055 FXUS64 KMOB 120529 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1229 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 ...Through Thursday Night... Upper troughing remains situated west of the forecast area through Thursday night with generally southwest flow aloft overhead. Upper ridging remains to the southeast of the area. This puts us in a position to favor more typical pulse type afternoon into early evening showers and thunderstorms we`d expect to see this time of year, primarily in the vicinity of the northward advancing sea breeze boundary. Ample CAPE and light shear should keep any severe threat limited with only a couple storms being capable of producing small hail and gusty winds if updrafts can become deep enough and persist long enough before collapsing. Temperatures remain quite warm in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s during the afternoon with overnight lows generally in the lower 70`s. The rip current risk remains low through Thursday night. MM/25 ...Friday through Wednesday... The Extended over the southeastern quarter of the Conus and Gulf starts with an upper high centered off the Florida Atlantic coast, with an upper ridge stretching west-southwest over the Gulf and also east over the tropical Atlantic, and a closed low/upper trough over the eastern Central Plains. This Eastern Plains system pushes east over the Tennessee River Valley to over the DelMarVa Peninsula by Monday night. The upper high along the Florida Atlantic Coast flattens, along with shifting east a bit. An upper ridge remains stretching west over the Gulf, with a mean upper trough developing along the west side of the Lower Mississippi River. A surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast keeps an organized onshore flow over the northern Gulf coast, even as it shifts south to over the Caribbean and Gulf, keeping moisture levels high (precipitable h20 levels of 1.8"-2.0"). With the shortwave passing just north of the forecast area through the period, combined with seasonably warm temperatures bringing MLCapes in the 2500J/kg range (plus or minus), daily seabreeze initiated scattered to numerous daytime showers and thunderstorms are expected. The above instability, combined with DCapes of 800-1100 J/kg, strong to severe storms are possible. With limited wind shear, our usual pulse type summer convection is expected. Overnight, convection is expected to shift offshore, as air temperatures cool to below water temperatures (currently in the low to mid 80s reported on local buoys). Tuesday through Wednesday, guidance is advertising the upper high shifting back west and building off the Florida Atlantic coast. Onshore flow continues with keeping moisture levels high. The daytime onshore/night time offshore regime continues. Seasonable to a bit above seasonal temperatures are expected through the weekend into the coming week. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected. Heat Indices slowly rise from the 98 to 102 degree range Thursday to 100-106 degrees on Monday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80 south are expected through the Extended. A Low Risk of Rip Currents Thursday becomes a moderate this weekend as a more organized onshore flow brings increasing swell to area beaches, combining with an tidal range. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 VFR conditions should prevail through the night. Winds will be light and variable. Winds will be light out of the south tomorrow as scattered showers and storms develop along the seabreeze by early afternoon. This development will likely occur around the I-10 corridor then spread inland through the afternoon. Coverage is expected to be lower than yesterday; however, localized and temporary reductions in visibilities will be possible to MVFR or IFR in the vicinity of any storms. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Light southerly to southeasterly flow prevails through the end of the week before shifting southwesterly on Sunday. No marine impacts are expected outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibility in/near any storms. A small chance for waterspouts exists nearer the coast any given morning nearer daybreak. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 88 74 89 74 89 74 90 / 20 80 30 80 30 80 30 80 Pensacola 77 87 78 87 78 88 78 89 / 40 80 50 80 40 80 40 80 Destin 77 88 78 88 79 89 79 90 / 50 80 60 80 50 80 40 80 Evergreen 72 90 71 89 71 91 71 91 / 20 80 20 80 20 80 20 80 Waynesboro 73 89 71 91 71 90 72 90 / 20 80 20 80 20 80 20 80 Camden 72 88 71 87 71 88 71 88 / 30 80 20 80 30 80 30 80 Crestview 72 90 72 89 72 90 72 92 / 30 80 40 80 30 80 30 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob