639 FXAK68 PAFC 090050 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 450 PM AKDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)... An upper level low over interior Alaska Monday morning descends across Southcentral, bringing scattered showers and the potential for isolated thunderstorms before it continues into the northern Gulf by Tuesday. Cold upper level air combined with clearing skies and a warming, moist surface layer will create unstable atmospheric conditions. Moderate to heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms with light hail may be possible overnight to early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will see this upper low drop into the Gulf of Alaska with an upper level trough extending to the northeast through the Copper Basin. This will bring some partial clearing to most of Southcentral, but lingering cold air aloft and instability could cause afternoon thunderstorms in the Copper River Basin. Drier and warmer conditions are expected by Wednesday morning, with most places reaching the mid to upper 60s, and a few reach the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A weak ridge of high pressure remains over the Central Bering, promoting low marine stratus across the region. Overcast skies and light rain over the Kuskokwim Delta to continue with relatively clearer conditions for more interior Southwest Alaska. Daytime surface heating allowing for the development of some cumulus over the Greater Bristol Bay area with some showers possible. Beginning this afternoon and repeating Monday afternoon, isolated thunderstorm development is possible along the foothills of the Western Alaska Range in the eastern Lower Kuskokwim Valley. This is due to an upper level low pressure system dropping over the area from near the Seward Peninsula. Resultant showers may persist into the early evenings. Over the Bering, the aforementioned weak ridge over the Central Bering will steadily shift eastward over Southwest Alaska, contributing partially towards the for convective potential there. This will allow for a low pressure system in the northern Pacific Ocean to enter the western Bering Sea this evening. This will bring renewed widespread precipitation (moderate to heavy at times) for tonight through Tuesday across the Western and Central Aleutians. There is potential for a broad swath of 25+ kt southerly winds with a small corridor of gale-force winds. Light rain is possible for the Pribilof Islands as early as Monday afternoon as the low works further east with precipitation making it to the Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN Tuesday. As for mainland Southwest, the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island have the best chance to see light rain on Tuesday as most of the moisture remains to the north of west of Bristol Bay and the rest of mainland southwest. -CL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... Ridging high pressure from the North Pacific will extend across much of the Gulf of Alaska and South Central portion of the State through late Saturday. The ridge breaks down over the Gulf as an an area of low pressure retrogrades westward from the Panhandle, back over the Eastern Gulf late in the weekend. This will setup a weak southerly wind pattern across western inland portion of the State and allow for warmer inland temperatures and an increased chance of convective activity across the inland regions. The GFS and Canadian models are in fair agreement with this pattern with the European being less dramatic with the westward progression of the Gulf low. A well developed upper-level low and its surface fronts, over the Western Bering Sea and Western Aleutians, will slowly weaken and recede northward towards the Chukchi Sea by early Saturday. A series of upper-level shortwave troughs will move into and across the Southern Bering and Central Aleutians through the end of the forecast period. The Canadian and European models handle this well with the GFS being the slight outlier. -DD && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions are expected this afternoon; however, showers will continue to build over the Anchorage Bowl through this evening. Any showers that develop or drift over the terminal will likely produce periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility. There is still plenty of lingering low level moisture in the area as a result of the slow moving upper-level through. As such, rain showers could be heavy enough to briefly reduce visibility to IFR thresholds. Low clouds will likely linger through the overnight as well as isolated vicinity shower. MVFR ceilings are expected to remain overnight. More shower activity is expected late Monday morning through Monday evening. Any breaks in the morning cloud cover may result in enough surface heating to help further destabilize the atmosphere and lead to the development of isolated thunderstorms over the Anchorage Bowl Monday afternoon. Winds through the period will be light, with diurnal westerly seabreezes shifting to light southerly winds overnight. && $$