613
FXAK67 PAJK 220629
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1029 PM AKDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.UPDATE.../to add the 06z aviation discussion/...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Marine layer clouds expected to move into the Panhandle tonight,
  bringing low clouds to outer coastal locations, into southern
  Clarence Strait, and down Icy Strait through Monday morning.

- A low in the Gulf returns shower chances and cloud cover Monday,
  mainly for the northern panhandle. This continues through early
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday afternoon/...The ridge that has
been dominating the weather over Southeast Alaska over the weekend
will continue its track out of the area through the rest of today
and into Monday. As this occurs clouds will begin to increase
over the area, due both the marine layer as well as an approaching
system. Areas along the Gulf coast that did manage to have clouds
mix out this morning will see the return of low stratus later
this evening, and this will slowly progress into the inner
channels. This layer is not expected to mix out as efficiently
tomorrow as additional clouds from a shortwave will also be moving
through. This shortwave will have minimal impacts to the area,
with light rain/drizzle showers for the northern Gulf Coast
possible by Monday morning.

An actual front associated with a low by Kodiak
Island will begin sweeping through the area by Monday afternoon
starting with the North Gulf Coast and progressing eastward through
the rest of the Monday. This front is fairly weak, but will bring
more persistent rain to the Gulf coast and then eventually light
showers for the areas primarily north of the Peterburg-Sitka line.
While areas south this line will see increased cloudiness, they are
expected to remain mostly rain free on Monday.

The low over by Kodiak Island will remain quasistationary and slowly
weaken, however, because it is not really moving the overall
atmospheric flow over SE AK will remain fairly consistent from
Monday to Tuesday night. With occasional rain showers for the
northern half of Panhandle and Gulf Coast, seasonal temperatures
and cloudy skies. A brief break in the precipitation portion of
the weather is expected Wednesday, however, this will be short
lived as the next plume of moisture will be moving NE over the
Southern Gulf and towards the Central Panhandle and Northern Gulf
coasts.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/...The weakening low
lingering in the Gulf, becoming more of an open wave trough as it
breaks down, will bring another round of precipitation into the
central and northern panhandle Wednesday, bringing largely light and
showery precipitation.

Surface ridging will remain over the southern panhandle before being
pushed out by a low developing in the north pacific, which will move
in towards the west coast of B.C. Wednesday night into Thursday.
Confidence has increased on the location of this low as it moves
into the area Thursday, with the deterministic GFS now joining the
EC with a solution of keeping it more southward towards Haida Gwaii
/ west coast of B.C. The ensemble clusters have likewise joined on a
similar solution, with the low bringing a front across the southern
and central panhandle Thursday before it keeps moving eastward into
B.C., with the heaviest precipitation remaining across the southern
panhandle. Expecting around 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rainfall Thursday
morning through early Friday morning for the southern coastline of
PoW and Ketchikan area, and largely less than 0.25 inches for the
rest of the southern panhandle and into the central panhandle, with
rainfall amounts diminishing as you move northward.

Ridging begins to build over the Gulf behind this low as it moves
inland into Canada, with shower activity Friday having potential to
last into Saturday after the system`s front pushes through. However,
the building ridge offshore will help to decrease precipitation
chances and bring a drier trend into the weekend. Lasting cloud
cover following the Thursday system will help to keep temperatures
around the norm for this time of year, with high 50s to mid 60s as
the high temperatures through the end of the week and lasting into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Tuesday/...With the exception of PAYA,
which is experiencing flight conditions in the MVFR/IFR category
range due to a persistent low marine stratus sticking around, the
rest of the Panhandle is starting out with widespread VFR
conditions. The marine layer may also snake its way back into the
rest of the Outer Coast, including PASI & PAKW, Icy Strait,
including PAGS, & also the extreme southern Panhandle overnight,
including PAKT. A weather system moves in tomorrow, bringing rain
& lowering CIGs & VISs to around the MVFR Category. Areas that
experience less cloud cover may experience some sea breezes, once
again, tomorrow. LLWS values look to remain relatively benign
through the 24-hour TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Ridging in the eastern gulf
continues to shift south as a low moves into the western gulf
overnight. Lingering marine layer and gusty winds along the coast
will diminish overnight as a shortwave moves into the eastern
gulf. A swath of moderate to fresh southeasterly breezes will
moved northeastward through the northeastern gulf through Monday,
bringing a chance of showers for the northern panhandle and gusty
winds along the northeastern gulf coast through Monday night.
Winds along the coast will diminish through Tuesday, with the
exception of Dixon Entrance seeing westerly fresh breezes continue
through the period. 4 to 5 ft wave heights will persist along the
coast, with 6 ft waves following the swath of winds.
Southwesterly 3 ft swell at a period of around 14 seconds will
turn slightly more southerly Monday, decreasing to 2 ft through
Tuesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Northwesterly winds along the outer
coast continue to push into the inner channels through Sunday,
enhanced by daytime sea breezing. Inner channels that are more
susceptible to sea breezes are blowing around 10 to 15 kts, with
the strongest westerly winds around 20 kts in Icy Strait, Point
Couverden, and Young Bay. Lynn Canal is seeing southerly winds
around 10 kts, but Taiya Inlet is seeing closer to 20 to 25 kts.
Winds turn northwesterly down through the rest of the panhandle,
with the strongest winds around Point Gardner and Cape Decision.
Areas that have saw those stronger winds over night, mainly west
to east oriented channels, will once again see an increase in
winds this evening, but they are not anticipated to be as strong
as previous nights.

An overall decreasing trend is expected for Monday, as the
weakening ridge shifts south and a low moves into the western
gulf. An exception to this is Taiya inlet where increased
southerly winds to near 20 kts are anticipated Monday afternoon
and evening. The marine layer along the coast is expected to push
inland again overnight, reducing visibilities in Clarence Strait,
Cross Sound, and Icy Strait as low as 2 NM into the early morning.
The low in the western gulf will send a weak shortwave into the
northern panhandle Monday, helping to dissipate the marine layer
through the early morning and sending showers into the northern
panhandle for Monday and Tuesday. 1 to 2 ft wave heights are
prevailing through the channels, with areas of stronger winds
seeing 3 to 4 ft.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Butwin
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...ZTK

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