272
FXUS64 KBMX 090011
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
711 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2024

Crystal clear skies are overhead across much of the region, except
for a little haze showing up across southeastern Alabama
northeastward into Georgia and the Carolinas. The haze is a result
of western CONUS wildfire smoke that has been transported
southeastward within the northwesterly flow aloft. Credit our
colleagues over in Peachtree City for pointing that out on
visible satellite! Otherwise, a dry northerly flow will continue
over Central Alabama today with lower humidity. Cooler
temperatures in the upper 70s will be realized across the far
northern counties this afternoon, while southeast locations such
as Troy and Eufaula heat up once again into the mid 80s with a tad
higher humidity. As Milton begins to approach the western Florida
coast, a more easterly flow will develop across Georgia and
southeastern Alabama over the next 24 hours. With a drier more
northerly flow across northern and western counties overnight,
locations such as Hamilton and Gadsden are still expected to drop
down into the lower 50s with good radiational cooling and calm
winds. With a little more low-level moisture, Troy and Eufaula
will drop into the lower 60s by daybreak on Wednesday.

As Milton nears the western Florida coastline Wednesday
afternoon, the only effects that we`ll see will be a slight
increase in gradient winds for folks along and southeast of the
I-85 corridor. Winds are expected to prevail around 10 to 15mph
with a few gusts up to 20mph not out of the question from the
northeast. We`ll see upper level heights slightly increasing
during the day on Wednesday as the ridge over the Four Corners
broadens eastward just a bit. As a result, highs will be a little
warmer, especially across western counties topping out in the mid
80s. Lower 80s are expected elsewhere.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2024

By Thursday morning, Hurricane Milton will be centered near the east
coast of Florida. A large ridge will be situated over the Central
CONUS with northwesterly mid-level flow across Central Alabama and
an exceptionally widespread zone of dry air covering much of the
CONUS. An embedded shortwave will pass across the forecast area on
Friday, and on Sunday a dry cold front will move into the region as
Milton continues tracking further out into the Atlantic.

The weather pattern through the weekend will be largely dominated by
the dry air and subsidence associated with the ridge, so despite
the shortwave on Friday and a frontal passage on Sunday, the
forecast remains dry. Temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s
each day with low afternoon humidity, so it should feel quite nice
outside. Northeasterly surface flow will support cool mornings
with some communities seeing lows in the 40s on Saturday. By
Monday, the ridge will begin to be suppressed by a large upper-
level trough which will rotate southeastward across the Great
Lakes and Midwest regions, and an even cooler airmass will move
across Central Alabama behind the aforementioned frontal passage
by Monday night.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2024

VFR TAFs are expected through the 24 hour forecast on
dry/subsidence side of Milton. Light and variable winds are
expected for tonight with NE-ENE winds during the afternoon with
mixing.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and fair weather conditions will prevail for at least the next
seven days. We can expect dry north to northeast winds of 6 to 10
mph for the next few days as Hurricane Milton passes by well to
our southeast. RH values this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon
should range from 35 to 50 percent. A drop in dewpoints on
Thursday will push RH values into the 30 to 35 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     53  82  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    54  83  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  57  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  56  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      58  85  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      60  82  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  62  86  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        61  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....86/Martin
AVIATION...08