663
FXUS64 KHUN 180520
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1120 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 904 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

-  Medium to high chances of showers Thursday and Thursday night.
   A very low chance of thunderstorms Thursday night.

 - Much colder Friday into Friday night with lows back at or below
   freezing.

 - A solid warm up from the weekend into next week with low
   chances of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 904 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A potent upper level shortwave trough was pushing through the
central and northern Rockies this evening. A southern stream
trough axis was located across AR through south TX. This trough
will move northeast into LA tonight, with moist southerly flow
increasing across the lower MS Valley. This will spread lower
clouds and increasing shower activity into the Deep South. For the
local area, very low chances of light showers will occur toward
morning. Temperatures will remain nearly steady overnight in the
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 904 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

The southern stream trough will rapidly move east-northeast into
GA and the FL panhandle by the end of the day. This along with
low level moisture transport will bring areas of showers northward
into the TN valley through the day. The precipitation should be
mostly on the light side. Instability is basically nil, so not
expecting daytime thunderstorms. The potent northern trough will
swing into the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley during the
afternoon, and into the Great Lakes and OH Valley during the
evening. The southern extent of the trough will reach the TN
Valley, but with more channeled flow and weaker vorticity
advection. However, convergence along the cold front and still
moderate -divQ will be sufficient to generate fairly widespread
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. At this time, the
probability of severe weather is quite low due to the lack of
CAPE. The cold front will sweep southeast of the area before
Midnight with strong cold air advection and blustery northwest
winds developing. Temperatures before daybreak should dip into
the lower 30s, and only recover into the middle to upper 40s on
Friday (lower 40s atop the higher Cumberland Plateau). As high
pressure shifts east through the area Friday night, winds will
drop and temperatures should bottom out in the upper 20s east to
30-32 central and west. Westerly 5h flow will become established
by Saturday with moderate warm air advection developing as a
thermal ridge shifts east ahead of another cold front dropping
southeast into the Great Lakes through the lower OH Valley into
Texas. Afternoon highs on Saturday should reach the upper 50s to
around 60. The cold front will bring low chances of light showers
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 904 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

On Sunday, a trough up in the Great Lakes region will push a cold
front into the Southeast. This will spark off a few showers (20%)
and the cooler northerly flow will keep daytime highs in the 50s.
Overnight lows will remain above freezing. The front will try to lift
back northward on Monday, providing another low chance (10-20%) of
showers across the TN Valley. Sfc high pressure in the OH Valley
will slide over to the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday, providing not
only dry conditions into mid week, but warmer temps too. We will
reach the lower 60s on Tuesday, and wait for this...reach the low to
mid 60s on Christmas Eve/Wednesday!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Flight weather conditions will remain VFR through ~12Z with
ceilings at or above 080agl. Ceilings will lower into the MVFR
category (020-025agl) by 12-15Z, and to IFR (005-010agl) with an
increase in SHRA activity by 15Z. SHRA and a low chance of TSRA will
continue at times through 02-04Z when a pre-frontal trough will
shift wind to the west-northwest with ceilings rising back into
the 010-015agl range (MVFR).

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...17