078
FXUS64 KBMX 241057
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
457 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2024

This AM, the satellite picture is mostly clear across C AL. There
are clouds only in the far SE and far NW scraping the area. A surface
ridge is present stretching from AL to the Carolinas and into VA.
Weak ridging will be in place over C AL with overall light winds. We
will see a slow moderating of our airmass with temperatures sneaking
upward through the short term. However, the good news is that the
latest data is showing this return of moisture is a tad slower than
yesterday`s guidance. This means that we should not have to worry
about rain for tonight or most of Christmas Day. So although it will
be chilly tonight, Santa won`t need an umbrella over C AL. Most of
the rain chances will hold off until the extended. I only have a
late Wed. afternoon isolated shower mention in the Far SW.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2024

We will begin to see the effects of the progressive pattern
Wednesday night as a mid-level shortwave passes across the area.
The wedge of high pressure will be in place along the Mid-Atlantic
states extending southwest into portions of Central Alabama
resulting in a stubborn layer of dry air in the lower levels. It
appears that rainfall associated with this shortwave will be quite
limited and mostly confined to the southwestern portions of the
area where amounts will be less than 0.10".

Cloudy conditions and perhaps periods of drizzle will continue
through the day on Thursday as a deeper and more organized trough
progresses across the Southern Plains. This second trough will once
again encounter the stubborn ridge over the East Coast and will
begin to take a more northeasterly trajectory during the day on
Friday, so as a cold front moves through the Lower MS River Valley,
precip along the front looks to decrease in coverage with the front
ultimately stalling near the Mississippi River. Periods of rain
will be focused across our northwest Friday afternoon with
temperatures warming into the 60s.

A third spoke in the upper-level trough will generate a surface low
over the Central Plains. There are some model differences in this
longer range portion of the forecast, but the surface low and
associated mid to upper-level trough will break down the wedge of
high pressure over the area, leading to deeper moisture and higher
coverage of rainfall and some thunderstorms across Central Alabama
on Saturday as the aforementioned stalled front becomes
reinvigorated and begins to push through the area with the low
moving towards the Ohio Valley. This also looks to be the warmest
day of the week with southerly flow ahead of the system leading
to highs in the lower 70s across our south. Models are still
indicating the potential for destabilization during the afternoon
on Saturday, but there`s about a 6 to 12 hour difference in the
fropa timing, so any perceivable risk of strong to severe storms
is yet to be determined. The front should move through the area on
Sunday, and although a drier and more zonal flow pattern may try
to develop behind the front, another deepening trough could bring
a reinforcing cold front and rain to the area on Tuesday if it
tracks far enough south.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2024

A VFR TAF forecast is expected for the next 24 hours for Santa and
any elves with minimal clouds expected, light/variable winds, and
unrestricted vsbys under the influence of surface ridging over
portions of the SE US.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values drop into the 30 to 35 percent range this afternoon with
light winds generally less than 5 mph. 20ft winds increase to
around 5 to 7 mph from the southeast on Christmas Day with a
slight increase in moisture across the west. Northeast portions
of Central Alabama will remain drier with RH values in the 35 to
40 percent range. Some light showers may move into southwestern
portions of the area Wednesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  30  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    58  32  62  41 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  57  36  60  45 /   0   0   0  20
Tuscaloosa  60  36  63  46 /   0   0  10  20
Calera      59  36  62  44 /   0   0  10  20
Auburn      60  36  61  43 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  60  34  63  45 /   0   0  10  30
Troy        60  34  63  45 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....86/Martin
AVIATION...08