817
FXUS64 KBMX 011155
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
655 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025

This AM, our satellite loop is showing generally fair skies with
only some thin high clouds across C AL. At the surface, ridging is
present across the Deep South. In the upper levels, a large upper
low is present over Quebec with WNW flow into AL around it into AL.
Guidance continues to show a weak shortwave rotating around the main
upper low today that will give a very low prob of a shower or two
for us. However, it looks even weaker than yesterday. This may only
result in a little more cirrus than the current sky cover as the
lower levels are dry. Will forgo mention for today. This main trough
pushes out of E Conus and off the coast on Monday with very weak
upper flow across AL for tomorrow. This should result in mostly
sunny skies for Monday. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue
temperatures running 3-4 degrees higher both today and again on
Monday as our airmass moderates through the short term.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025

A ridge axis will be extending through the Eastern CONUS at the
start of the extended period. An upper-level cutoff low will be
centered over Florida with a dry and warm airmass over Central
Alabama. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s from Tuesday
through Friday with plenty of sun most days. On Thursday, the upper-
level low will drift north towards Central Alabama while a mid-level
trough and attendant cold front move across the Mississippi River.
It`s possible we see some brief showers on Thursday, but forecast
soundings look quite dry as the ridge axis becomes compressed over
the area between the other two synoptic features, so rain chances
look minimal. Friday looks to feature higher rain chances as the low-
amplitude trough continues to progress across the Ohio Valley and
dampen the ridge, allowing for the front to move into the area.
Models indicate a period of westerly flow redeveloping behind the
front by next weekend which could place us back into a pattern with
daily chances for thunderstorms.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025

VFR TAFs are generally expected for the next 24 hours. The
exception is some patchy dense river fog that has developed in a
few spots. This is affecting TCL conditions with dense fog/low
stratus possible there for a couple of hours with improving after
that. NNW flow is bringing particulates downstream AL resulting
in thin cirrus/smoke across the area. Otherwise, look for
light/variable to near calm winds overnight and light WRLY winds
with mixing for Sun afternoon. There is a small chance of a
diurnal late afternoon shower or two with a weak NW flow
disturbance, but the lower levels may be too dry. Will not include
a mention ATTM.

Note: Will continue to use AMD NOT SKED at KMGM due to comms issues.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A dry forecast is expected for the next few days as high pressure
builds over the area. Min RH will range from 40 to 50% today and
slightly lower tomorrow, but values are expected to remain well
above critical thresholds. 20ft winds will shift from the west to
east-northeasterly by tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     82  58  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    82  61  86  64 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  82  62  86  65 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  84  63  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      82  63  86  66 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      82  63  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  84  63  87  66 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        84  63  88  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....86/Martin
AVIATION...08