817 FXUS64 KBMX 011155 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 655 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 227 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025 This AM, our satellite loop is showing generally fair skies with only some thin high clouds across C AL. At the surface, ridging is present across the Deep South. In the upper levels, a large upper low is present over Quebec with WNW flow into AL around it into AL. Guidance continues to show a weak shortwave rotating around the main upper low today that will give a very low prob of a shower or two for us. However, it looks even weaker than yesterday. This may only result in a little more cirrus than the current sky cover as the lower levels are dry. Will forgo mention for today. This main trough pushes out of E Conus and off the coast on Monday with very weak upper flow across AL for tomorrow. This should result in mostly sunny skies for Monday. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue temperatures running 3-4 degrees higher both today and again on Monday as our airmass moderates through the short term. 08 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 227 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025 A ridge axis will be extending through the Eastern CONUS at the start of the extended period. An upper-level cutoff low will be centered over Florida with a dry and warm airmass over Central Alabama. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s from Tuesday through Friday with plenty of sun most days. On Thursday, the upper- level low will drift north towards Central Alabama while a mid-level trough and attendant cold front move across the Mississippi River. It`s possible we see some brief showers on Thursday, but forecast soundings look quite dry as the ridge axis becomes compressed over the area between the other two synoptic features, so rain chances look minimal. Friday looks to feature higher rain chances as the low- amplitude trough continues to progress across the Ohio Valley and dampen the ridge, allowing for the front to move into the area. Models indicate a period of westerly flow redeveloping behind the front by next weekend which could place us back into a pattern with daily chances for thunderstorms. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025 VFR TAFs are generally expected for the next 24 hours. The exception is some patchy dense river fog that has developed in a few spots. This is affecting TCL conditions with dense fog/low stratus possible there for a couple of hours with improving after that. NNW flow is bringing particulates downstream AL resulting in thin cirrus/smoke across the area. Otherwise, look for light/variable to near calm winds overnight and light WRLY winds with mixing for Sun afternoon. There is a small chance of a diurnal late afternoon shower or two with a weak NW flow disturbance, but the lower levels may be too dry. Will not include a mention ATTM. Note: Will continue to use AMD NOT SKED at KMGM due to comms issues. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A dry forecast is expected for the next few days as high pressure builds over the area. Min RH will range from 40 to 50% today and slightly lower tomorrow, but values are expected to remain well above critical thresholds. 20ft winds will shift from the west to east-northeasterly by tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 82 58 86 61 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 82 61 86 64 / 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 82 62 86 65 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 84 63 88 66 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 82 63 86 66 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 82 63 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 84 63 87 66 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 84 63 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....86/Martin AVIATION...08