570
FXAK69 PAFG 082109
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
109 PM AKDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...The North Slope remains mostly quiet with rain/snow
showers, stratus and areas of fog. Snow chances increase for the
Central Interior Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Light
accumulations of snow expected. Out west, a front from a low
in the Bering will bring some light rain to St. Lawrence Island
and the YK Delta this afternoon and evening.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
A weak upper low/shortwave will develop and track across the
Central Interior Tue evening into Wednesday then move northward
which will bring light snow to the Central Interior and
Northern Interior. Weak southerly flow will develop over
the Interior on Thursday. A strong low pressure system will
develop in the Bering on Thursday and track across the Aleutians
on Friday. A 520 upper low will develop in the Bering Sea then
track southeast and deepen to 514 dam by late Thursday night. The
low will then transition into the Gulf by Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior...A weak shortwave aloft will
produce some light amounts of snow, but higher terrain north of
Fairbanks and along the Dalton Highway has a chance to see a few
inches, while the Fairbanks area may be around an inch or less.
This front will usher in cooler air and temps will be on the
downtrend Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in the mid to upper 30s
for highs and lows in the 20s through Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A low in the Gulf of Anadyr will bring a front with mostly rain
showers from St. Lawrence Island to the YK Delta Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday. Moving into the end of the week, northerly flow
increases once again from the Chukchi through the Bering with gale
force winds looking likely by Thursday night. The low pressure
sytem in the Bering on Thursday will move south and strong northerly
flow will develop over the Bering Friday into Saturday. Wind gusts
may be upwards of 55 mph in Diomede, Wales and St. Lawrence
Island. This, along with some snow showers could lead to quick
moving squalls. Strong northerly wind and snow showers will
persist through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Quiet weather will persist. Snow and rain showers for the NW
Arctic Coast will persist through Friday. Accumulations will be
light, around an inch or less. Otherwise, offshore flow east of
Utqiagvik will keep the fog at bay, but stratus will remain over
the area. Steadier snow is expected in the Central and Eastern
Brooks Range Wednesday night into Thursday. The snow then moves
northeast towards Prudhoe Bay and Kaktovik by Thursday night and
Friday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Along the West Coast,
northerly winds will ramp back up to gale force on Friday as a
strong low pressure system pushes into the Gulf of AK. A strong
shortwave progged to move northward which may bring the highest
chance for snow of the year in the Interior on Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$