834 FXAK67 PAJK 151851 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1051 AM AKDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .UPDATE...To add the 18Z aviation discussion... && .SHORT TERM...The forecast continues to remain on track. Broken skies across much of the panhandle through the day Sunday with high temperatures in many locations climbing into the low 60s. Some chances of occasional showers for the northern panhandle remain in the forecast as moisture attempts to traverse from east to west across the Coastal Mountains of Canada. A weak, closed low W of Haida Gwaii will send increased wind speeds and precipitation to the southern panhandle on Monday morning. Impacts from this weak front will begin to increase and push northwards Monday afternoon, though minimal rainfall accumulation is expected from this system. For additional information, see the long term forecast discussion. .LONG TERM.../Monday into next weekend/...A SFC low will push northwestward through the southeastern Gulf Monday into Monday night, increasing chances for rainfall from southeast to northwest, starting in the early morning & lasting through the evening hours. Winds associated with the tightened pressure gradient from this low look to peak out at around 25 to 30 knots(low-end Small Craft Advisory values) primarily over the southeastern Gulf waters & around the Dixon Entrance as the low nears those areas. Following that system, for Wednesday into Thursday, easterly wave showers look to be in store for the Panhandle, associated with a disturbance rotating around a weakening area of low pressure centered to the south of Haida Gwaii. For the end of the workweek into next weekend, a SFC ridge of high pressure approaches the Panhandle, working to clear skies up, dry things out, & increase temperatures. Current guidance suggests that temperatures in some areas of the Panhandle may push well into & may even surpass the middle 70s. This general scenario is further supported by ample warmer temperatures advecting toward & over the region at the 850mb level. Winds look to stay on the lighter side over the region for late in the workweek into the weekend. && .AVIATION.../Until 18Z Monday/...Primarily VFR conditions across the Panhandle this morning. The exceptions may be in the northern third of the Panhandle where some areas of HZ/FU from easterly winds blowing in FU from Canadian wildfires, which may bring VISs down to the upper MVFR flight category. Some scattered showers are possible for the northern half of the Panhandle during the peak daytime hours, today, from some easterly wave activity. For the southern Panhandle, a weather system pushes in from the south, bringing more appreciable rainfall & CIGs & VISs down to well within the MVFR flight category from this evening through the end of the 24-hour TAF period. The northern Panhandle will see a break in the precipitation & some higher CIGs & VISs after the easterly wave showers move out, but before the aforementioned approaching weather system moves in. LLWS centered at around 2 kft of between 25 & 35 kt south of a southeasterly direction is possible starting around 15Z Monday. && .MARINE...Outside: The main story is the weak low bringing fresh to strong breezes to the outer coast of Prince of Wales Island, which will continue through Sunday morning. These conditions will last through Sunday and Monday, finally calming down Tuesday morning. Wave heights increase with the highest wind speeds along the southeastern gulf, reaching up to 11 ft late Monday afternoon. Small craft advisories remain out through the period for the southeast gulf coast. Otherwise, along the NE gulf coast a marine layer will potentially begin to develop early Monday morning, resulting in a low cloud deck that combined with a small easterly wave may bring precipitation and lowered visibilities. Inside: Sea breezes will be the primary driver of winds through the day, though they won`t be much stronger than light to gentle breezes. Southern inner channel winds will begin increasing with the front in Sumner and Clarence Strait, and especially in channel entrances such as Dixon Entrance and Cross sound. Wave heights have potential to reach 4-6ft in Dixon Entrance. Light, patchy fog combined with smoke from the Canadian Wildfires are currently bringing visibilities down in Northern Lynn Canal. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641-642-661>663. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZTK LONG TERM....JLC AVIATION...JLC MARINE...ZTK Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau