818 FXUS64 KBMX 102338 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 638 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025 - Level 1 and level 2 out of 5 risks for severe storms are outlooked for Central Alabama from through 1 am Friday morning. Large hail to half dollar size and damaging winds up to 60 mph will be possible with this activity. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 145 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025 This afternoon. Broad troughing is positioned over much of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley Regions while ridging was over much of Mexico and the Desert Southwest. A potent shortwave was identified by water vapor imagery over Southeast Missouri and was moving southeast toward Middle Tennessee. Toward the surface, low pressure was analyzed across Southeast Minnesota with an occluded front extending south to a Triple Point positioned just Northwest of St. Louis, MO with a warm front extending east just north of the Ohio River and a cold front stretching southwest across Oklahoma into Northern Texas. Expect partly cloudy skies this afternoon with an increasing chance for thunderstorm activity initially across the northwest counties toward mid afternoon, then increasing further and expanding southeast with time through late afternoon out ahead of the approaching mid-level disturbance. Some storms may be severe with large hail up to half dollar size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the higher terrain east to the lower 80s southwest and far west. Winds will be from the west to southwest at 7-14 mph. Tonight. The potent disturbance embedded in the troughing to our north will continue to dive southeast, moving over the Tennessee Valley Region this evening and into the overnight hours while a surface cold front arrives from the northwest. Steep lapse rates due to the cold pocket aloft will help force convective development through the evening that will push southeast with time through the overnight hours. Some storms may be severe with large hail up to half dollar size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s far north to the lower 50s south. Winds will initially be from the west, becoming northwest behind the activity with speeds from 5-10 mph. Friday. Broad troughing will remain over the forecast area into the day on Friday as a secondary disturbance dives southeast around the base of the trough from the Mid-South Region toward the Central Gulf Coast. The surface cold front will move southeast of the area by the late morning hours. There will be potential for some showers and storms developing and pushing southward into the area from the north and northeast through the day, but instability values appear to be lower than today, resulting in storm intensities lower than this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s far north to the lower 70s south. Winds will be from the northwest at 8-16 mph. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025 Behind the front, look for surface ridging to build in across ERN Conus for the weekend. With light/near calm winds expected for Saturday night into early Sunday, we could see a little patchy frost in our far NRN and NE counties toward sunrise. By Monday, the ridge center will shift SE toward FL and a SW low level flow. Look for warmer temperature readings for Monday (generally lower to mid 80s) in response. Another reinforcing cold front will move through late Monday and will help to cool things down for lows again and get rid of the 80s for a few days (rest of extended). No precip is anticipated with the Monday front. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 139 AM CDT THU APR 10 2025 Following the departure of the upper-level trough, cooler conditions will develop on Saturday as deep north to northwest flow brings down a northern airmass. Temperatures on Saturday will warm into the 60s with sunny skies. Will have to watch for frost development Sunday morning, especially in the cooler valley areas across the north where temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s. Went on the cooler side of forecast guidance given northeasterly surface flow and clear skies. High pressure and low to mid-level ridging will continue to dominate the pattern through the early part of next week in which temperatures warm back into the 80s on Monday as flow shifts back to the west-southwest. An upper-level trough will move across the Upper Midwest towards the Great Lakes on Monday night into Tuesday. It looks like the associated cold front will quickly pass through the area during the day on Tuesday, but forcing will be far removed to our north and moisture appears limited, so did not add PoPs into the forecast for now, but may introduce some low PoPs in later forecast updates. That frontal passage looks to bring some cooler, drier air back to the region by the middle of next week. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025 TAFs are currently VFR. Areas of TSRAs ahead of a front will sag SWD and move SE across the C AL TAF sites this evening. Some gusty winds will be possible with the storms. Have TEMPOs in for all but MGM from 01-04z. It will take a little longer for storms to make it to MGM, so I held off the TEMPO there until 04-07z. Most of the cigs with these storms are VFR as well. Will forgo non-VFR cigs for now. Winds will shift to the NW behind the storms with the frontal passage. Some wrap around showers will be possible Fri afternoon. Have a PROB30 mention for all NRN sites (all but MGM). 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to Central Alabama late this afternoon through tonight. Additional light rain will slide through on Friday afternoon behind the front. However, amounts will be light. By the weekend, no additional wetting rain is in the forecast. Winds and relative humidities are expected to remain outside of critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 45 65 39 64 / 70 30 30 0 Anniston 46 65 40 65 / 70 30 30 0 Birmingham 49 65 43 64 / 60 30 30 0 Tuscaloosa 50 69 44 68 / 60 30 30 0 Calera 49 66 44 66 / 70 30 30 0 Auburn 50 68 45 66 / 70 20 30 0 Montgomery 52 71 45 67 / 70 10 20 0 Troy 52 72 46 67 / 60 10 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....08/86/Martin AVIATION...08