874
FXUS64 KMOB 091158
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
658 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Through Tuesday Night...
You can get a sense of where the stalled surface boundary was last
night based on the stretch of Flood Warnings, Flood Advisories,
and Special Weather Statements south of U.S. Highway 84 to the
I-10 corridor. This convective activity has largely been waning
slightly as we head into the early morning hours, but we cannot
let our guard down as occasional pulse-type storms could result in
localized gusty winds and frequent lightning throughout the
morning. In addition, the threat of flooding remains, especially
in areas that were hit hard last night. But we are now done yet as
we anticipate multiple waves of storms to pass across our warning
area from west to east over the next 36 hours, followed by a
slight "reprieve" in convective activity Tuesday night as storms
become more focused over the Gulf.
Similar to yesterday, we are expecting an afternoon environment
with significant MLCAPE values around 2,000 to 2,800j/kg. Deep
layer shear values again however should only be in the 30 to 35
knot range. Nonetheless, SPC has our entire area in a Slight Risk
of severe weather through tonight, and a few of the stronger
storms may exhibit bowing segments with gusty winds to 50 mph and
hail up to one inch in diameter. Frequent lightning and the threat
of flooding remains. The Rip Current risk has been elevated to
High for all beaches, and has also been extended in time through
Tuesday afternoon due to very persistent 15-20 knot southwesterly
winds over the Gulf.
High temperatures today and Tuesday will range from 85 to 90
degrees. Low temperatures tonight should be between 67 to 72
degrees inland, with middle 70s along the coast. /22
Wednesday Through Sunday...
A unsettled summer pattern will continue through the middle of
this week and into the weekend. Broad southwesterly flow will
develop across the area by midweek as upper ridging builds over
the western Atlantic and a upper level cutoff low slowly lifts
north from south Texas. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be
setup across the area from west to east on Wednesday and
Thursday. This boundary will likely continue to provide a focus
for low level convergence and heavy rainfall. Given the relatively
weak flow aloft and lack of true focused upper level forcing
mechanism, storms will likely be driven by the diurnal cycle with
a focus right along this boundary. Expect storms to develop along
this zone and any remnant outflow/seabreeze boundaries during the
afternoon. By the weekend, the surface boundary will have mixed
out leading to a more traditional summertime pattern with storms
developing along the advancing seabreeze and remnant boundaries.
Storms will likely be a little more widespread than a typical
summer day as some upper shortwave troughs will likely progress
through the southwesterly flow. PWATS will be in the 1.5 to 2 inch
range each day allowing for efficient rain processes with any
storms. While a more focused heavy rainfall event doesn`t look
likely, continued rounds of rain throughout the week could result
in localized flash flooding. Temperatures will continue to be on
the warm side with highs in the 90s and with all the moisture, do
not expect any relief from the mugginess this week. BB/8
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Overall the coverage of thunderstorms will decrease this morning,
before returning around mid-afternoon as a line of storms moves
from west to east across our area through the evening hours. Gusty
winds to 45 knots and small hail will also be possible with these
storms, along with localized IFR to LIFR visbys and MVFR ceilings.
Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20
knots will occur throughout the day. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Small craft operators heading out to South Mobile Bay, the
Mississippi Sound, and the Gulf Waters should exercise caution
today and tonight due to moderate southwesterly winds of 15-20
knots. Winds will decrease on Tuesday, followed by a light onshore
flow through the remainder of the week. An increase in coverage
of showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday through Friday.
The potential of waterspouts exists during morning activity near
the coast. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 90 71 87 71 89 72 90 74 / 70 70 80 50 80 20 70 20
Pensacola 89 74 87 75 88 76 87 76 / 60 70 90 60 80 30 70 30
Destin 89 77 88 77 88 78 90 79 / 60 80 90 60 80 40 70 40
Evergreen 90 69 88 68 90 69 92 71 / 80 80 80 30 80 20 70 20
Waynesboro 88 68 87 66 90 69 91 70 / 90 70 70 20 60 20 70 20
Camden 87 68 86 66 88 68 89 70 / 90 80 60 20 60 20 60 20
Crestview 90 71 89 70 90 70 92 71 / 80 80 90 40 90 20 70 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob