718 FXUS64 KBMX 091615 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1115 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 932 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025 High pressure will move through the Gulf, with an upper level low pressure system and trough moving through the Ohio Valley. The state is placed between the two systems with west to southwesterly flow prevailing through the short term. This flow will advect plenty of moisture to the area with PW values near max for this time of year. Instabilities will average between 2000 and 3000 j/kg with higher amounts possible in the western half of the area this afternoon. Diurnal convection is expected today and tomorrow with strong storms possible. The wind profile is just strong enough for storm movement, with severe storms not anticipated at this time. With the moisture available, any storm will produce high rain rates, with a localized flooding concern in any areas that received rainfall yesterday and/or have training cells that build over the same areas. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 932 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025 Friday through Tuesday, high pressure builds over the southeastern US. Through Friday, diurnal convection is expected with nearly the same parameters as the short term. Moisture should be higher in the southern half of the state, with coverage higher in these areas. For the weekend, an upper level ridge moves across the area. Though southwest to westerly flow will continue to advect moisture, diurnal activity may have less coverage. Right now, there isn`t enough to indicate severe potential, so will mention isolated to scattered convection each afternoon. By Monday, flow will transition to a northerly direction as the center of the high is closer to the state. This will bring winds that are slightly lower in speed with less moisture advection. Diurnal activity will still be possible, though the coverage will continue to be isolated. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025 Diurnal activity is expected today across the state. Confidence is low on timing and coverage, so left a PROB30 in each site`s TAF for now. Activity should move slowly, with LIFR conditions over any TAF site. Low level moisture is high through tomorrow, with fog potential at a few sites for a few hours in the early morning. Scattered diurnal activity is expected at the end of the TAF period on Thursday afternoon. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with elevated rain chances through at least Friday. 20 foot winds should remain less than 8 mph from the west and southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 92 70 89 70 / 50 30 80 30 Anniston 90 71 87 71 / 50 30 80 30 Birmingham 91 72 89 71 / 50 30 80 30 Tuscaloosa 90 73 89 72 / 50 30 80 30 Calera 90 72 88 71 / 50 30 70 30 Auburn 90 72 88 72 / 40 30 60 30 Montgomery 93 73 92 72 / 40 30 70 30 Troy 93 71 91 71 / 40 30 60 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24