682
FXAK68 PAFC 091336
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 AM AKDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

A cold-core upper level low is moving into Southcentral Alaska
today. The first wave from this low is moving through the
Matanuska Valley and Susitna Valley early this morning bringing
areas of fairly heavy rain showers. There will be periods of rain
showers throughout SOuthcentral today as this low moves through
the area. The big uncertainty is whether there will be enough
instability for a thunderstorm or two to develop. The cold air
aloft in conjunction with this low is certainly a big factor in
favor of this possibility, however, it looks like surface
temperatures will be cool enough throughout the day to really
make it difficult to initiate convection. The big caveat is
whether there will be any sustained breaks in the could over the
Kenai Peninsula and Susitna Valley. this could happen as the low
passes over the area and westerly flow in the lee of the Alaska
and Aleutian Ranges allows enough cloud breaks, However, the
atmosphere is pretty saturated so it does not look likely to have
long enough breaks in the cloud cover today to really get the low
levels warm enough so backed off on the chance of thunderstorms
today, though it will be something to keep track of as the day
progresses.

By Tuesday, the low will move into the Gulf and then slowly
continue its southeasterly journey out of the area as an upper
level ridge moves into the region beginning Wednesday. This will
bring some partial clearing for Tuesday, but still enough moisture
for afternoon and evening showers along the mountains and in the
Copper River Basin. Wednesday will see areas around Cook Inlet
become mostly sunny and warm up to near or above normal
temperatures. The Copper Basin may still see lingering showers or
thunderstorms Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible along the foothills of
the Western Alaska Range and eastern portions of the lower
Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly partly cloudy
to mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected to continue
across much of Southwest Alaska.

Ridging over the eastern Bering Sea shifts eastward through today
promoting areas of low stratus and/or patchy fog. Low clouds will
spill over onto the Southwest Coast as the ridge pushes onshore
today. A front moved into the western Bering/Aleutians yesterday
evening, bringing widespread rain and small craft winds, as well
as a small corridor of gales over the Rat Islands and Andreanof
Islands. The front tracks eastward over the next couple of days,
bringing precipitation to the Eastern Aleutians and southern
Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday. As for mainland Southwest, the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island have the best chance to
see light rain on Tuesday as most of the moisture remains to the
north of west of Bristol Bay and the rest of mainland southwest.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Ridging high pressure from the North Pacific will extend across
much of the Gulf of Alaska and South Central portion of the State
through late Saturday. The ridge breaks down over the Gulf as an
an area of low pressure retrogrades westward from the Panhandle,
back over the Eastern Gulf late in the weekend. This will setup a
weak southerly wind pattern across western inland portion of the
State and allow for warmer inland temperatures and an increased
chance of convective activity across the inland regions. The GFS
and Canadian models are in fair agreement with this pattern with
the European being less dramatic with the westward progression of
the Gulf low.


A well developed upper-level low and its surface fronts, over the
Western Bering Sea and Western Aleutians, will slowly weaken and
recede northward towards the Chukchi Sea by early Saturday. A
series of upper-level shortwave troughs will move into and across
the Southern Bering and Central Aleutians through the end of the
forecast period. The Canadian and European models handle this well
with the GFS being the slight outlier.


-DD

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and vicinity showers will be common through
midday across Anchorage as an upper trough moves from interior
Alaska down into the western Gulf. Expect shower chances to
increase in the afternoon with MVFR conditions likely over the
latter half of the day. Winds will remain light through the TAF
period.

&&


$$