844
FXAK69 PAFG 232109
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
109 PM AKDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A pattern change is bringing cooler and wetter weather to much of
the State this week. Thunderstorms are still expected today with
most activity centered over the higher terrain from the White
Mountains to the Yukon-Tanana Uplands. There will also be periods
of rain each day moving from southeast to northwest through the
week. Each period of rain and thunderstorm will come with heavy
rain, likely bringing wetting rains to much of the area. By the
end of the week, some locations, especially in the Eastern
Interior may receive upwards of 0.50-1.00" of rain. The heaviest
rain looks to come Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning from
a strong shortwave moving in from the Gulf.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Rain showers and thunderstorms with the bulk of the thunderstorm
  activity expected north/east of Fairbanks this week.
- Wetting rains likely across the Interior through Thursday with
   the heaviest rain expected in the Yukon Tanana Uplands.
- Wednesday afternoon into Thursday may bring up to 0.50" on its
   own, but uncertainty with placement of the shortwave and
   heaviest rain is high.

- Cooler temperatures expected with highs in the 60s and 70s.
  Warmest will be in the Yukon Flats where it`ll be around 80
  degrees today then cooling gradually through Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Wetting rains likely with periods of rain and isolated
  thunderstorms.
- Thunderstorms remain mainly north of Galena this week.
- Wednesday afternoon is a bit more unstable and there is a
   chance for a thunderstorm from McGrath north.
- Rainfall totals through Thursday may be as high as 0.50",
   especially in the terrain.

- Temperatures remain cooler with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- More seasonable temperatures are expected this week.
- highs in the 40s along the coast, and mid 60s to low 70s
   inland.
- A few 80s in the southern Brooks Range today, then widespread
   60s to low 70s are expected through the rest of the week.

- Thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain expected each day.
- Most thunderstorm activity remains in the Central/Eastern
   Brooks Range this week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge continues to weaken over the northeast Interior
as a low pressure system undercuts it from Bristol Bay into the
Gulf of Alaska. A number of shortwaves are wrapping up into the
Interior in a southeasterly flow aloft. The strongest is projected
to move up over the Interior on Wednesday night and Thursday. A
cooling trend with periods of rain is expected throughout the
central and western Interior through Thursday. A few showers may
reach north of the Brooks Range, but the arctic coast will remain
mostly dry. Widely scattered thunderstorms remain likely today
throughout the Interior especially for the White
Mountains...Yukon-Tanana Uplands and the eastern Brooks Range.
Diminishing storms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday except near
the Canadian Yukon border north of the Alcan.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A significant pattern shift continues to develop as the ridge of
high pressure over the northeast Interior begins to weaken. Low
pressure moving from Bristol Bay into the Gulf of Alaska will
spread a moist southeasterly flow up into the Interior. Cooler
temperatures, periods of rain and higher humidities will occur
today into Thursday. Wetting rains should occur across the central
and western Interior. Scattered thunderstorms remain likely today
throughout the Interior especially for the White
Mountains...Yukon- Tanana Uplands and the eastern Brooks Range.
Diminishing storms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday except for
the eastern Brooks Range and Yukon Uplands near the Canadian
border.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Water levels continue to fall for all the North Slope rivers as
snowmelt ceases. We continue to monitor the Tanana River as hot
temperatures have caused an increase in glacial and snow melt near
the headwaters. We are not expecting flooding but with the
expected precipitation the next several days there is a slight
chance for some enhanced rises. Otherwise there are no concerns.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A closed low will move into the Gulf of Alaska on Friday as the
pattern turns more progressive. A low looks to follow from Bristol
Bay into the Gulf of Alaska late next weekend. A warming and
drying trend with easterly winds aloft should occur this weekend.
Seasonable temperatures with less of a chance for precipitation
throughout the Interior and northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Bianco/Maier