402 FXUS64 KHUN 021125 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 625 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 A band of low/mid altitude clouds extending from middle Tennessee west of Nashville to the NW TN/GA border were drifting slowly to the south. These clouds are remnants of showers that dissipated before midnight, and are coinciding with a weak cold front. This boundary extended from SE Missouri to the western Carolinas, moving to the south. Otherwise under clear skies, temperatures have cooled into the upper 50s to lower 60s with light winds. These conditions are favorable for the formation of fog. So far, fog has not impacted our observation sites. But it can be seen via a Nighttime Microphysics view, forming over parts of western Jackson county, southern DeKalb, and around Smith Lake in southern Cullman county. With a couple hours before daybreak, fog may become an issue but will quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise (~530 AM CDT). Model guidance continues depicting the cold front moving across the forecast area today. It should remain primarily over our more NE areas, then should become more diffuse as we go into the night. The presence of this front, plus daytime heating helping to push high temperatures into the mid 80s, low/mid 60s dewpoints, will produce a marginally unstable environment. Some of the Convective Allowing Models were depicting isolated showers forming in the afternoon, while the longer term models trended dry. Will stay with a dry forecast this go around. That said, we could see cumulus/towering cumulus formation during and shortly after maximum daytime heating. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure anchors itself in as we head into the middle of the week. With the upper level ridge amplifying and shifting from Deep South into the Southeast, southerly flow returns bringing in both warmer and more moisture rich air. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday climb into the upper 80s and would not be surprised to see our first 90 degree day of the year. Humidity also begins to increase with dewpoints slowly creeping back up into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 An extremely slow moving front will be to our northwest on Thursday while a cut off low will finally shift to the Southeast`s coast, but not make any further progress due to the high pressure in place along the eastern seaboard. This will leave us with low chances (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Luckily, there is only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and meager shear so not expecting much in the way of strong/severe storms. However, these values rise on Friday and Saturday, especially during the afternoon hours and so do the PWATs. More of a westerly flow aloft will develop on Friday, letting the front only inch closer to the TN Valley, providing medium to high chances (60-70%) for showers and thunderstorm on both Friday and Saturday. Highs through the extended forecast will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows around 70. Storm chances will persist through the weekend, and models continue to show the boundary not really getting in here through the weekend. However trends of the frontal location need to be monitored as concerns of not only stronger storms on Friday and Saturday, but with the westerly flow setting up nearly paralleling the front, and sending ripples through, flooding could become a concern if the front ends up farther south over us. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions should continue for the TAF. A weak cold front located from western KY to northern GA will move across the region today. It should become stationary this evening then slowly become more diffuse into Tue. The development of CU and some TCU are possible this afternoon with the boundary in the area and strong daytime heating. Shower development is not expected at this time. Otherwise, light winds this morning should become southerly less than 10kt this afternoon. Winds will become light again this evening. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...RSB