606 FXUS64 KBMX 101106 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 606 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025 GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery reveals low level stratus beginning to spread across the region. A mix of low ceilings and fog can be expected through the night. If the ceilings begin to back off, fog will be the main player overnight through sunrise. The 00Z HREF hints at a medium chance of vis less than 1 mile so we will monitor trends in case a Dense Fog Advisory is warranted through the night. We will likely see a similar situation tonight into Wednesday morning. Taking a look at water vapor imagery, we can see the stout upper trough peeling off to the northeast with a few clusters of thunderstorms ongoing across the northern Gulf coast as well as back to our west. A weak frontal boundary can be seen moving south across the area at this time. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our northern areas this morning as it moves through. This feature will stall across the state over the next several days. Drier air will begin to work into the region behind the boundary as weak upper ridging builds in. This will allow for generally rain-free conditions for the northern half of the state. We will hold onto low to moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms to the south as moisture convergence is maximized along the boundary. A few strong storms are likely this afternoon as we heat up and CAPE values climb into the 2500-3000 J/kg range for our southern counties. However, shear looks to be lacking so would expect any storms to be relatively short-lived. Wednesday trends even drier as the boundary nudges even further south across the state. 95/Castillo && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025 The very short break from muggy, tropical air on Wednesday will quickly end by Thursday through the end of the week as very broad ridging sets up over the western Atlantic. In addition, a cut-off mid to upper level closed low will slowly move east-northeast into Arkansas by Saturday morning. Wedged in between, the Deep South will see deep, tropical moisture surging northward from the Gulf across the atmospheric profile. Rain chances will increase each day, with widespread afternoon showers and storms forecast both on Saturday and Sunday as the closed low/mid-level trough approaches from the northwest. Guidance is also indicating the potential of a 500mb vort max to move northward out of the Gulf on the western periphery of the upper ridge just off the Florida Atlantic coast. Very warm, humid, and stormy weather at times would be in the cards if current guidance trends hold up. Also, high temperatures could be impacted if widespread tropical showers and storms are able to develop both on Saturday and Sunday. For now, have kept the persistence forecast of highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees Friday through Sunday which would produce heat indices close to 100 degrees with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s during peak heating hours. High rain chances are currently advertised to continue into early next week as the 500mb shortwave trough axis to the northwest settles into the region and deep southerly to southwesterly moisture transport remains in place. 56/GDG && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025 A mixture of low level stratus and patchy fog has led to MVFR/IFR ceilings at times over the last several hours. VFR is expected to return over the next few hours and will continue through this evening. With that said, there is potential for showers and storms near MGM during the afternoon and evening hours which could lead to reduced vis/cigs at times. Maintained the PROB30 mention for now as the timing window remains fairly large. Another round of MVFR vis is likely tonight as low level moisture remains in place. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... The warm and fairly moist airmass will remain in place through the next several days. However, we will see slightly drier air by this afternoon and once again on Wednesday afternoon across the northern half of Central Alabama dropping RHs into the low and middle 40s. 20 ft winds will remain light from the west Tuesday through Wednesday, generally less than 10 mph. Moisture levels and rain chances are forecast to increase dramatically by Thursday through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 61 88 65 / 10 0 10 0 Anniston 85 64 88 67 / 20 0 10 10 Birmingham 85 65 88 68 / 10 0 10 0 Tuscaloosa 87 65 89 69 / 20 0 10 0 Calera 85 65 88 68 / 20 10 10 10 Auburn 83 67 86 70 / 40 20 30 10 Montgomery 86 67 88 69 / 40 20 30 10 Troy 87 67 88 69 / 40 20 50 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...95/Castillo