276
FXUS64 KMOB 082342
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Through Monday Night...
The northeastern flank of an upper level ridge from the western half
of the Gulf to northern Mexico, is beginning to erode and become
suppressed to the southwest as an upper low/upper trof over the
northern and central CONUS begins to amplify and dig southward. As a
result, the active zone of the westerlies aloft we have been seeing
over the past couple days mainly to our north is now beginning to
sink southward which will put the forecast area in the cross-
hairs to see more in the way of active weather as we open the work
week. Forecasters are seeing a train of convective complexes
aligned from central AL, westward across LA to the Red River
Valley of TX/OK. This activity is sinking slight southward at the
base of the evolving long-wave trof. The high resolution ensembles
of the CAMs show a resurgence in convective coverage during the
remainder of the afternoon within a sufficiently warm, deeply
moist, and unstable environment. PWAT`s on the order of 1.9 to
2.1" is well above 2 standard deviations above the climatological
means for June 8th. There are indications that an old meso-scale
outflow boundary from convection to the north will sink southward
to the coast late in the afternoon and begin to stall along the
coastal counties tonight. This feature will serve as a focus for
continued convective initiation and there are concerns we could
see repeated storm motions over the same areas which would favor
localized flooding in lower-lying/urban areas subject to poor
drainage. Considering this, the National Centers have issued a
slight risk of excessive rainfall.
SPC has our entire area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather through
tonight. A few severe storms may exhibit bowing segments with
damaging winds being the main threat. A more robust energy maximum
at the base of the upper trof looks to pivot eastward through the
area on Monday. Considering the persistent warm, moist, unstable
environment for this feature to operate on along with hard to
resolve meso-scale outflow boundaries draped over the area, severe
storms Monday is at Slight Risk.
We have seen the latest rip current guidance breaching into low end
high categories along our beaches through early Monday.
Reports from a few beach services are reporting red flags and thus,
we have issued a rip current statement for High Rip Currents through
Monday afternoon. /10
Tuesday Through Sunday...
Deep upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes region begins to
lift northeastward by Tuesday night and into Wednesday as an upper
ridge builds in over the southeast US. Over our local area, the
active and diffluent westerly to northwesterly flow pattern, with
several embedded shortwaves moving through it, will continue through
early Wednesday. Several more rounds of showers and storms are
expected to develop during the Tuesday through Wednesday morning
time-frame as the shortwaves move across the area. Cannot rule
out at least one more MCS that may attempt to develop and move
through, bringing with it the risk for gusty winds. We will
monitor this closely over the coming days with receipt of new hi-
res guidance.
By Thursday and through the remainder of the period, flow aloft
becomes southwesterly as the upper ridge builds to our east and a
southern-stream shortwave trough slowly pushes into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. The presence of the upper ridge should
bring us back to a more typical summer-time pattern, with
scattered to locally numerous pulse-type storms developing during
the afternoon and dissipating by the evening due to the loss of
daytime heating. However, with the upper trough just to our west,
rain chances may remain a bit higher than what we typically see in
the summer. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
VFR conditions will likely prevail across most of the area
tonight. HOwever, a corridor of thunderstorms that have developed
along a stalled boundary just north of I-10 and south of highway
84 will likely persist through the night resulting in localized
IFR to LIFR visbys and MVFR ceilings. Gusty winds and hail will
also be possible with these storms. More widespread coverage in
storms is expected to develop by sunrise tomorrow resulting in
MVFR to IFR visbys across most of the area. Storms should subside
by noon tomorrow before likely returning along the coast tomorrow
evening. Winds will be light out of the southwest tonight
increasing to around 10 knots tomorrow. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Small craft operators heading out into the open Gulf should
exercise caution into Monday due to moderate westerly to
southwesterly winds of 15-20 knots. An increase in coverage of
showers and storms will occur tonight through Thursday and
mariners should be prepared for stronger storms that will bring
higher winds and low visibilities. Mariners should also be aware
that waterspouts are also possible during morning activity near
the coast. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 74 90 72 87 71 90 71 90 / 70 70 70 90 50 70 20 70
Pensacola 78 89 75 87 74 88 75 88 / 80 60 80 90 50 70 30 60
Destin 79 89 77 88 77 89 78 89 / 70 50 80 90 50 70 40 50
Evergreen 70 91 69 87 68 90 69 92 / 80 80 80 90 40 70 20 60
Waynesboro 70 89 67 85 67 88 68 91 / 60 80 70 80 30 60 10 70
Camden 69 86 67 83 66 86 68 89 / 70 90 80 70 30 60 10 60
Crestview 72 91 71 89 69 90 70 92 / 80 50 80 90 40 70 20 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob