085 FXUS64 KBMX 130821 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 321 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025 Well the rain faucet has been opened up across the area and looks like it will remain open and full blast for the next couple of days. A weak trough will be in place over the area through the end of the week and will continue to provide a very good chance of rain and storms through Saturday. Overall this will not be a complete washout for everyone. Today`s activity looks to be mainly an afternoon and early evening event. The most likely areas to see activity early afternoon will be in the west, with the central and eastern areas late afternoon and early evening. Most of the convection should be ending in the east and central by Midnight at the latest. Patchy fog and low clouds will once again be in the plan for the overnight period, with as much moisture that in place. Saturday looks to be rinse and repeat forecast with activity starting in the west early afternoon and then developing further east and south through the peak heating of the day. Showers and storms will likely persist once again till around Midnight. Storms each day will be strong with a very high precipitation rate. So we will need to monitor for any stationary or barely moving storms for localized flooding in addition to gusty winds. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025 Diurnally-driven numerous to widespread showers and storms will remain in the forecast through early next week. Central Alabama will be wedged in between a persistent 500mb weakness to the northwest and 594 decameter ridge just off the Florida Atlantic coast. 700 to 500mb flow is expected to become westerly for a short period of time on Sunday as the mid to upper level trough axis swings eastward over the Deep South. Another mid to upper level disturbance is expected to dive southeastward into Arkansas by Sunday evening, providing additional synoptic lift for shower and storm development. The most widespread storm development initially may end up being over central and southern Mississippi Sunday afternoon, where the best available 1000-500mb moisture will reside. These storms will likely push eastward into Central Alabama by the late afternoon and evening hours, aided by outflow boundary interactions. High temperatures on Sunday should remain muted due to the more widespread clouds and convective activity in the mid to upper 80s, but conditions will remain very muggy due to the tropical air mass. We`ll continue to watch for heavy rainfall producers as PWATs remain well over 2 inches. Elevated rain and storm chances will continue through Tuesday of next week, as the mid-level weakness remains to our west/northwest. Just when we thought a clear indication of a much warmer pattern was starting to evolve by the end of next week, there are now signals of a stronger longwave trough developing over the midwest and into the Great Lakes by Thursday. Our hotter pattern could be delayed until a bit later into the month, as enough upper level support would send a cool front our direction by next Friday. We`ve got a ways to go to see if that solution verifies, but immediately following by next weekend the 500mb heat ridge is advertised to develop in the vicinity of the southern Plains States according to global guidance. 56/GDG && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025 Most of the showers and storms have dissipated for the night. Some patchy fog will be possible through sunrise along with MVFR/IFR cigs. An increase in cumulus after 16z with showers and storms in the west and south after 18z and then the northeast after 20z. Looks like rain ends by 00z at TCL and then 1 to 2 hours later for the rest of the sites. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values are forecast to remain above 50 percent for the next several days as very moist air mass moves northward over the Deep South. Daily rain chances will remain elevated as well. 20 ft winds from the south to southwest should remain less than 7 mph through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 68 85 68 / 60 40 90 60 Anniston 86 71 85 70 / 60 40 80 50 Birmingham 88 71 85 70 / 70 40 90 60 Tuscaloosa 87 72 86 71 / 80 40 90 50 Calera 86 71 84 71 / 60 40 80 50 Auburn 86 72 86 71 / 60 30 80 40 Montgomery 89 72 89 71 / 70 30 80 40 Troy 89 71 89 71 / 70 30 80 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....56/GDG AVIATION...16