407 FXAK68 PAFC 101254 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 454 AM AKDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)... Summer is on its way! With the cold low exiting into the Gulf from the Kenai Peninsula early this morning, the unseasonable cold temperatures will begin to warm closer to normal Wednesday. By Thursday, many temperatures in Southcentral will warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s under sunny skies. There will still be a chance for some isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially in the Copper River Basin, but a significant clearing and warming trend is on its way over the next few days. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A front currently situated over the central Bering and Aleutians is bringing widespread rounds of rain and small craft winds. There is a small core of gales set up just west of the Eastern Aleutians that will track north with the front, passing near the Pribilof Islands before tapering off near Saint Matthew Island. The front continues to progress eastward through today, reaching just offshore of the Southwest Coast by this afternoon. The Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island have the best chance to see rain while the rest of Southwest remains on the drier, though cloud cover will gradually spill into the rest of the Southwest mainland over the next few days. Expect steady onshore flow into the Kuskokwim Delta coast to persist beyond midweek. This will coincide with the full moon and astronomical high tide, potentially resulting in coastal waters rising slightly higher than the highest astronomical tide line. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... Expect generally unsettled weather as several lows move across Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea late this week and into early next week. The worst conditions during this 4-day span will likely be focused along the Central/Eastern Bering Sea, Alaska Peninsula, Southwest Mainland, and Kodiak Island as a robust low moves up from the North Pacific. There is still uncertainty with the timing and how far east/west the low will track. However, with good consensus that the low will push north into the Bering Sea, it looks likely that there will be gusty winds through gaps and passes of the Alaska Peninsula, as well as through Kamishak Gap and into interior Bristol Bay. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will also be likely across this area. For the Western Bering/Aleutians, fairly quiet weather with winds expected to remain below 25 kt and areas of rain showers. For Southcentral Alaska, warm weather and rain showers (with the potential for thunderstorms) under a ridge will likely give way to more widespread rain as an upper low retrogrades westward over the weekend. However, forecast confidence is low because the placement of the upper low varies greatly among the models. Steadier rain and stronger winds could be on the way as another North Pacific low enters the Gulf from Sunday into Monday, but forecast confidence is also low regarding the track of this feature. -KC && .AVIATION... PANC...Other than a brief period or two of MVFR ceilings early this morning, VFR conditions and light winds will persist. && $$