into the Susitna Valley through the morning hours tomorrow. Temperatures this afternoon range from the 50s to low 60s, the warmer spots having seen more breaks in cloud cover. Despite the clouds, the combination of daytime heating, along with the current passage of the shortwave trough and building coastal ridge, should result in renewed gap winds developing through the remainder of the evening hours. Favorable areas for the strongest winds will be through the Turnagain Arm, out of the Knik River Valley, and up through much of the Copper River Basin. As the trough departs the region on Thursday, shower activity will gradually taper off from east to west. A low threat for an isolated wet thunderstorm or two is again possible this evening, especially near the Tok Cutoff, with a lesser chance further west from the Talkeetnas into the northern Susitna Valley. Thunderstorm chances go down even further on Thursday with continued cloud cover to limit instability. Subsidence on the backside of the departing trough will also help to keep a lid on any storm development. Gap winds return Thursday afternoon and evening, though to a lesser extent. Further south, an upper low will lift over Kodiak Island and become mostly stationary tomorrow morning. Its front will make very slow northward movement, not reaching the Gulf coast until late Friday or early Saturday. Showery conditions and small craft conditions are forecast from the Shelikof Strait into much of the Gulf on Thursday, with winds diminishing late Friday as the front dissipates along the Gulf coast. Friday will thus see improved conditions across the Gulf as well as improved conditions further inland of Southcentral. BL && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday night)... An area of low pressure in the Bering Sea allows for waves of moisture to push through the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska through tomorrow morning. Simultaneously, weak ridging over interior portions of the Southwest bring the chance of isolated thunderstorms to the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta. High pressure builds into the Aleutians Friday. An area of low pressure in the Bering Sea migrates slowly southeastward through the overnight hours. This will bring waves of moisture to the Alaska Peninsula and the Eastern Aleutians resulting in rain showers overnight into early tomorrow morning with rainfall amounts of a few hundredths expected. Heavier rain showers and areas of isolated thunderstorms from a westward moving trough this evening and overnight are expected. This will result in pockets of heavy rainfall from Aniak to Sleetmute northward. As the Bering low moves into the North Pacific, a separate low moves through the northern part of the Kuskokwim Delta. This brings widespread rain showers to the area late tomorrow morning and into Friday morning. Rainfall amounts ranging from 0.25" to 0.50" from Sleetmute to Aniak southwestward to Bethel and into the rest of the Kuskokwim Delta. High pressure builds in the Aleutians Friday causing northerly flow and fog for the Western and Central Aleutians. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)... On the Alaska Weather map, little overall changes on the previous forecasts. A closed upper level low continues to meander around the Central Gulf of Alaska through the forecast period. Over the Bering, an upper ridge pushes into the Western Mainland to link up with a ridge over the Northern parts of the state. Tuesday sees a new upper level trough from the North Pacific slipping into the Western Aleutians and Bering through midweek. The GFS and means covers the entire region throughout the forecast, with the other models diverging in the development over the Aleutians and Bering from Monday on. Locally moderate showers and scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the middle Alaska Range to the Eastern Interior through Monday. Scattered showers continue over the Southern Mainland through midweek. Coastal zones from the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island to the Canadian border are expected to see locally moderate rain driven onshore by the offshore surface low, fronts and troughs wheeling East to West. With the approaching North Pacific upper trough, a surface low and front spreads locally moderate rain and breezy conditions across the Western and Central Aleutians and Bering Monday through Wednesday. - Kutz && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Turnagain Arm winds increase this afternoon as a front moves across the southwest Gulf with gusts up to 30 kt expected. Gusts up to 35 kt are possible between 2Z and 6Z as an upper level shortwave moves through the area. && $$