280
FXUS64 KMOB 172330
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
530 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

  - A high risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches
    for Thursday through Friday.

  - Some strong storms may be possible mainly over the coastal
    counties on Thursday.

  - Moderate to strong marine winds may create hazardous
    conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters late
    Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A modest upper trof oriented from near the ArkLaTex down to along
the Texas coast slowly advances eastward through tonight while a
large upper trof evolves over the central states. The modest upper
trof becomes absorbed into the large upper trof which amplifies
while continuing into the eastern states through Thursday night.
An associated surface low passes well off to the north and brings
a cold front through the forecast area Thursday night. MLCAPE
values of around 500 J/kg are anticipated to shift across the area
ahead of the front Thursday to shortly after midnight before
tapering off, and may reach up to 1000 J/kg near the coast from
mid morning Thursday through mid evening. An 850 mb jet around 30
knots provides for enough favorable shear to be a concern, but
deep layer lift may be a limiting factor. That said, CAMs favor
the strongest convective development mainly over the coastal
counties from mid morning Thursday into the afternoon which lines
up well with the potential for better instability in this portion
and appears the be the period of interest. Will mention in the
Key Messages that some strong storms are possible on Thursday
mainly over the coastal counties.

Dry conditions follow for Friday and Saturday, then may see some
spotty isolated showers develop late Saturday night through Sunday
night as some modest shortwaves move across the region. Dry
conditions then follow for Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures
will be mostly 5-10 degrees above seasonable levels through the
period, except for Friday and Friday which will be near or a bit
below seasonable values. A moderate risk of rip currents is in
effect through tonight, then a high risk follows for Thursday
through Friday night. A low risk of rip currents is expected for
Saturday and Sunday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

General VFR conditions over the forecast area at 23z will drop to
low end MVFR or low overnight as rain and a thunderstorm or two
move over the area. Some improvement is indicated after 18z.
Easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected through most of the
forecast, with a shift to southerly Thursday afternoon.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Light to moderate easterly winds become southeasterly tonight and
southerly on Thursday. A moderate to strong northwest flow develops
Thursday night as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow
diminishes on Friday then becomes southeasterly on Saturday and
continues into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become
necessary mainly for the open Gulf waters from late Thursday night
into Friday morning. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      56  70  47  61 /  60  90  40   0
Pensacola   59  68  51  61 /  40  90  50   0
Destin      58  68  52  64 /  30  90  60   0
Evergreen   48  68  44  60 /  40  90  60   0
Waynesboro  50  68  41  57 /  50  70  50   0
Camden      48  65  41  55 /  40  90  70   0
Crestview   50  68  47  61 /  30  90  60   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through late Friday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through late Friday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$