701 FXUS64 KHUN 251830 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 130 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms have limited high temps to the mid to high 80s across the area with heat index values in the mid 90s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue through the afternoon and into the late evening as an area of vort max moves NE through the TN Valley along the western periphery of high pressure. While no severe weather is anticipated, PWATS near 2" and dew points in the mid 70s will support heavy rainfall and lightning as the main threats. The area of locally higher vorticity may support showers and storms lingering slightly longer into the overnight period but conditions should dry out as we head into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1015 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 This weekend will be the start of a long and tiresome heat wave that will extend well into the next workweek. Through the short term forecast the aforementioned high pressure will retrograde and build anchoring itself over the TN Valley. At the surface this will amount to a slow yet consistent increase in temperatures each day. Temps look to climb from the low 90s on Saturday to the high 90s by Monday. This, paired with dew points remaining in the mid to high 70s will amount to heat indices over 100 each day. Starting with Saturday, chances for showers and storms in the afternoon again look to largely inhibit afternoon highs from reaching Heat Advisory Criteria. While a few urban location may touch 105, we will hold off on an Advisory for now and adjust our focus to the new week. Models continue to support Heat Advisory conditions on both Sunday and Monday, the new question now is if we could be looking at Extreme Heat Warning Criteria (HI of 110+). This period is slightly outside the range of HRES models but global models do continue to hint at the possibility for NW and north central AL to see heat index values near 110 with Monday being the most favorable. While we have a high confidence in the need for heat products for the start of the work week, we will likely hold off on their issuance for another 24 hours to allow for more analysis of HIRES models as they come in. In summary, this will be the start of a very hot week in the SE, potentially the hottest week of the summer. It will become increasingly important to take care of yourself and your loved ones in the heat as heat impact compound each day. Now would be a good time to think about how you and your loved ones/pets may need to adjust your daily routine to account for the heat next week. Examples of this include having extra water available, planning to take extra breaks for water, shade, and cooling, and checking in on those spending time outdoors for work, sports, or exercise. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 The long term period is dictated by oppressive heat as an upper level ridge and subsequent sfc high pressure system remain stagnant over the southeast U.S. High temperatures throughout this time are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s coupled with heat indices up to 105-110 degrees (potentially exceeding 110 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday). Overnight lows will provide little to no relief as they drop into the mid to upper 70s. These temperatures are around 5-10 degrees above normal throughout the area for this time of year. HeatRisk is forecast to reach major (risk level 3 of 4) throughout all of the Tennessee Valley, with isolated portions reaching extreme (risk level 4 of 4) by mid week. This means this level of heat will likely affect anyone without cooling/hydration as well as health systems and industries. In isolated areas, this could also affect some infrastructure by mid week. Heat products will be very likely in the week through at least Wednesday. We continue to encourage everyone to stay hydrated, take breaks in shaded areas if working outdoors, and wear light-colored, lightweight clothing. In addition to the heat threat, a series of upper level shortwaves will allow enough forcing for low chances (30% or less) of showers and thunderstorms daily. We will also be monitoring the evolution of an upper level trough swinging eastward through the Great Lakes region by mid week, which could bring slightly increased storm coverage through the area by the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. VCSH are likely through most of the afternoon and evening. While showers are light and scattered, should a shower move direly over a terminal it may briefly lower ceilings or visibilities. Showers will fall off early this evening with VFR conditions for most of the night. Around sunrise (11-12Z) tomorrow an MVFR BKN stratus deck looks to impact both terminals. We will refine timing and exact ceiling heights of this cloud deck in future TAF issuances. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....HC AVIATION...RAD