844 FXUS64 KBMX 081653 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1153 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 111 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025 Weak 500 mb ridging, marked by anticyclonically-curved flow, will extended westward across Alabama today, while a trough axis spans the Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm activity this afternoon is expected to be relatively isolated in nature due to the lingering weak ridging. However, the approaching upper-level trough and weak height falls may support slightly greater coverage across our northwestern counties. As 500 mb height falls continue on Wednesday, rain chances should notably increase on Wednesday, particularly north of I-20, where numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. A deficit in PWAT values south of I-20, associated with a decaying weak 500 mb ridge, should result in somewhat lower coverage of afternoon convection. 87/Grantham && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 111 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025 Gradual weak height falls will continue into Thursday as a trough axis moves into our forecast area. This will support widespread afternoon thunderstorms, and a similar scenario is expected for Friday. There are some signs of very weak 500 mb ridging making a comeback for Saturday through Monday, but rain chances could remain elevated as deep moisture lingers across the region. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expanding across the region, with all terminals carrying PROB30s for TSRA through the afternoon. Terminals are expected to remain VFR, with some reduced VIS possible tonight if rain were to fall. However, confidence was not high enough at this time to reduce categories past 09/00z. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... The moist airmass will remain in place for most of the next week, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected each day. MinRH values likely won`t drop below 60%, with Mixing Heights remaining variable due to the cloud cover. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 71 92 70 / 40 20 70 40 Anniston 92 72 90 71 / 30 20 60 40 Birmingham 92 73 91 72 / 40 20 60 40 Tuscaloosa 92 74 91 73 / 40 20 60 30 Calera 92 73 90 72 / 40 20 60 30 Auburn 91 73 90 72 / 30 20 50 30 Montgomery 93 74 93 73 / 30 20 50 30 Troy 92 72 92 72 / 30 20 50 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION.../44/