343 FXUS64 KBMX 090517 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1217 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 415 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025 - A level 2 out of 5 chance for strong to severe storms on Monday as additional clusters of showers and storms develops to the west/northwest and moves across Central Alabama. Damaging straight-line winds will be the main hazard. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025 The showers and storms hung around a little longer this afternoon and has kept temperatures from warming out if control. The boundary associated with this activity has pushed south of the area. With the lack of excess heating and a fairly more stable environment, we are going to go ahead and pull the severe weather for the rest of the afternoon. While there are still some chances for showers and storms through the evening, it appears too low to continue to mention. It will be interesting to see the 00z models once they come in tonight, right now the CAMs have several different time lines with the waves on Monday. However they are showing the same trends with two waves of activity. 16 Previous short-term discussion: (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1127 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025 Tonight, the boundary should continue to move to the south, with a few light showers possible in the far south overnight. With high low level moisture and cooler temps overnight, fog development is possible in many areas. By sunrise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area, with another line of storms moving into the area from the west and southwest by mid morning. This line will move west to east through the morning and the afternoon, with additional showers and thunderstorms developing behind the initial line. Instabilities will be several thousand, high LI values, PW values max, and shear around 40 kts at least. Damaging winds and large hail are possible with any activity on Monday. And with a southerly component to the low level winds, with a westerly direction at the mid levels, a few storms could rotate with a tornado possible. This threat is very low, but with the shear present, this mention must be included. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 148 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025 A cold front will be in the process of passing through the area at the start of the extended forecast period with broad longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS. This will usher in a drier airmass which should help to lower our rain chances for at least a couple of days depending on how far south the dry air progresses. Highest thunderstorm chances look to focus across the Gulf Coast region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will begin warming back into the lower 90s by Thursday as low-level flow shifts back to the southwest in response to a deepening trough axis over the Southern Plains. This will bring deeper moisture content back into Central Alabama and will likely result in increased rain chances again for the second half of the week with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected on Thursday and Friday, especially during the afternoon. The pattern still appears rather chaotic by the end of the week, so details will be difficult to track this far ahead, but we may see some severe risks materialize during this time as well. A subtropical ridge may begin to strengthen over the eastern Gulf by the weekend as the mid-level trough over the ArkLaTex makes little eastward progress, placing Central Alabama within a zone of continued unsettled weather this weekend. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 Not much change with this TAF update. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop around sunrise. Transitioned the PROB30 to TEMPO groups as confidence has increased. Also bumped up the time by an hour or two. Ahead of this first round of activity, we will see MVFR ceilings develop as winds remain light. Maintained the PROB30 groups for the second wave of activity as there are some timing differences to work out. Activity will clear out of the area 00z or shortly after. Low level ceilings are likely towards the end of the period. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Humid conditions with a couple more rounds of storms are expected through tomorrow before a cold front moves through the area and brings drier air on Tuesday. Min RH will remain well above critical thresholds even after the frontal passage, and the saturated conditions will limit any fire weather concerns for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 63 84 60 / 70 60 20 10 Anniston 82 66 83 63 / 80 70 30 10 Birmingham 81 66 84 64 / 80 60 30 10 Tuscaloosa 83 67 85 66 / 80 50 30 10 Calera 82 67 84 66 / 80 60 40 10 Auburn 82 68 83 67 / 80 80 60 20 Montgomery 85 68 84 66 / 80 80 70 30 Troy 87 67 84 67 / 80 80 80 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....86 AVIATION...95/Castillo