804 FXAK68 PAFC 111259 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 459 AM AKDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)... Skies will continue to clear as a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska pushes south and a high pressure ridge continues to push into Southcentral. Temperatures will also steadily rise over the next couple days with highs in the mid 60`s to mid 70`s for Thursday and Friday. The big uncertainty to the forecast will be the extent of afternoon and evening showers and potential thunderstorms today and tomorrow, and to a lesser extent, Friday. The atmosphere is rather unstable with residual cool air aloft, even with the ridge building in. Mountains will provide some elevated heating to help initiate this afternoon and evening convection, though it should mostly remain over the mountains. Another interesting factor that could weigh in is that there has bee some recent snowfall of many of the Southcentral Mountains with the very cold system over the past week. This could then inhibit some of that elevated hating just mentioned. As always, there is a balance of opposing forces! So while there should be a good bit of sunny weather upcoming, there does remain the possibility for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the Talkeetna and Chugach Mountains and into the Copper River Basin today and tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A low moves over the Western Aleutians overnight into early this morning, bringing continue light rain showers and cloudy skies to the area. Most of Southwest Alaska will continue to see drier conditions with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies today. Cloud cover will continue to spill eastward to cover more of Southwest Alaska over the next couple of days. Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta coast will continue to see periods of rain over the next couple of days. Another separate low pushes out of the North Pacific towards the Aleutian Chain Thursday night into Friday morning. Its front brings a reinvigorated round of precipitation to the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula as well as a swath of southerly small craft winds with areas of gales through the gaps north of the Eastern Aleutians. Expect steady onshore flow into the Kuskokwim Delta coast to persist. This will coincide with the full moon and astronomical high tide, potentially resulting in coastal waters rising slightly higher than the highest astronomical tide line. This pattern may persist into the early weekend, and as a front moves over the Southwest coastline by late Friday, onshore winds may increase. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... Not much change from yesterday`s long term discussion. Expect generally unsettled weather as several lows move across the region late this week and into early next week. The worst conditions during this 4-day span will likely be focused along the Eastern Bering Sea, ALaska Peninsula, Southwest Mainland, and Kodiak Island as a robust North Pacific low moves north along the Southwest ALaska coastline through Saturday. Increasing confidence in the low track means that there is also increasing confidence in gusty winds winds through the gaps and passes of the ALaska Peninsula, as well as through Kamishak Gap and into interior Bristol Bay. Additionally, periods of moderate to heavy rain will also be likely along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula given the plentiful moisture advection associated with this storm. As the low will move through rather quickly, total rain accumulations shouldn`t be too excessive. ANother storm grazes the Central/eastern ALeutians and Southern ALaska Peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday, then slides south into the North Pacific through Monday. With the storm track remaining further south, the worst conditions will remain offshore. For the western Bering/Aleutians, fairly quiet weather with winds expected to remain below 25 kt and areas of rain showers. Shifting gears to Southcentral ALaska, easterly waves emanating from a retrograding upper low will lead to more widespread rain, and a transition away from the warmer and drier conditions earlier in the week. The placement of the upper low continues to vary greatly among the models, leading to uncertainty with the timing and extent of rain. - KC && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will continue. A sea breeze is expected this afternoon. && $$