185 FXUS64 KBMX 121058 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 558 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025 Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge in place across the southeast and an upper trough digging south towards the Texas coast. At the surface, moisture is on the rise with PWATs now in the 1.8-2" range according to the latest TPW imagery. The KBMX 00z sounding reported a PWAT of 1.46". Ridging aloft will gradually weaken and shift east through the day as the trough to our west lifts to the northeast. Several H5 shortwaves eject out ahead of the trough but will likely remain too far north of us to provide much of an impact. With that said, guidance suggests a few streams of H85-H7 energy will pass through the region which will help enhance any diurnally driven convection over the next couple of days. With little shear, would expect any storms to be relatively short-lived. Brief periods of heavy rainfall are likely with any passing shower or storm as forecast soundings show a fairly saturated profile as this tropical moisture moves in. Greatest chances for stronger storms looks to be Friday afternoon as a pocket of enhanced H5 vorticity moves towards the TN Valley. Latest CAMS are starting to hint at a line of storms moving across MS during the day on Friday. At this point, not too confident on how far east this activity stays together as the best upper support will be north and west of us. We will need to closely monitor the trends. Otherwise, it will be warm and muggy over the next several days. High today and tomorrow settle into the mid to upper 80s with heat indices in the low to mid 90s. 95/Castillo && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025 The unsettled and tropical weather pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend as diurnally-driven numerous to widespread showers and storms remain in the forecast. Central Alabama will remain wedged in between the weakening mid-level closed low/trough to our northwest and 593 decameter ridge just off the Florida Atlantic coast. Southwesterly flow will dominate over most of the atmospheric profile, with plenty of synoptic lift and divergence aloft as the mid-level trough axis slowly swings eastward across the Deep South. Warm air and moisture advection is advertised to keep stronger storms limited as lapse rates aloft become moist- adiabatic and PWATs rise above 2 inches. As mentioned yesterday, for folks who have outdoor activities planned over the weekend you need to make preparations for at least a passing shower or storm that will put a damper on things, but for the most part a washout is not anticipated despite high overall PoPs during the afternoon. With the high moisture content in the atmosphere, showers and storms will be very efficient rainfall producers and could lead to localized flooding within urban areas and poor drainage locations. Elevated rain and storm chances especially during the afternoon hours remain in the forecast through Tuesday of next week, as we remain stuck between the ridge to the southeast and 500mb weakness to the northwest. By the end of the week, guidance trends are now clearly indicating a very high likelihood of hot days ahead as we go into mid-June. Upper level ridging is advertised to greatly increase by Wednesday and Thursday of next week, sending highs well into the 90s over consecutive days. Although the exact location the building 500mb ridge remains in question across the southern CONUS by late next week, the overall signal continues to point toward a hot pattern with heat indices rising between 100 and 105 degrees each afternoon. Diurnally-driven scattered to perhaps numerous summertime convective showers and storms would also be in the forecast each day. 56/GDG && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025 MVFR conditions are just now beginning to settle in. Not expecting this low level stratus to be around too long with VFR returning by 14-15Z. Transitioned the PROB30 groups for afternoon convection to TEMPOs for TSRA from 20-00Z. Brief heavy rainfall can be expected with any passing shower or storm. Winds generally remain less than 10 knots through this TAF cycle. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... A warm and very moist airmass will remain in place through the end of this week. MinRH values are forecast to remain above 60 percent each afternoon as a tropical air mass moves northward over the Deep South with high rain chances. 20 ft winds from the south will be very light, generally less than 5 mph through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 68 88 70 / 60 40 70 40 Anniston 86 70 86 71 / 60 40 70 40 Birmingham 87 71 88 72 / 50 40 70 30 Tuscaloosa 88 71 88 72 / 50 40 80 30 Calera 87 71 86 72 / 50 40 70 30 Auburn 86 70 85 71 / 70 40 70 30 Montgomery 88 71 88 72 / 60 30 80 20 Troy 88 69 88 71 / 70 40 80 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...95/Castillo