320 FXUS64 KBMX 121658 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1158 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025 Central Alabama is flanked by an upper-level trough over the Central Plains and subtropical ridging centered off the Florida Atlantic coast. Deep flow is from the south to southwest which will promote warm and humid conditions through the short term period (and beyond). Moisture content is on the rise as evidenced by the increased PWATs on our 12Z RAOB, and PWATs will continue to climb up to around 2" by this evening. The humid conditions will result in "feels like" temperatures in the mid 90s both today and tomorrow. Additionally, rain chances will be gradually increasing each day into the weekend, particularly as upper-level support increases as the trough drifts eastward. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon which will be capable of producing heavy downpours and some gusty winds. It`s possible we could see a marginally severe storm this afternoon, but most of the activity will be disorganized and diurnal. In this type of pattern, the sea breeze will be active, and I suspect we will be seeing that activity reach our south late in the day. Also, increased shortwave energy/PVA will foster higher coverage of storms tomorrow and perhaps a broken line of thunderstorms which will move from west to east across the area. Again, some storms could be strong and cannot rule out a short-lived marginally severe storm or two in this warm, unstable airmass. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025 The unsettled and tropical weather pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend as diurnally-driven numerous to widespread showers and storms remain in the forecast. Central Alabama will remain wedged in between the weakening mid-level closed low/trough to our northwest and 593 decameter ridge just off the Florida Atlantic coast. Southwesterly flow will dominate over most of the atmospheric profile, with plenty of synoptic lift and divergence aloft as the mid-level trough axis slowly swings eastward across the Deep South. Warm air and moisture advection is advertised to keep stronger storms limited as lapse rates aloft become moist- adiabatic and PWATs rise above 2 inches. As mentioned yesterday, for folks who have outdoor activities planned over the weekend you need to make preparations for at least a passing shower or storm that will put a damper on things, but for the most part a washout is not anticipated despite high overall PoPs during the afternoon. With the high moisture content in the atmosphere, showers and storms will be very efficient rainfall producers and could lead to localized flooding within urban areas and poor drainage locations. Elevated rain and storm chances especially during the afternoon hours remain in the forecast through Tuesday of next week, as we remain stuck between the ridge to the southeast and 500mb weakness to the northwest. By the end of the week, guidance trends are now clearly indicating a very high likelihood of hot days ahead as we go into mid-June. Upper level ridging is advertised to greatly increase by Wednesday and Thursday of next week, sending highs well into the 90s over consecutive days. Although the exact location the building 500mb ridge remains in question across the southern CONUS by late next week, the overall signal continues to point toward a hot pattern with heat indices rising between 100 and 105 degrees each afternoon. Diurnally-driven scattered to perhaps numerous summertime convective showers and storms would also be in the forecast each day. 56/GDG && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025 Low-level cu have persisted throughout the day, but ceilings have risen to VFR due to daytime mixing. Sfc winds will be from the south at 5 to 8 kts and will supply moisture to the area which will fuel scattered convection this afternoon. Best chances will be at ASN where a TEMPO for TSRA was used from 21-00Z, and utilized PROB30s during the same hours at the remaining sites. Convection should diminish this evening, but IFR ceilings are expected to develop by 08-09Z. Some patchy fog may develop overnight as well, especially where it rains. Conditions will be slow to improve tomorrow morning, and reduced flight criteria is anticipated for most of the second half of this period. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... A warm and very moist airmass will remain in place through the end of this week. MinRH values are forecast to remain above 60 percent each afternoon as a tropical air mass moves northward over the Deep South with high rain chances. 20 ft winds from the south will be very light, generally less than 5 mph through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 69 87 69 / 60 30 60 50 Anniston 86 70 87 71 / 60 30 60 50 Birmingham 88 71 87 72 / 50 30 60 50 Tuscaloosa 88 73 87 72 / 40 30 80 40 Calera 86 71 86 71 / 50 30 60 40 Auburn 86 71 86 71 / 60 30 60 40 Montgomery 88 71 88 71 / 50 30 60 30 Troy 88 71 87 71 / 60 30 70 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...86/Martin