331
FXUS64 KMOB 192333
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
533 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

  - There is a high risk of life threatening rip currents across
    all area beaches through this afternoon.

  - Patchy fog is possible Saturday night into early Sunday
    morning.

  - Well above normal temperatures are expected for all of next
    week, including Christmas Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

A brief shot of colder and drier air has moved into the area in
the wake of an early morning cold front. High pressure will move
over the region tonight, allowing winds to become light to calm.
This results in lows dropping into the low to mid 30s across the
area. This will be a very short lived cold snap as the surface
high will quickly shift well east of the area on Saturday allowing
for an onshore flow and moderating temperatures. A subtle
shortwave embedded in the fast moving zonal flow aloft along with
another front trying to move in from the north will bring a small
chance of showers to southeast MS/southwest AL Sunday into early
Monday morning.

Model guidance is in very strong agreement that an atypically
strong upper level ridge will build in from the west on Tuesday
and will be centered over the northern Gulf Coast by Christmas Eve
and Christmas Day. In fact, ensemble guidance indicates the
strength of this upper high is in the top 1-2% of the climate
database for this time of year. This will lead to a very mild
Christmas holiday with highs easily rising into the low to mid
70s. Given how strong this ridge is, high temps a bit warmer into
the mid to upper 70s is possible. Could record highs be in
jeopardy? We can`t rule it out, but the 925mb/850mb temps are
currently modeled to be just a bit lower than those years.
Something to keep an eye on. Lows will generally be in the upper
40s to mid 50s.

Christmas Day Record Highs:
Mobile - 80 (2016)
Pensacola - 78 (2023/1974/1955)

34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday afternoon. Light
northeasterly winds will shift southeasterly to southerly by
Saturday afternoon. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Strong offshore flow will continue to diminish this afternoon into
tonight. The Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf waters was allowed
to expire at noon. Winds transition to the east and southeast over
the weekend through the middle of the next week. While winds will
be generally light, there will be occasional periods of slightly
stronger winds. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      62  37  69  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   64  41  66  56 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      64  44  65  54 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   59  32  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  58  33  68  49 /   0   0   0  10
Camden      56  31  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   62  31  66  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$