803
FXUS64 KMOB 221148
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
548 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

  - A moderate rip current risk will return today as easterly
    winds increase over the Gulf, and could remain moderate
    through Thursday afternoon as winds shift southeasterly.

  - Well above average temperatures are expected all week,
    including Christmas Day.

  - Dense fog will likely become a common occurrence each night
    starting Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Periods of light rain will continue across southwest Alabama and
southeast Mississippi through noon today while lifting slowly
northward. As a strong surface ridge sets up along the eastern
seaboard today, the stalled frontal boundary close to the coast
will become reorientated from roughly Butler, AL to Pensacola, FL
by this afternoon with a drier air mass advecting in from the
east. This surface ridge will then get pushed southward across
Georgia, Alabama, and northern Florida on Tuesday, followed by a
high pressure area eventually setting up across our area Tuesday
night through Christmas Day. In the meantime, the upper ridge to
our south will slowly build northward through midweek, and then
gradually breakdown Thursday into Friday. These two features will
keep our forecast area dry and very warm over the Christmas
holiday and into the weekend. Chestnuts will not be the only thing
roasting this week as we expect high temperatures to rise into
the middle to upper 70s Wednesday through Saturday away from the
coast, with lower 80s definitely a possiblity. These temperatures
are about 13 to 18 degrees above normal. Highs along the coast
will be in the lower 70s due to the cool Gulf waters. Low temps
will also be about 13 to 18 degrees above normal through the same
time frame, and could be as high as 17 to 23 degrees above normal
Friday night.

Now the question on everyone`s mind. Could it be a White
Christmas? If you consider fog to be white, well technically, yes.
Santa Claus will definitely need Rudolph`s red nose to navigate
through the thick fog we are expecting Christmas Eve. In fact, we
are expecting patchy to areas of dense fog to start as early as
Tuesday night, and could continue all week. The next chance of
rain showers is expected on Sunday as an upper shortwave
approaches from the west.

Beach Forecast: A MODERATE rip current risk will return today as
easterly winds increase over the Gulf, and could remain moderate
through Thursday afternoon as winds shift southeasterly. A LOW
rip current risk is expected through the remainder of the week.
/22

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

IFR to MVFR ceilings and visbys this morning will slowly improve
throughout the day as rain ends and ceilings erode from east to
west. VFR conditions should return by the late afternoon into
early evening. Winds will be out of the east throughout the day.
BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Mariners operating small craft over the Gulf will need to exercise
caution today as an easterly flow increases to moderate to
occasionally strong. A light easterly to southeasterly flow
follows for Tuesday into midweek, and then becomes variable the
latter half of the week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  52  74  55 /  30   0   0   0
Pensacola   68  56  71  57 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      69  55  70  57 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   69  46  76  51 /  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  66  49  74  52 /  20   0   0   0
Camden      65  47  73  51 /  10   0   0   0
Crestview   70  46  74  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$