061 FXUS64 KBMX 271208 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 708 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 217 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025 This AM, satellite is indicating some cirrus clouds flowing out of convection over AR and into AL. Otherwise, isolated areas of stratus and patchy fog are present, but it`s not anything near last night. There is a weak surface boundary across the midsection of C AL. It should progress further SWD this morning. This will allow for a few mid/upper 50s this AM in the NRN counties. Otherwise, look for a few isolated showers/tstorms this afternoon and again on Monday afternoon in conjunction with daytime heating and weak disturbances in the upper NW flow. With overall weak flow in the lower levels, winds should be light/variable today, but become SE 5-10kts on Monday in response to an ERN Conus surface ridge N of C AL centered from the Great Lakes into OH pushing EWD toward the coast. 08 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 413 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025 We haven`t seen many changes in terms of the long-range forecast through the upcoming week, as very warm above normal temperatures and mostly rain-free conditions will prevail through Thursday. However, Don`t put that jacket away for the summer just yet - as a pattern change will usher in a wave of much cooler and drier air by Saturday and Sunday. Ridging aloft will be strongest Tuesday through Wednesday as warm air advection at the surface leads to mild, almost muggy overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. Very warm if not downright hot high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees remain on track during the afternoon both days. A stray shower won`t be out of the question Wednesday afternoon due to isentropic lift, but a vast majority of the CWA will remain hot and dry. A shortwave ejecting eastward from the Desert Southwest along with the upper ridge breaking down over the Southeast will allow for our next chance of significant rainfall Thursday through Friday. Although areas to our west over the ArkLaTex and mid Mississippi Valley may end up having a better chance for severe storms Wednesday night through Thursday, forecast guidance solutions are differing in the overall 500mb evolution. The GFS breaks the upper ridge down faster with a more potent shortwave, while the ECMWF holds on to a stronger ridge and the shortwave is displaced more to the north and west of the area. Regardless of the severe chances, scattered to numerous showers and storms look to be in the cards Thursday through Friday. Convection will be diurnally- driven in nature and highest coverage is currently forecast to exist during the peak heating of the afternoon. A strong cold front for late April standards will be poised to move across the Deep South from northwest to southeast Saturday morning. A late-season, modified Continental Polar airmass is expected to advect southward over the CWA, and long-range guidance is advertising low temperatures in the low to mid 50s both on Saturday and Sunday morning. A few spots in the far northeast valley locations will probably drop into the upper 40s if these forecast trends hold up. Dry northerly surface flow would lead to very pleasant early May conditions as highs reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday and Sunday. 56/GDG && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 656 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025 There has been some patchy fog around over the past few hours, but conditions are rapidly improving. Left in a short MVFR tempo at ASN/ANB. I have IFR to MVFR conditions for a couple of hours at TCL/MGM. Otherwise, winds should be rather light/variable today thanks to a large surface ridge over E Conus. There are low SHRA/TSRA chances for late this afternoon, but it is too low to mention in TAFs ATTM. Vsby sensor is out at EET. Included an AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND until sensor is restored. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... An overall warm and mostly rain-free pattern is expected to set up over Central Alabama through much of the upcoming week. MinRH values are expected to drop into the lower 40s to lower 50s range this afternoon with slightly higher values by Monday. 20ft winds will remain light between 5 and 10mph from the northwest today then become southeasterly by Monday. Looking ahead toward the upcoming week, very warm and dry conditions are expected to materialize as RH values drop into the low to mid 30s Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. 20ft winds are also expected to increase during this time, around 10mph from the southwest on Wednesday with gusts approaching 20mph by Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 82 59 82 61 / 10 10 20 0 Anniston 82 60 82 63 / 10 10 20 0 Birmingham 83 64 84 66 / 10 10 20 0 Tuscaloosa 84 64 87 66 / 10 0 20 0 Calera 84 64 84 65 / 20 10 20 0 Auburn 84 64 82 64 / 20 20 20 0 Montgomery 87 65 85 65 / 20 10 20 0 Troy 87 64 85 64 / 20 10 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....56/GDG AVIATION...08