506
FXUS64 KBMX 100551
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025

GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery reveals lows level stratus
beginning to spread across the region. A mix of low ceilings and
fog can be expected through the night. If the ceilings begin to
back off, fog will be the main player overnight through sunrise.
The 00Z HREF hints at a medium chance of vis less than 1 mile so
we will monitor trends in case a Dense Fog Advisory is warranted
through the night. We will likely see a similar situation tonight
into Wednesday morning.

Taking a look at water vapor imagery, we can see the stout upper
trough peeling off to the northeast with a few clusters of
thunderstorms ongoing across the northern Gulf coast as well as
back to our west. A weak frontal boundary can be seen moving
south across the area at this time. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across our northern areas this
morning as it moves through. This feature will stall across the
state over the next several days. Drier air will begin to work
into the region behind the boundary as weak upper ridging builds
in. This will allow for generally rain-free conditions for the
northern half of the state. We will hold onto low to moderate
chances for showers and thunderstorms to the south as moisture
convergence is maximized along the boundary. A few strong storms
are likely this afternoon as we heat up and CAPE values climb into
the 2500-3000 J/kg range for our southern counties. However, shear
looks to be lacking so would expect any storms to be relatively
short-lived. Wednesday trends even drier as the boundary nudges
even further south across the state.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025

Latest guidance came in a bit cooler for Friday through Sunday. Heat
indices still appear to be in the mid 90s this weekend, but are
currently forecast to remain below 100F. Otherwise, rain and
thunderstorm chances are high Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon. Any confidence on severe potential remains low.

12

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025

Ridging begins to build in across the region on Wednesday as the
main upper level trough axis shift eastward. The previously stalled
frontal boundary should remain to our south, which should help
suppress the higher rain chances to the southern half of Central AL
for Wednesday. By Thursday, another trough has moved into the Great
Plains, stretching into the Western Gulf. This will lead to
increased advection of deep moisture across Central AL Thursday
through the weekend, leading to higher rain chances. The biggest
question with this activity is coverage and forcing - guidance hints
at some weak shortwaves that could move through Friday into Sunday
leading to higher than typical coverage for thunderstorm activity.
Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, but confidence
in any organized severe threat is low.

We`ll likely see increasing temperatures through the end of the week
with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices
touching on triple-digits Friday through Sunday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025

GOES Nighttime Microphysics reveals low level stratus beginning to
spread across the region. BHM has already lowered with other sites
expected to reach MVFR/IFR over the next several hours. There is
also a medium chance for vis around 1 mile closer to sunrise for
most terminals. VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise and
will prevail for the remainder of this TAF cycle. With that said,
there is potential for showers and storms near MGM during the
afternoon and evening hours which could lead to reduced vis/cigs
at times. Maintained the PROB30 mention for now as the timing
window remains fairly large.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue through this evening.
The best chances will be across the southeast on Tuesday and
Wednesday, with lower chances elsewhere. The warm and fairly moist
airmass will remain in place through the next several days, keeping
RHs above 40 percent each afternoon through Thursday. 20 ft winds
will be light Tuesday through Thursday, generally less than 6 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  61  88  65 /  10   0  10  10
Anniston    85  64  88  68 /  20   0  10  10
Birmingham  85  65  88  68 /  10   0  10  10
Tuscaloosa  87  65  89  70 /  20   0  10  10
Calera      85  65  88  68 /  20  10  10  10
Auburn      83  67  86  70 /  40  20  30  20
Montgomery  86  67  88  69 /  40  20  30  20
Troy        87  67  88  69 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...95/Castillo