888 FXUS64 KBMX 012307 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 607 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025 A deep trough over the northeast will slowly move to the east through the short term, with high pressure building over the southeastern US. A shortwave moving through the area today will bring cloudy skies and a few spots of light rain on radar. The area should be rain free through the day as the air seems too dry for any rain to reach the surface. PW values are right at or less than 1 inch, enough for cloud cover over the state, but lacking for any convective development. Winds will slowly transition from out of the west today to the southeast by Monday afternoon, with a return of warmer air to the state. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s, a couple of degrees below normal for this time of year, with highs tomorrow several degrees warmer, closer to normal values. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025 Not much of any change was needed in the long term. Dry, high pressure in control through midweek. We could see some isolated activity late Wednesday with a possible seabreeze working northward and again on Thursday as we will be on the outer periphery of the ridge. With that said, we will remain fairly dry through most layers, so chances will remain low each day. We begin to moisten back up by Friday and better chances will be around through the weekend of course. Even with the higher rain chances, it does not appear to be a washout with the majority of the showers/storms during the afternoon. 16 Previous long-term discussion: (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 227 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025 A ridge axis will be extending through the Eastern CONUS at the start of the extended period. An upper-level cutoff low will be centered over Florida with a dry and warm airmass over Central Alabama. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s from Tuesday through Friday with plenty of sun most days. On Thursday, the upper- level low will drift north towards Central Alabama while a mid-level trough and attendant cold front move across the Mississippi River. It`s possible we see some brief showers on Thursday, but forecast soundings look quite dry as the ridge axis becomes compressed over the area between the other two synoptic features, so rain chances look minimal. Friday looks to feature higher rain chances as the low- amplitude trough continues to progress across the Ohio Valley and dampen the ridge, allowing for the front to move into the area. Models indicate a period of westerly flow redeveloping behind the front by next weekend which could place us back into a pattern with daily chances for thunderstorms. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025 VFR conditions and light winds prevail through the majority of this TAF cycle. With that said, there is a low chance for patchy MVFR around sunrise Monday morning. Have introduced TEMPO groups to account for this brief period of fog as the setup is similar to what we saw last night. Continued with the mention of AMD NOT SKED at EET with this cycle. MGM looks to be having some comms issues again so have added AMD NOT SKED back with this package. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... A dry forecast is expected for the next few days as high pressure builds over the area. Min RH will range from the upper 30s to 40s on Monday, but values are expected to remain well above critical thresholds. 20ft winds will shift to the east-northeast by tomorrow, but remain light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 58 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 60 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 63 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 62 87 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 62 85 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 63 85 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 63 87 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 63 87 64 90 / 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...95/Castillo