855
FXAK69 PAFG 172226
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
126 PM AKST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blizzard conditions will improve across the Arctic coast this
evening, but winds will still be brisk. Elsewhere, winter`s grip
continues to dominate with temperatures remaining well below
normal for all but the west coast. A front will reach the west
coast tonight and will manage to bring a few additional inches of
snow through Friday. This system will eventually push a few
clouds eastwards into the central Interior along with some light
snow for Friday. While interior snow will be on the light side,
the clouds will help moderate temps a bit. Any relief from the
extreme cold will be brief however as an overall pattern change is
not expected until closer to Christmas.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Clear skies will allow for colder temps tonight and Thursday
  with lows in the -30s and -40`s throughout the central interior.

- The next chance for light snowfall looks to be early Friday with
  greater probabilities further west. Clouds associated with this
  system should bring temperatures up by a few degrees, but this
  effect will be most pronounced further west.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Another system moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea looks to
  bring light snow to all areas beginning tonight and lasting
  through Friday. Accumulations between 2" and 4" are expected.

- Widespread winds, mostly southerly, with gusts between 20 and 30
  mph will accompany the system. The strongest winds will be
  across the western Seward Peninsula and around St. Lawrence
  Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Winds will continue to subside through the evening and
  overnight, helping to alleviate the blowing snow situation.

- Another system will begin to move south over the NE Arctic Coast
  on Friday. Snowfall between 1" and 3" can be expected along with
  gusts between 20 and 30 mph. Heavier snowfall can be expected
  farther east along the Arctic Coast.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Our highly amplified blocking pattern remains in place, but there
are signs that a change is on the distant horizon (more included
in the extended discussion below). Until then we will continue to
see much below normal temps across the central and especially
eastern Interior thanks to a nearly stationary 1030 surface high
over the Alcan border.

Wind speeds will continue to slowly come down across the eastern
Arctic coast this evening and overnight, limiting the blowing snow
potential. However a couple of southward tracking short waves
will keep scattered snow showers over much of the North Slope the
next few days. In general total snowfall over the North Slope
will be 2 to 4 inches through Saturday as these disturbances move
past.

Meanwhile, a fairly energetic shortwave will approach the NW
Arctic coast later tonight and could bring a quick 2 to 4 inches
of snow to the Northwest Arctic Borough and Seward Peninsula
Thursday through Friday. This energy will quickly track
southwards through the western Interior Friday and could also
deliver a few inches of new snow there as well. Any snow that
manages to reach the central interior will be very light (similar
to what was seen Tuesday across the interior). However temps may
warm slightly by Friday thanks to some passing clouds, but temps
will still be well below normal.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The blocking pattern now looks like it will not break down until
some time next week. A N-S oriented front will be moving westerly
across the Bering and over the West Coast by Sunday. Another,
stronger system will follow quickly behind this front. While these
two will both work to break down the ridge over the Bering and
push it south, it will likely be a third disturbance moving up and
over the ridge that will eventually signal an overall pattern
change with the ridge retreating over Siberia and troughing
encompassing much of Alaska. Models are showing the potential for
W to SW flow across the southern half of the state in the
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame as the third system nears. With this
system, another round of widespread snowfall is expected across
the West Coast and the Interior just in time for Christmas.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808-809.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Laney