054 FXUS64 KBMX 141125 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 625 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 253 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025 Some passing high clouds this morning but otherwise a warm, clear day is in store for Central Alabama. Highs will be in the 80s, with a gusty southwest wind, as the region warms up in advance of a cold front. As the front pushes southward into Central Alabama by tonight into early Tuesday morning, the best chance for rain will come in areas north of Birmingham. Some latest high-res guidance suggests the potential for precipitation to advance further southward to the I-20 corridor early Tuesday. However, this is less certain. There will be a chance for thunderstorms, with the best chance being late Monday across the northwestern counties. Tuesday will be cooler behind the front, with highs in the 70s across much of the region. Gusty northwest winds behind the front combined with a drier airmass working in should lower dewpoints down into the 20s to low 30s in many areas, which could cause fire weather concerns. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 253 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025 Comfortable and mild conditions will continue on Wednesday as high pressure builds over the area. Thereafter, a warming trend will develop for several days as the subtropical ridge gradually shifts to the east of the area where it will remain the dominant feature into next week resulting in well above average temperatures. Models are now indicating a cold front over the weekend will stall well north of the forecast area, so conditions look to remain rain-free and hot with highs in the mid to upper 80s each day. The ridge may briefly be shoved to the side early next week as a cutoff low over the Four Corners begins to eject across the Central Plains, potentially bringing some rain to Central Alabama. But until then, it looks like a warm and dry end to the week. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025 VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours, with only passing clouds. A chance for showers across northern Central Alabama from 06z to 12z Tuesday. However, confidence is too low to mention in TAF at this time. Southwesterly surface winds will increase this afternoon to 10-20 kts ahead of a cold front. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are expected for the next several days, so fire weather conditions will be watched closely. A cold front will bring a small chance of showers to our northern areas tonight, then the airmass dries out quite a bit on Tuesday with min RHs at or just below 25% during the afternoon. 20ft winds shift from southwest to northwest behind the front on Tuesday, ranging from 8 to 10 mph with gusts up to 15 to 20 mph. Winds will decrease on Wednesday as high pressure builds over the area, but RH values will fall to near critical thresholds once again during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 55 70 38 / 0 30 0 0 Anniston 83 55 70 40 / 0 10 0 0 Birmingham 85 58 72 43 / 0 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 86 58 74 42 / 0 10 0 0 Calera 83 58 72 43 / 0 10 0 0 Auburn 83 58 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 84 58 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 84 57 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....86/Martin AVIATION...12