982 FXUS64 KBMX 082313 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 613 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025 Going with a status quo forecast for now with no big changes. Given the abundance of sun in the northwest, expect these areas to be near or exceed the convection temperatures this afternoon. Any shower/storm that gets going may persist through sunset, so added in some slight chance PoPs through 10 pm, although it may be more like 8 pm. The ridge builds in a little more on Saturday, but edges northward. The main clouds and precipitation will be primarily across the southern portions of the area with the highest rain chances along and south of I-85. Did adjust the highs in the north upwards a few degrees above guidance with more sun. 16 Previous short-term discussion: (Today through Saturday) Issued at 102 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025 The persistent wedge high remains in place across the East Coast, maintaining easterly low-level flow across Central Alabama. A strong mid-level anticyclone remains centered over New Mexico with a ridge axis extending northeastward to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A broad/disorganized 500mb height weakness remains across the Southeast CONUS. Another surge of dry northeasterly flow moves down the East Coast and into Central Alabama today, causing dew points to mix out some and limiting convective coverage to 10 percent or less in most areas. One potential exception is our northwest counties where some 20 PoPs have been added per the HREF thunder probabilities and NBM 5.0 PoPs. Here MLCAPE will be slightly higher with more moisture and potential influence of a shortwave in water vapor imagery currently moving southward across Missouri. Still, overall it will be a relatively pleasant day for early August. Mid-level ridging builds across the eastern CONUS on Saturday, while some tropical (PWATs > 2 in) moisture begins to move into Central Alabama from the southeast. Moisture return continues to trend slower, however, given the dry easterly flow from the wedge. PoPs have trended lower, and will note that the HREF members are much drier than the global ensemble members. 32/JDavis && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025 The forecast concept remains the same as previous, so little changes were required. Sunday does look a touch warmer than guidance in the northwest, so went with a blend and slightly higher than guidance. The same blend keeps temperatures about the same in the southeast, where the higher rain chances are, raising confidence as the wider range of probabilities gives the same numbers as the guidance. For next week, we continue the normal summer weather with afternoon/evening slow moving storms and temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. 16 Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 102 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025 Mid-level ridging persists across the eastern CONUS through the rest of the period, though with a few embedded disturbances. Subtropical ridging also tries to build westward from the western Atlantic. However, with PWATs at or above 2 inches and increased 1000-500mb mean RH values, diurnal convective coverage will be above normal. Slow-moving storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Despite the ridging, the increased coverage of convection should keep temperatures in check, with only low chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees by Thursday. 32/JDavis && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025 VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. Another round of low level stratus develops through the morning hours tomorrow for all terminals but TCL. VFR gradually returns by mid morning for most with AUO holding onto MVFR cigs for a bit longer. Winds will be a tad stronger at MGM/AUO tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots possible. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... No issues from fire weather elements are expected over the coming days. Daily showers and thunderstorms will be most focused on the afternoon to evening time frame, though these will be more isolated through tomorrow. 20-foot winds will be light, except variable and gusty in and near showers and thunderstorms. Better rain chances in the south and east starting Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 90 69 89 / 10 10 0 30 Anniston 69 87 71 86 / 10 20 10 40 Birmingham 71 89 72 88 / 10 10 0 40 Tuscaloosa 72 90 73 90 / 10 10 10 40 Calera 70 88 72 88 / 10 20 10 40 Auburn 70 86 71 86 / 10 30 10 60 Montgomery 71 89 72 90 / 0 30 10 50 Troy 70 87 71 87 / 0 40 10 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...95/Castillo