848 FXAK67 PAJK 121956 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1156 AM AKDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .UPDATE...Aviation section. && SHORT TERM...Low circulation in the southeastern gulf with mid to upper level flow moving moisture north through British Columbia, the southern Yukon Territory and than across the northeast gulf Coast. Rain around Yakutat his morning will likely start and stop through the morning before the more organized moisture plume arrives afternoon and evening. This plume will clip the northern portion of the panhandle as far south as Juneau area Thursday afternoon and into early Friday morning. The southwestern portion of the panhandle is anticipated to stay dry for another day. LONG TERM...Through the weekend a 500mb trough will stagnate and retrograde slightly before being reinforced by an additional trough. At the surface, this will allow a weak low to meander along our coast. Consequences of this pattern include continued onshore flow, some embedded moisture, and southerly fresh to strong breezes along the coast Friday morning. One item of note is smoke from Canadian wildfires, expecting some transport into the region with the potential to smell some smoke in the north. This will ultimately depend on fire growth in British Columbia. Not expecting significant impact/haze for aviation operations at this time. Certainly a welcome break from our active summer. Into early next week, the lingering upper low over the SE gulf will have some energy inserted into it front the south that will restrengthen the surface low and send a new front into the southern panhandle Monday. This front is not looking particularly strong however with mostly light rain expected and winds may not exceed 25 kt for any given area. At the same time the core of the upper low is expected to become warmer with a shot of warmer air moving north through the panhandle on the eastern side of it. Expect high temperatures to rise into the 60s for many areas Sunday through Tuesday. The question mark is high temps in the northern inner channels at that time where easterly flow will produce a downsloping effect, some drier conditions and maybe peaks of sun which could lead to higher temps in isolated areas than what is depicted for this region right now. Into Wednesday, damp conditions return for most areas as the possibility of more easterly waves from Canada brings chances of rain back into the forecast for the north especially. AVIATION.../Until 18Z Friday/...VFR conditions will give way to possible MVFR conditions for some locations over the northern panhandle toward Thursday evening for the Icy Strait corridor, northward. This is due to cloud cover & rainfall that is seen on in satellite imagery over British Columbia which will rotate over the area through the next 18 hours. Elsewhere, over the Panhandle, primarily VFR conditions will be in store for the entire TAF period. MARINE... Outside: No significant band of winds along the outer waters Thursday and seas fairly settled with less than 4 ft expected. An impulse around a the low in the gulf will begin to ramp winds close to small craft range of 15 to 25 kt on Friday west of Prince of Wales Island. Inside: 5 to 15 kt winds across most of the inner channels with the southern inner channels switching from Northwest to southeast. West flow from Cross Sound and Icy Strait has a breezy spot early This morning of 15 kts near Sisters Island. Lynn Canal is assisting in dispersing the influx of winds with southerly wind to blow into Northwest Canada. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...ABJ MARINE...Bezenek Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau