684
FXAK68 PAFC 141244
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

Warm and dry weather is expected to continue through the weekend for
much of Southcentral Alaska. GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery
shows mostly clear skies across the area with the exception of the
Gulf of Alaska Coast, Prince William Sound, Kodiak Island, and
portions of the Kenai Peninsula adjacent to Cook Inlet. Low- to
mid-level stratus has expanded and moved into many of these
coastal locations overnight with a light onshore flow. Satellite
imagery also shows a few cirrus clouds moving southward and
clockwise, revealing the upper-level ridging that is overhead.
This ridge axis at 500mb is centered across interior AK, extending
eastward into Yukon. A pronounced shortwave ridge axis also
extends southward through the Kenai Peninsula. This pattern yields
the warm, dry, and otherwise pleasant weather we`ve had over the
past few days, but also sets the area up for a more active
showery/stormy regime in the days to come.

As we progress through today, temperatures should warm into the 60s
and 70s for most of the road system and populated areas, or just a
few degrees cooler than it was yesterday. The exception to this
being across the Gulf coastline where light onshore flow and
maritime stratus will keep temperatures on the cooler side. Some
drizzle/mist/sprinkles is also possible along the terrain of the
coast. As far as the rest of Southcentral AK, mostly sunny skies
are set to prevail today. The 00z PAFC RAOB shows significant dry
air through the lower and middle troposphere, due in part to the
subsident ridge aloft. With modest easterly flow and placement of
moisture, if any cumulus bubbles up enough to become a rain shower
today, it would probably be across the Wrangells or eastern
slopes of the Talkeetnas.

As we head into Sunday and Monday, warm and dry weather will
generally prevail with the sensible weather being similar to today.
However, the main difference will be that the flow aloft tightens
between the upper-level ridge centered to our north and broad low
pressure across the Gulf. This sets the southern half of mainland AK
within easterly flow aloft, with embedded shortwave troughs moving
from east to west. This creates a favorable pattern for showers and
thunderstorms with each passing trough and will be something that`s
closely monitored in the days to come.

-Brown

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The Bering low that brought strong winds and precipitation to the
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and areas of Southwest Alaska the past few
days will continue to move northward today. As it does, the
current coastal rain showers and southerly winds into the
Kuskokwim Delta will diminish and then end this evening. Dry
conditions are expected for the Mainland today.

A weak and fast-moving low tracks parallel to the Central
Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula, but remains south of there,
Sunday. Across this area, periods of rain showers and increased
southerly to southeasterly winds will accompany this storm Sunday
morning through the late afternoon hours.

A ridge of high pressure builds in the Interior Sunday and Monday.
This brings easterly winds across the SW Mainland the latter part
of this weekend into early next week. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible Sunday afternoon and evening from Aniak to Lime
Village. Isolated thunderstorms in the same area are possible
Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Models are in fairly good agreement with the synoptic setup
through midweek next week with the lowest confidence being toward
the low center over the Bering Sea. High pressure will generally
remain across the mainland of the state. Meanwhile, a closed low
will linger over the Bering Sea and another in the Gulf of Alaska.
Active weather will be mostly confined over the West with a
strong North Pacific low and front moving over the Central
Aleutians Thursday into Friday. A North Pacific low drifting east
along the Aleutians towards the Gulf will merge with the main Gulf
low by late Monday. The two main upper lows over the Alaska
waters may phase, keeping unsettled weather across much of the
Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, Aleutians, and the Alaska Peninsula.
Strong high pressure will block any significant movement in the
weather pattern for most of the next week, but embedded shortwave
troughs may allow for smaller, meandering features to resolve with
rainfall and breeziness. Over the mainland, easterly waves
emanating from the Gulf low could mean afternoon showers or
thunderstorm development. Toward midweek, the ridge appears to
build further, suppressing both lows, and leaving warmer and drier
conditions more likely for most of Alaska. While confidence is
high with the overall pattern, confidence is low for the weather
associated with finer features near coastal communities due to
slight variations in low centers.

-VR/AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. Southeast
winds early this morning turn southwesterly late this morning.
Winds turn back to the southeast late this afternoon into the
evening as Turnagain Arm winds bend into the terminal once again.
The highest gusts and core of winds should remain over the Arm
with lighter gusts, less than 25 mph, clipping the terminal. Winds
return to southerly overnight and eventually turn to the
southwest by Sunday morning.

&&


$$