909 FXUS64 KBMX 100045 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 745 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 643 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 - A level 2 out of 5 chance for strong to severe storms this afternoon into the evening hours as additional showers and storms are forecast to develop and move into the area. Damaging straight-line winds will be the main hazard. - Low chance for localized flash flooding will exist this afternoon and evening with the additional shower and thunderstorm activity, especially for locations that have experienced heavy rainfall over the past two days. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 258 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 Activity across the south continues to drift south. Will keep 40 to 60 percent in down there through the night. We did increase rain chances across the north and northwest through the evening as activity that has developed in TN will slide south and east into the area. As the activity slides further south, look for the activity to dissipate in intensity as we have been worked over quite a bit today and cloud cover has kept the area cooler. Once coverage decreases after midnight, patchy fog will be possible and will need to monitor for a possible dense fog advisory. 16 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 Tonight. Longwave troughing will move east, extending from over the Western Great Lakes south to over much of the Tennessee Valley Region while a weak surface front will approach the area from the northwest. Expect lingering showers and a few storms to persist across the area with greatest chances becoming confined to the southeast portion of the area overnight. Some patchy fog will be possible across the area in the early pre-dawn hours on Tuesday due to recent heavy rainfall and moist ground conditions. Winds will be from the southwest at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s far north to the upper 60s southwest. Tuesday. Longwave troughing will remain over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions while the surface front advances southeast, becoming positioned from southwest to northeast roughly along the Interstate 59 corridor by Tuesday morning. Skies will initially range from mostly clear far northwest to mostly cloudy south then become partly cloudy north and remain mostly cloudy south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the southern third of the area while the northwest counties will have the lowest chances. Winds will be from the west to southwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s far east to the upper 80s southwest. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 227 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 Latest guidance came in a bit cooler for Friday through Sunday. Heat indices still appear to be in the mid 90s this weekend, but are currently forecast to remain below 100F. Otherwise, rain and thunderstorm chances are high Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Any confidence on severe potential remains low. 12 Previous long-term discussion: (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 159 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 Ridging begins to build in across the region on Wednesday as the main upper level trough axis shift eastward. The previously stalled frontal boundary should remain to our south, which should help suppress the higher rain chances to the southern half of Central AL for Wednesday. By Thursday, another trough has moved into the Great Plains, stretching into the Western Gulf. This will lead to increased advection of deep moisture across Central AL Thursday through the weekend, leading to higher rain chances. The biggest question with this activity is coverage and forcing - guidance hints at some weak shortwaves that could move through Friday into Sunday leading to higher than typical coverage for thunderstorm activity. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, but confidence in any organized severe threat is low. We`ll likely see increasing temperatures through the end of the week with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices touching on triple-digits Friday through Sunday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 Showers and storms are moving through the area. Looks like the activity will move south of the northern sites by 1 to 2z. MGM will see the best chances through 4z. Patchy to dense fog will be possible after 8 to 9z. Additional showers/storms will be possible across MGM on Tuesday, with just a small chance in the north. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue through this evening. The best chances will be across the southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday, with lower chances elsewhere. The warm and fairly moist airmass will remain in place through the next several days, keeping RHs above 40 percent each afternoon through Thursday. 20 ft winds will be light Tuesday through Thursday, generally less than 6 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 65 85 62 88 / 60 20 0 10 Anniston 66 85 65 86 / 60 20 10 20 Birmingham 66 85 66 89 / 60 20 0 20 Tuscaloosa 67 86 67 88 / 60 20 10 20 Calera 67 85 66 85 / 60 30 10 20 Auburn 66 84 68 85 / 40 60 20 40 Montgomery 67 86 67 88 / 50 60 20 50 Troy 67 85 68 86 / 60 70 30 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...16