522
FXUS64 KBMX 171111
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
511 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025

 - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across central
   Alabama on Thursday.

 - Temperatures will commence a warming trend this weekend and are
   likely to remain above-normal through Christmas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1210 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025

A trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest today is
forecast to swing by our region tomorrow/Thursday. Increasing
moisture content combined with lift from the trough and its front
will result in showers and a few thunderstorms. Spotty showers
could begin as early as overnight Wednesday due to isentropic
lift. Periods of showers are then expected throughout Thursday,
with the potential for a few thunderstorms from mid afternoon into
the evening along a band of activity aided by a couple hundred
J/kg of MUCAPE and the advancing front. All things considered, no
severe thunderstorms are anticipated at this time.

Near zonal flow is progged over the weekend. Guidance suggests an
impulse scooting across the Tennessee Valley will bring increased
cloudiness and at least a low chance for some light showers on
Sunday.

A broad ridge axis centered over Mexico is forecast to amplify
next week and drift eastward. This type of weather pattern will
result in seasonably-mild temperatures for much of the CONUS as
the flow pattern resists southward surges of polar air. While
forecast temperatures are not shown to be within striking
distance of records for central Alabama, values will be above-
normal per climate stats for mid to late December. This upward
swing will commence over the weekend with a high likelihood of
lasting through Christmas. And, similar to the weekend, guidance
shows a couple impulses riding the northern perimeter of the
ridge, generally following a path near the Tennessee Valley. This
could result in periodic shower chances for parts of the region.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this TAF cycle,
though some MVFR cigs may develop right at the end of the current
TAF period. Winds will remain light. Scattered showers may develop
late in the period as well, and will include a PROB30 mention.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs are forecast to remain above, and winds below, critical
thresholds over the coming days. The lowest afternoon RHs should
occur on Saturday across the east half of central Alabama,
generally in the lower 30s.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected on Thursday with
periodic opportunities for precipitation next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  39  62  33 /   0  30  90  90
Anniston    61  43  62  36 /   0  30  90  90
Birmingham  60  44  62  37 /   0  30  90  80
Tuscaloosa  61  45  64  37 /   0  30  90  60
Calera      62  44  64  36 /   0  30  90  80
Auburn      61  48  61  42 /   0  20  80  90
Montgomery  62  47  64  40 /   0  30  80  80
Troy        63  47  64  42 /   0  20  80  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89
AVIATION...32/JDavis