845 FXUS64 KBMX 271114 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 614 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025 - Heat Advisory in effect 11 AM - 9 PM Sunday for much of Central Alabama - There is high chance for dangerous heat conditions to continue through Wednesday. This will be a long-duration period of extreme heat conditions with no overnight relief, affecting people and pets without adequate cooling and hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025 Mid to upper level ridging remains over much of the region while surface high pressure was centered across Southern Georgia. Expect the mid to upper ridge to broaden, extending from over Eastern New Mexico east and southeast to the Southeast Atlantic Coastline during the day on Sunday and persist through much of the day on Monday as the ridge becomes centered over the South- Central Plains. The ridge will begin to contract in size from the southeast on Tuesday as a mid-level weakness develops just to the southeast of the area. Surface high pressure will migrate westward, becoming centered across Eastern Alabama and Western Georgia during the day on Sunday then continuing to drift westward, becoming centered across the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region by Monday morning. The surface high pressure area will drift further west, becoming centered across South-Central Texas Tuesday morning while surface troughing develops across Northern Florida extending northeast into the Coastal Carolinas. Increasing heat concerns will be the highlight of the short-term forecast period as chances for showers and storms will only be isolated (10-20%) and confined to the northwest half of the forecast area on Sunday with isolated (10-25%) chances across all but the southwest counties on Monday. On Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase from the southeast with isolated (25-45%) chances across the northwest half of the area with scattered (50-60%) chances across the southeastern part of the forecast area. A few of the storms could be heavy or strong due to the presence of strong low-level instability on Tuesday. Outside of any temporary heat relief from the generally afternoon to early evening convection, highs will range from the lower 90s in the higher elevations east to the mid 90s elsewhere Sunday, followed by readings from the low 90s in the higher terrain east to the mid and upper 90s elsewhere both Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will not provide much in the way of relief with accumulating heat stress through this duration as low temperatures will only fall into the mid to upper 70s across the area. The combination of heat and humidity will create peak heat index readings from the upper 90s in the higher terrain east to values near 105 west and central Sunday with similar conditions Monday. The most miserable conditions look to occur Tuesday with peak heat index readings from around 100 in the higher terrain to readings around 107 west and southwest. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025 Mid to upper-level ridging will decrease its footprint further in elongated form over much of West-Central Texas extending northeast to over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and over the Southern Ohio River Valley Regions. Surface troughing will migrate west across the Northern Gulf Coast while strengthening surface high pressure across South-Central Canada will support the southward movement of a cold front across the Midwest and Northern Ohio River Valley Regions on Wednesday. On Thursday, the ridging becomes more compact over the Southern High Plains Region while a mid-level weakness becomes more defined over our area. The surface cold front to the north pushes south into Tennessee while surface troughing persists along the West-Central Gulf Coast. The mid- level weakness persist over the area into Friday and Saturday as strong high pressure becomes centered across the Western Great Lakes and forces the surface cold front further southward, roughly along the U.S. Highway 278 corridor early on Friday and drifting further south to roughly parallel to the Interstate 20 corridor by Saturday morning. Gradual heat relief will come for the latter portion of the work week with scattered (55%-70%) showers and thunderstorms across the area Wednesday with greatest chances east and southeast followed by scattered (55-70%) showers and thunderstorms areawide Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures will range from around 90 far east to the low to mid 90s elsewhere Wednesday followed by readings from the upper 80s far east to the lower 90s elsewhere Thursday to highs from the upper 90s far east and far north Friday to values in the lower 90s south and west. High temperatures may decrease further on Saturday with readings from the mid 90s in the higher terrain east to around 90 south and west. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s Wednesday through Friday mornings followed by readings around 70 far north and far east Saturday morning to the lower 70s elsewhere. 05 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025 VFR conditions expected today with generally light winds through the period. River fog has developed at KASN, leading to reduce VIS and low CIGs, but this is isolated and should improve to VFR by roughly 14z. Little to no rain is expected in the area today as high pressure builds across the region. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 25/Owen && .FIRE WEATHER... Only isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast Sunday through Tuesday as high temperatures approach the mid to upper 90s across the area with high heat index readings. Low-level humidity will remain high with minimum RH values persisting well above critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 74 95 75 / 10 10 30 20 Anniston 93 74 94 75 / 10 10 20 10 Birmingham 95 77 96 77 / 10 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 94 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 Calera 94 76 95 76 / 10 10 20 10 Auburn 94 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 10 Montgomery 95 76 97 77 / 0 0 10 10 Troy 94 75 97 76 / 10 0 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun- Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson- Lamar-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...25/Owen