516 FXUS64 KHUN 141130 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 630 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Monday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 A bunch of thin high clouds are in place across northern Alabama with thicker cloud cover in place over the Ohio Valley area. Temperatures are currently in the lower 60s to around 70 degrees in far NW Alabama. A decent low level jet is developing ahead of a storm system organizing over the Upper Midwest southwestward into Kansas and NW Texas. This is provided some good low level shear over the Tennessee Valley and helping to keep winds up this evening around 10 mph with some gusts around 15 mph over the last few hours. Expect these winds to continue overnight with additional thin/high cloud cover and a few gusts up to 20 mph possible. The exception to this is currently in a few sheltered valley locations, mainly in NE Alabama, where winds are much lighter. This may not change much in those areas until near daybreak, when they could increase to around 5 mph. This should allow for a decent temperature gradient from west to east with lows dropping into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees in portions of northeastern Alabama. Near the AL/MS border, do not expect winds to drop off so lows will be much warmer only dropping into the 55 to 60 degree range. Several models are forecasting 19 to 21 degree Celsius 925 mb temperatures in the afternoon. Also, very few are showing appreciable/persistent cloud cover. With abundant sunshine expected (given highs today 2-4 degrees above guidance), thinking that highs could reach the mid to upper 80s (especially near/west of the I-65 corridor). This will likely be able to mix up to between 35 and 40 knots worth of wind aloft. Overall confidence in reaching a full 40 knots of wind is low due to a cap that will be in place just above 850 mb. However, we will be at least close to Wind Advisory conditions. Subsequent shifts will have to monitor trends in high temperatures overnight and into Monday morning to see if one will be needed. For now, bumped up wind gusts close to criteria. Fairly dry air also is shown in model forecast soundings much of the day. This should be able to mix down drier air and lower dewpoints into the upper 40s in the afternoon. With such warm temperatures expected afternoon relative humidity values will likely drop to between 25 and 35 percent. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Models continue to hold off any precipitation ahead of an approaching cold front until after 7 PM on Monday. Most guidance brings some very isolated showers or possibly an elevated thunderstorm southeast along the front around 10 PM. This is low confidence due to a very strong cap around 850 mb and dry air between 850 and 700 mb. However, given some low level forcing and forcing around 500 mb that will come into the area ahead of the front, can`t rule out isolated to scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two. It should be another warm night on Monday night, with temperatures only dropping into the 60s overnight until around daybreak on Tuesday behind the front, when lows will likely drop into the lower to mid 50s. Northwesterly flow will bring cooler and drier air back into the region on Tuesday. It will be breezy with northwesterly winds 10 to 15 mph gusting to around 25 mph in the afternoon. Despite plenty of sunshine, temperatures will only rebound into the mid to upper 60s. A chilly night in store Tuesday night with light or clam winds expected. Lows should drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s again, but despite winds frost doesn`t look likely at this time. Upper level ridging begin to build back into the southeast later in the day on Wednesday. Highs should rebound slightly into the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 The upper level ridging continues to build over the area into the end of this upcoming week. Several disturbances will pass well to our north through the Ohio Valley region during this time. Temperatures should warm more significantly as a result with highs climbing back into the upper 70s to lower 80s at least. Lows should climb back into the 50s and lower 60s. A dry forecast though, so a nice time to enjoy outdoor plans. The upper level ridging weakens but remains over the southeast into next weekend. We could see some showers approach the area towards the end of the weekend. A more significant storm system may materialize just beyond that period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the TAF period at both terminals today, with breezy southwesterly flow. Have included wind shear of 40kts at 2000ft this morning, and SW wind gusts up to 20-25kts throughout the afternoon and evening. A cold front will bring a low chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight, and have included PROB30 groups at both terminals to depict the best window for showers and potential MVFR reductions at the terminals. Winds will begin to lessen and will shift to the NW behind the front overnight. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...25