506 FXUS64 KBMX 100551 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025 GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery reveals lows level stratus beginning to spread across the region. A mix of low ceilings and fog can be expected through the night. If the ceilings begin to back off, fog will be the main player overnight through sunrise. The 00Z HREF hints at a medium chance of vis less than 1 mile so we will monitor trends in case a Dense Fog Advisory is warranted through the night. We will likely see a similar situation tonight into Wednesday morning. Taking a look at water vapor imagery, we can see the stout upper trough peeling off to the northeast with a few clusters of thunderstorms ongoing across the northern Gulf coast as well as back to our west. A weak frontal boundary can be seen moving south across the area at this time. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our northern areas this morning as it moves through. This feature will stall across the state over the next several days. Drier air will begin to work into the region behind the boundary as weak upper ridging builds in. This will allow for generally rain-free conditions for the northern half of the state. We will hold onto low to moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms to the south as moisture convergence is maximized along the boundary. A few strong storms are likely this afternoon as we heat up and CAPE values climb into the 2500-3000 J/kg range for our southern counties. However, shear looks to be lacking so would expect any storms to be relatively short-lived. Wednesday trends even drier as the boundary nudges even further south across the state. 95/Castillo && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 227 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 Latest guidance came in a bit cooler for Friday through Sunday. Heat indices still appear to be in the mid 90s this weekend, but are currently forecast to remain below 100F. Otherwise, rain and thunderstorm chances are high Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Any confidence on severe potential remains low. 12 Previous long-term discussion: (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 159 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025 Ridging begins to build in across the region on Wednesday as the main upper level trough axis shift eastward. The previously stalled frontal boundary should remain to our south, which should help suppress the higher rain chances to the southern half of Central AL for Wednesday. By Thursday, another trough has moved into the Great Plains, stretching into the Western Gulf. This will lead to increased advection of deep moisture across Central AL Thursday through the weekend, leading to higher rain chances. The biggest question with this activity is coverage and forcing - guidance hints at some weak shortwaves that could move through Friday into Sunday leading to higher than typical coverage for thunderstorm activity. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, but confidence in any organized severe threat is low. We`ll likely see increasing temperatures through the end of the week with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices touching on triple-digits Friday through Sunday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025 GOES Nighttime Microphysics reveals low level stratus beginning to spread across the region. BHM has already lowered with other sites expected to reach MVFR/IFR over the next several hours. There is also a medium chance for vis around 1 mile closer to sunrise for most terminals. VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise and will prevail for the remainder of this TAF cycle. With that said, there is potential for showers and storms near MGM during the afternoon and evening hours which could lead to reduced vis/cigs at times. Maintained the PROB30 mention for now as the timing window remains fairly large. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue through this evening. The best chances will be across the southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday, with lower chances elsewhere. The warm and fairly moist airmass will remain in place through the next several days, keeping RHs above 40 percent each afternoon through Thursday. 20 ft winds will be light Tuesday through Thursday, generally less than 6 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 61 88 65 / 10 0 10 10 Anniston 85 64 88 68 / 20 0 10 10 Birmingham 85 65 88 68 / 10 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 87 65 89 70 / 20 0 10 10 Calera 85 65 88 68 / 20 10 10 10 Auburn 83 67 86 70 / 40 20 30 20 Montgomery 86 67 88 69 / 40 20 30 20 Troy 87 67 88 69 / 40 20 50 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95/Castillo LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...95/Castillo