053
FXUS64 KBMX 172300
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
500 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 500 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025

 - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across central
   Alabama on Thursday.

 - Temperatures will commence a warming trend this weekend and are
   likely to remain above-normal through Christmas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1138 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals a shortwave lifting
along the western Gulf coast as another trough slides east across
the Pacific Northwest. Showers have been going through much of the
morning across northwestern Alabama as a ribbon of H5 vorticity
ejects ahead of the aforementioned shortwave. Rain chances ramp
up Thursday as the northern trough slides across the Plains while
sending a cold front our way. Ahead of this feature, isentropic
lift will likely lead to a few showers overnight into Thursday
morning. Ample moisture in place across the region will help
promote widespread showers through much of the day. Our thinking
remains in the same when it comes to our thunder potential.
Chances remain low at this time due to limited instability. Best
chances would come during the afternoon hours when latest guidance
hints at a band of 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE developing. Rain
chances quickly come to an end in the wake of a front overnight
Thursday into Friday. High pressure slides into the area, keeping
us dry for Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday, a trough over the Great Lakes region will kick a cold
front our way. In the meantime, the previously mentioned cold front
will attempt to retreat north, pulling some moisture back across the
state. This will warrant some low (20-30%) chance for showers Sunday
and Monday.

Broad ridging then develops over much of CONUS, leading to a warming
trend as we head towards Christmas.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025

We currently have VFR conditions prevailing at all sites through
Thursday morning. Isolated showers are likely to develop shortly
before sunrise. MVFR ceilings develop areawide through the morning
hours as shower activity becomes more widespread. IFR conditions
are expected in the afternoon along with light rain.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs are forecast to remain above, and winds below, critical
thresholds over the coming days. The lowest afternoon RHs should
occur on Saturday across the east half of central Alabama,
generally in the lower 30s.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected on Thursday with
periodic opportunities for precipitation next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     40  62  35  51 /  10  80  90   0
Anniston    44  63  37  51 /  10  80  90   0
Birmingham  45  62  37  51 /  20  80  80   0
Tuscaloosa  47  64  37  53 /  30  80  70   0
Calera      45  63  37  54 /  30  80  80   0
Auburn      48  61  43  55 /  10  80  90   0
Montgomery  46  64  43  56 /  30  90  80   0
Troy        46  64  44  56 /  20  90  70   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...16