335 FXAK68 PAFC 100713 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 1113 PM AKDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)... Rain showers across Southcentral are expected to continue overnight, but taper off by Tuesday morning. Although several lightning strikes were observed north of Kenai and near Seward, surface temperatures have cooled during the day, in addition to a lack of solar heating, these factors have limited more robust thunderstorm development through the day. For Tuesday, the low will continue southeast into the Gulf as an upper level ridge moves into the region beginning Wednesday. Widespread cloudcover will decrease but afternoon showers may be possible, particularly for the Copper River Basin and mountainous terrain with adequate moisture and warming surface temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere in Southcentral, mostly sunny conditions and normal to above normal temperatures are expected into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible along the foothills of the Western Alaska Range and eastern portions of the lower Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon. Otherwise, partly cloudy and dry conditions are expected to continue across much of Southwest Alaska, except for the Kuskokwim Delta where overcast skies persist. Ridging over the eastern Bering Sea has shifted eastward today, settling over the Southwest coast promoting areas of low stratus and/or patchy fog in the Kuskokwim Delta and Alaska Peninsula. A low pressure system and associated front in the Central Bering/Aleutians is bringing widespread rain and small craft winds, as well as a small corridor of gales over Adak Island this evening. The front tracks eastward over the next couple of days, bringing precipitation to the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday. As for mainland Southwest, the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island have the best chance to see light rain on Tuesday as most of the moisture remains to the north of west of Bristol Bay and the rest of mainland southwest. Isolated thunderstorms possible near the Western Alaska Range this afternoon into the evening. Expect steady onshore flow into the Kuskokwim Delta coast beginning this evening and persisting beyond midweek. This will coincide with the full moon and astronomical high tide, potentially resulting in coastal waters rising slightly higher than the highest astronomical tide line. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... Expect generally unsettled weather as several lows move across Southern Alaska and the Bering Sea late this week and into early next week. The worst conditions during this 4-day span will likely be focused along the Central/Eastern Bering Sea, Alaska Peninsula, Southwest Mainland, and Kodiak Island as a robust low moves up from the North Pacific. There is still uncertainty with the timing and how far east/west the low will track. However, with good consensus that the low will push north into the Bering Sea, it looks likely that there will be gusty winds through gaps and passes of the Alaska Peninsula, as well as through Kamishak Gap and into interior Bristol Bay. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will also be likely across this area. For the Western Bering/Aleutians, fairly quiet weather with winds expected to remain below 25 kt and areas of rain showers. For Southcentral Alaska, warm weather and rain showers (with the potential for thunderstorms) under a ridge will likely give way to more widespread rain as an upper low retrogrades westward over the weekend. However, forecast confidence is low because the placement of the upper low varies greatly among the models. Steadier rain and stronger winds could be on the way as another North Pacific low enters the Gulf from Sunday into Monday, but forecast confidence is also low regarding the track of this feature. -KC && .AVIATION... PANC...An upper level low over the Inlet will continue to push showers into the terminal through later this evening. During periods of rain, cigs may lower to MVFR. Rain will clear out of the area overnight, leaving behind VFR conditions and light and variable winds. && $$