325
FXAK69 PAFG 122300
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
300 PM AKDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A summery pattern continues in the Interior with increasing
temperatures each day through Sunday. The West Coast remains
cooler than the Interior but above average with areas wind and
areas of rain through Saturday. The North Slope will finally be
warming up, albeit pretty rapidly with a Flood Watch issued for
rapid snowmelt and possible ice jams for rivers draining the
Brooks Range.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures climb into the upper 70s tomorrow and low to mid
  80s this weekend.

- Isolated thunderstorms, mostly in the Eastern Interior through
  Saturday, then from Galena North/East on Sunday.

- Areas of haze over the Interior from Canadian wildfire smoke.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Wet over the coast with a slug of rainfall bringing 0.50 to 1.00
  inches of rain over the Southern Seward Peninsula, YK Delta and
  Bering Strait tonight through Friday night.

- Southeast winds will increase on Saturday with gusts to 30 mph
  in the Southern Seward Peninsula, 40 mph in St. Lawrence Island
  and up to 50 mph along the YK Delta Coast.

- Temperatures continue to warm, especially in the Western
  Interior with highs to 75 to 80 this weekend. Highs along the
  coast will be in the low to mid 60s.
- 40s and 50s remain in St. Lawrence Island, Bering Strait and YK
   Delta Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Breezy south winds over the Western Arctic Coast through the
  weekend with the strongest gusts up to 35 mph in Point Hope.

- Periods of rain in the Western Brooks Range and Western Arctic
  Coast this weekend.

- Partly to mostly sunny for the Eastern Arctic expected with
  warming temps.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 565 decameter high over the Northern Yukon drifts southeast then
spreads over the Interior this weekend. A 532 decameter low in the
Bering is bringing a front to the West Coast tonight into
tomorrow. A shortwave trough will move into the southern Bering
tomorrow afternoon bringing another round of rain to the West
Coast on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temps will continue to warm through the weekend, peaking on
Sunday as the ridge closes off over the N Mainland. Expect high
temps in the mid to upper 80s with minimum RHs in the upper
teens/low 20s. Isolated wet thunder will be possible over the SE
Interior and Fortymile/Yukon-Tanana Uplands today and will expand
north tomorrow. More significant thunderstorm chances are
possible Sunday and Monday along the periphery of the upper high,
especially in the Southern and Western Interior. Out west, it will
remain windy, rainy, and moist along the Coast through Friday
with drying and warming conditions Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flooding is possible across the North Slope due to an unusually
deep and persistent late-season snowpack combined with a sharp and
prolonged warming trend through the rest of the week into the
weekend. Snowpack remains largely intact across the North Slope,
with some sites reporting near record snowpack levels for this
time of year. A rapid onset of snowmelt is expected as
temperatures warm into the 50`s and 60`s across the north side of
the Brooks Range, with interior portions of the North Slope
expected to potentially warm into the 70s by the weekend. Intact
ice remains on many of the larger rivers, and the sudden influx of
snowmelt runoff could lead to ice jam formation. These jams can
cause sudden and severe rises in water levels, posing a
significant threat to roads or other infrastructure near the
affected waterways. River levels are expected to begin rising
within the next 24 hours and will likely crest by the end of the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The story for the extended is broad ridging across Alaska with
very warm temperatures and chances for storms. The challenge will
be pinpointing exactly where the ridge sets up, but it will be hot
across much of Alaska regardless of where it is. There will be
active thunderstorm activity as well and we will monitor the
thermal low because this will be one of the drivers for where
thunderstorms set up.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ804>806-808-810.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853-854.
&&

$$

Bianco