472
FXUS64 KBMX 180610
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1210 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025

 - Periods of showers are expected throughout today across central
   Alabama with a few thunderstorms afternoon into evening.

 - A gradual warming trend will commence this weekend with above-
   normal temperatures likely heading into Christmas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Thursday)
Issued at 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025

Today:

A shortwave moving across the northern Gulf will result in
isentropic lift atop the cool air mass at the surface. This will
cause scattered showers across central Alabama this morning, with a
potentially more concentrated batch of activity just to our
southeast, closer to the mid-level speed max.

Ascent from an approaching deep trough over the central U.S., and
its front, will result in additional spells of showers this
afternoon and evening. Guidance continues to show a small swath of
weak MUCAPE just ahead of the front, which could support a few
thunderstorms as it moves across afternoon into evening. Forecast
soundings show a veered/sheared wind profile, though characteristics
of the instability profile are meager, especially at the low levels,
along with somewhat misaligned dynamics; thus, severe weather is not
anticipated with this system.

Friday & the weekend:

Fair weather is forecast on Friday and Saturday, initially cooler on
Friday but trending milder on Saturday.

A mid-level impulse scooting across the Tennessee Valley region
should cause a period of increased cloudiness with a few light
showers overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Next week:

Broad ridging from Mexico to the Gulf is forecast to amplify with
its axis shifting eastward. This pattern of positive height
anomalies will cause above-normal temperatures for much of the
CONUS. For central Alabama, probabilities are high for temperatures
in the mid 60s and medium for temperatures in the low 70s heading
into Christmas, perhaps past it by a few days, too.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025

VFR conditions are in place as of 06z Thursday. IFR ceilings are
forecast to envelop all central Alabama terminals around 15z-18z,
followed by a medium to high chance of LIFR ceilings afternoon into
evening. Periods of showers will occur throughout today with a few
thunderstorms afternoon into evening. Winds will be from the
southeast this morning, south this afternoon, and then northwest by
late evening as a front arrives.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs are forecast to remain above, and winds below, critical
thresholds over the coming days. Of the next few days, the lowest
afternoon RHs should occur on Saturday and Monday across the east
half of central Alabama, generally in the lower 30s.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today/Thursday with
periodic slight-chance opportunities for parts of the region next
week, otherwise fair.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     40  61  34  50 /  30  90  80   0
Anniston    44  62  37  52 /  30  90  80   0
Birmingham  46  62  37  50 /  40  90  80   0
Tuscaloosa  47  64  37  53 /  50  90  80   0
Calera      45  64  36  54 /  50  90  80   0
Auburn      48  61  43  55 /  20  90  70   0
Montgomery  46  64  42  56 /  50  90  60   0
Troy        47  64  44  56 /  40 100  60   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite