707 FXUS64 KBMX 170150 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 850 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 840 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025 For the evening update, temperature trends are on track so no changes are expected. We did make some changes to lower the afternoon dewpoints for Thursday and Friday, therefore lowering the RH values. 16 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 136 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025 Tonight. The longwave trough will move further offshore of the Northeast Coast tonight while the high-amplitude longwave ridging builds closer to the area, extending from over Northeast Mexico northward to over the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi River Valley Regions. Elongated surface high pressure will remain across the area overnight as it extends from Northern Michigan southward to across the Western Florida Panhandle. Look for clear skies overnight with light northeast winds from near calm up to 3 mph. Low temperatures will range from the lower 40s northeast to the mid 40s south and west. Thursday. High amplitude longwave ridging will continue to build closer from the west, extending from over the Northwest Gulf northward to over much of the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will migrate further eastward through the day, extending from across the Mid- Atlantic Region southwest to across the Northern Florida Peninsula. Expect Mostly sunny skies on Thursday with a southeast wind developing through the day from 5-10 mph. The warming trend will continue across the area with highs ranging from the mid 70s in the higher elevations east to readings in the lower 80s across the southwest third of the forecast area. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025 Seasonably warm temperatures are forecast for a chunk of the latter portion of the 7-day forecast. Models continue to differ regarding the general weather pattern from Sunday afternoon onward, which is leading to an unclear scenario involving the timing, progression, and breadth of shower and thunderstorm activity over the multi-day period. The forecast continues to call for increased cloudiness over the weekend with the first opportunity for raindrops, for part of the area, holding off until Sunday afternoon or evening per ensembles. Through the rest of the week, a series of shortwave troughs should offer spells of showers and thunderstorms, with the timing and characteristic of each wave in a TBD status. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025 VFR conditions through the period. Light winds. A few passing clouds at times. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Some high clouds will move over the area on Thursday with a developing southeast wind from 5-10 mph. RH minimums will dip to near 20-30% across across the area. For Friday, expect RH values of 25-35 percent with winds increasing from the south at 6-12 mph. Dry conditions are forecast through at least late Sunday evening across the forecast area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 44 79 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 46 79 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 50 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 49 81 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 49 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 51 78 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 49 81 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 48 81 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...16