500 FXUS64 KBMX 121559 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1059 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025 An upper level trough will swing through the Great Lakes area, while a high pressure remains over the northern Gulf. Between these two systems a pressure gradient will increase today over the TN Valley, with mid level winds increasing. This puts the north and northwestern half of the state with locally higher winds, with weaker winds in the southern half of the state closer to the center of high pressure. Diurnal convection is once again expected, and very isolated in nature. Instabilities will be several thousand, LI values look to be a little higher, around -7 to -8 this afternoon across the whole area, and DCAPE also looks to be higher, between around 700 and 900 J/kg. PW values will be near max in the western part of the state, where west to southwesterly flow prevailing this afternoon will bring moisture and warm air. With all this said, would expect a few storms to be strong, and an isolated severe threat is included for strong downburst winds. Moderate hail can`t be excluded, with a few parameters supportive of strong updraft strength. A Marginal Risk is included for the north and northwest with those higher wind speeds in the mid and low levels. By Sunday, the upper level influences will have moved to the east with that low and mid level weak jet decreasing in strength. The high pressure will have more of an influence over the area, with west to southwesterly prevailing flow remaining. Diurnal convection is once again expected. Lapse rates don`t appear to be quite as steep with less moisture advection. However, instabilities remain high and there is more dry air in the mid levels for evaporative cooling and downburst strength the increase. There could be yet again strong storms, and will advertise a very isolated severe threat for now, dependent on the moisture return available. Heat indices today will be in the mid to upper 90s, with a few isolated pockets of triple digits. Sunday, temperatures will be slightly warmer with heat indices more scattered across the area into the triple digits. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025 Monday, a surface high pressure strengthens and becomes centered over an AL/MS area. This will allow for northerly low and mid level flow to prevail, bringing in slightly lower moisture. In the upper levels, models are trying to show a low to the west of the MS, which would allow for more southerly flow. With this in mind, diurnal convection will continue each day, though coverage and intensity should be a lot lower with maybe an isolated strong storm or two possible. By Wednesday, models start to diverge with the GFS showing a low pressure developing in the Gulf and moving towards Alabama. Confidence is low at this time as ECMWF doesn`t show the same level of organization, but does clue into increased rain over the area at the end of next week. Would need to consider the strength of the high and if that low can push into the southeast US. There is a weak upper level trough moving into areas around the Ohio Valley, but the past several model runs have been weakening this feature and showing an influence more in northerly areas. Despite all this, coverage could become more scattered to widespread, especially in areas of the southern half of the state beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the end of the work week. Temperatures will increase through Tuesday, with almost the whole area reaching the triple digits by Tuesday afternoon. Hot temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday, and if the low pressure and increased rain (and cloud cover) holds through Thursday, the temperatures should lower slightly with highs in the low to mid 90s. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025 Diurnal convection is expected today. Confidence is low on coverage and timing, so included VCSH for now in each TAF. Coverage should be more isolated, with a lower chance for any convection to become scattered, with greater coverage in north and west Alabama this afternoon. Will amend each site once any cells develop. Tonight, there may be enough low level moisture for fog development, especially in areas that receive rain late tonight. Included mention of MVFR visibilities and ceilings for now, through lower ceilings and vis may be possible. Tomorrow by mid morning, convection should begin developing with coverage remaining isolated. Left mention of VCSH out of TAF for now with the expectation of limited coverage. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future. Rain chances will remain isolated through the weekend and into next week, increasing by mid week. 20 foot winds should remain less than 8 mph from the west through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 92 69 94 70 / 30 20 40 10 Anniston 91 71 92 72 / 30 10 30 0 Birmingham 93 72 93 73 / 30 20 30 10 Tuscaloosa 93 73 94 74 / 30 20 30 10 Calera 91 73 92 73 / 20 20 30 0 Auburn 91 74 93 74 / 20 10 20 0 Montgomery 93 74 94 74 / 20 10 30 10 Troy 93 72 94 73 / 30 10 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24